Big ass crude draws. Preliminary estimates put next week’s EIA crude storage draw as the 5th largest crude draw in history.

Jeff Bezos just explained why he laid off 30% of the Washington Post. The criticism was simple: you're a billionaire who said this was a public trust. Why not just subsidize it? His answer: because that would be cheating. "If people won't pay for our product, it's not a good enough product. It would be like poetry without rhyming. It's too easy." In other words, profitability isn't just a financial metric. It's a signal. It tells you whether you're actually providing something people value. A business that only survives on subsidy is a business that hasn't earned its relevance. He told the Post team to follow the data on every layoff decision. Cut what isn't working. One exception: investigative reporting. That's the heart of the institution and it doesn't get touched. Even after the cuts, the Post's newsroom is still larger than it was during Watergate and the Pentagon Papers. They just won the Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for their DOGE investigation. This is the same logic Bezos applied at Amazon for 30 years. Don't subsidize businesses that aren't working. Cut fast, protect the core, and make the product good enough that people choose to pay for it.

Confidently wrong is much worse than merely wrong

I think a lot of people are using AI slop nowadays to calculate production shut-in math rerouting. So let me clear it up once and for all. Pre-War: Saudi - 10.4 million b/d UAE - 3.55 million b/d Kuwait - 2.55 million b/d Iraq - 4.3 million b/d Bahrain - 0.18 million b/d Total: 20.98 million b/d (crude) Post-War: Rerouting Saudi’s East to West - 7 million b/d, but export capacity in Yanbu is only 4 million b/d. Domestic needs 2 million b/d. Saudi shut-in - 3.5-4 million b/d UAE’s Abu Dhabi pipeline - 1.8 million b/d. UAE - 1.75 million b/d Iraq - 3.5 million b/d Kuwait - 2.35 million b/d Bahrain - 0.18 million b/d Total shut-in: 11.33 to 11.83 million b/d This INCLUDES rerouting!

In my view, this is the biggest misconception in the oil market today. Generalists are looking at it from Strait of Hormuz traffic flow while oil specialists are looking at production shut-in. Generalists are saying, “Well, if there’s a peace agreement or tanker starts to come back, everything will be fine.” Oil specialists are saying, “No, shut-in barrels are barrels that will be replaced via lower storage volumes elsewhere. Tanker availability delays production shut-in returning by 1-2 months. Total barrels lost = 1 billion bbls.” I don’t think it’s anything more complicated than that. So the only way to change sentiment is for widespread fuel outages.