I have been thinking about the ongoing crisis regarding the total fertility rate in western counties, but primarily thinking about the USA's rate of 1.62 as of last year. Anything under 2.11 will produce a declining population over time, as long as no new immigration is allowed into the country. Governments have tried various plans to help couples have kids, and really nothing has worked, as the TFR in most second and first world countries are under the replacement rate and falling. My idea, my work around this sub replacement fertility crisis is to focus societies energy on couples who have already have two kids and want more, but can't have more due to what I have dubbed - the "Big Family Barrier". The barrier is at two kids. Everything becomes much more expensive to have three to six kids. The barrier can be overcome by money. And I really don't want the government to get involved, as most things ".gov" touches turns to shit. The money needs to come from families or organized religion. The three pillars of the big family barrier are:
Housing
Transportation
Daycare
Here is how we solve the problems. A short essay.
First off is housing. The American starter home is a three bedroom, 2 bath home, somewhere between 1100~1800 sqft. In this thought experiment, the couple already owns the home and has two kids. This is already difficult for many young couples as getting into their first home is expensive. But that's another issue for another post. Couples could have three or four kids in this house and have bunk beds, but most couples in 2026 want each kid to have their own room. The price point between a 3/2BDBA house and a 5/3BDBA house is almost double in cost. Most couples can not afford to get the bigger house on their own, and stop having kids at that point. The whole point of supporting families that want to have more kids is that these couples need to have a high enough kid count to offset the couples that have zero or one kid. This is where the extended family needs to come in and give the young couple the down payment to buy the bigger house. There has been studies done where its been shown that giving couples in their 20s 100K for their inheritance is vastly more important to having large families than 400K when they are in their 50s when their parent die.
Transportation is the second barrier. Most vehicles sold today fit 2 adults and 2 car seats. The days of the station wagons in the 1970s are over. The minivan is still around, even though its not as popular like the 90s. In 2026, the most popular vehicle for the "soccer mom" is the crossover SUV, which seats 2 2. One again, there is a cost issue in getting a larger vehicle to haul all the kids around in. The transportation barrier has a lower cost to fix versus housing, but their still is a barrier.
A baseline Honda civic costs 25K, while a Toyota minivan starts at 42K, and a Chevy Suburban starts at 68K. I'm not sure if saddling young couples with a $1000 a month vehicle payment for 72 to 84 months is the way to go here. Financial hep from the family can overcome this hurdle.
Lastly is the daycare issue. This is probably the most controversial of the three as it revolves around if the mother continues to work or not when the kids are between 6 months and kindergarten. When I had my kids in daycare, it ran $1000 per kid per month. Depending on the spacing of the children, you could have up to three kids in daycare at a time. My thoughts on this revolves around if the wife has a job or a career. A job is something that you can leave for 6 to 10 years, and then just fall right back into versus a career is something that will be forever altered if you leave the workforce. Also, in 2026, many wives are the breadwinner of the family, and they have to continue to work.
There is no correct answer here. If the extended family can watch the kids instead of paying for daycare, that helps out immensely. But not all families have that option. It becomes almost pointless for the wife to work if the money that she makes doesn't even cover the daycare cost, or she makes barely more. If the extended family can financially help the young couple and allow the wife to stay home, that is awesome, but most families do not have that sort of extra money.
That's it. Combined, this three areas are the roadblock to having lots of children. Unfortunately, only a small percentage of husbands make enough money to be able to slice through the barriers alone. Especially in 2026, where society has put such a premium on women in the workforce, and have diminished the roles of males in both the labor market and society in general. We need to reward couples who want to have big families and lots of kids. That should be priority #1 for society moving forward.