Active portfolio management plan - annual basis:
A. Monthly Rebalancing if any asset deviates by - 5%
B. Annual Fundamentals Check:
Review key metrics: revenue growth (>20%), net income, P/E ratios, debt-to-equity, competitive positioning.
Source data from financial platforms (e.g., Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg) or recent reports (e.g., NVDA’s $74B net income, PLTR’s 48% revenue growth).
Flag issues like declining margins or regulatory risks .
C. Annual Portfolio Performance Review:
Compare actual returns to expected CAGRs (80%, 70%, 60%, 70% etc).
Define underperformance (e.g., >20% below CAGR for two years) and shaky fundamentals (e.g., revenue growth <10%, rising debt).
Consider swapping underperformers with alternatives (e.g., replace AVGO with MSFT if fundamentals weaken).
D. Annual Black-Litterman Model:
Use fundamentals to form views (e.g., NVDA outperforms AVGO by 15% based on 56% margins).
Update market weights with current market caps (e.g., NVDA ~$3.4T).
Optimize weights to maximize Sharpe Ratio, ensuring weights sum to 100% and are non-negative.
E. Risk Monitoring and Stress Testing:
Run annual Monte Carlo simulations to estimate drawdowns (target <40% to align with tolerance).
Stress test for scenarios like a tech sector crash or Bitcoin halving.
F. Monitor Macro and Sector Trends:
Assess AI, semiconductor, and crypto trends annually (e.g., Goldman Sachs’ AI spending forecasts).
Adjust Black -Litterman views if macro shifts occur (e.g., interest rate hikes affecting PLTR’s valuation).
G. Evaluate Diversification:
Screen for additional assets (e.g., AI ETFs, stable tech stocks) to reduce sector risk.
Target correlations <0.4 for new additions.
H. Set Up Performance Benchmarks:
Compare to Nasdaq-100 and S&P 500 annually.
Track alpha and beta to ensure risk-adjusted outperformance.
I. Dynamic Risk Budgeting:
Equalize risk contributions
Adjust weights if any dominate risk.
J. Factor-Based Analysis:
Analyze growth/momentum exposure annually.
Balance with value/low-volatility assets if needed.
K. Sentiment Analysis:
Scrape X and news for sentiment (e.g., NVDA’s bullish posts).
Adjust Black - Litterman views confidences annually.