Joined October 2024
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Gold-Just got interesting. Having sold off on Warsh it recovered on the Iran deal signing and now has a higher low. If it breaks 4365 to the upside the next target would be 4590-4600. I am long (1/2 position) to see if it can. (NIA)
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The Iran deal- Lots of comment that it is a bad deal. It was always going to be a bad deal. The question is how does Trump frame it to not look like a bad deal. That is still not clear. Bluster maybe?
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Fed meeting-Some changes but nothing earth shattering. I expect
1. LT Rates have peaked.
3. Inflation has peaked.
For 2026 assuming the Iran deal does not break down.(NIA).
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US inflation- Warsh will no doubt talk about trimmed mean PCE inflation today that is presently at 2.2%. Truflation today is running at 1.49%. Inflation to undershoot over the next 12 months? (NIA)
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Looking forward to the Warshathon tonight at 7.30pm my time. It is going to be interesting to watch the changes he wants to make. Market reaction- will watch and see (no predictions here!).
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Iran-Still can't figure out how Trump is going to concede without making it obvious that he has conceded. I've never been any good at marketing so it is no surprse that I cannot yet figure it out.
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Iran conflict- Winners so far are Iran and China. That was not on my bingo card at the start.
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Oil price- For me there is no clarity whatsoever on where the oil price goes from here- up or down. I just have no idea! Makes decision making considerably harder.
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UK inflation-All measures below expectations. Good news for holders of LT gilts.
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Inflation-The first move to sorting out our economic problems will be to measure inflation accurately (something that went out of fashion after the mid 1980s). Unfortunatley it looks like the Fed will try to fudge the numbers further.
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Iran MOU- is signed. The easy part is over. Now the bit that should have come first- the negotiation.
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Great summary of the biggest problem with AI. Have a read.
zerohedge.com/ai/ais-core-flβ¦
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The AI bubble just got bigger! The fallout from this is going to be big. When - I have no idea but it is coming.
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Elon Musk- 's companies below
Boring co-Makes no profits
Tesla- profits falling
X-makes no money
Space x-loses money
Xai-makes no money
The richest man in the world must be a great marketer!
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Iran deal-says nothing about nuclear stockpiles(leaves it to negotiation) & leaves the straits in Iran's control. Unless Trump is folding this negotiation has not gone anywhere.
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Lobo Tiggre-suggests that it is possible that gold has peaked for the longer term. He is watching the charts. It is possible that Warsh or markets mean he is correct. Not likely but possible. My take it is a 10% possibility.
youtube.com/watch?v=YeEM5-WQβ¦
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Oil escaping the Strait- would be an explanation that fits the present price. It also fits the narrative of suppressing the oil price. How true is it? No way of knowing.
zerohedge.com/energy/trump-sβ¦
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Gold (update)- The chart shows a 5 wave down move since February. I would expect a bounce/consolidation fairly soon. (NIA)
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I listen to a lot of financial podcasts.Everyone is still positive on AI data centres (mainly through energy).No one thinks that the money tree to data centres is going to stop. I disagree- data centre investment is going to fall (& possibly fall hard) in the next 12 months (NIA)
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US economy-I have been talking recession. Only 1 reason. The podcast is below. Mid July seems to be the consensus time for this to become more obvious.
youtube.com/watch?v=S-5jHt3Tβ¦
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