Joined June 2020
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I just spent a couple of hours talking with people on discord on various projects. I'm deeply moved right now. Lots of people trying to claw their way up to a better life with crypto.
So let's build responsibly. Let's build to uplift as many of our fellow as possible. #WAGMI
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"Output increases by only 30%"
Tell me you can't do math w/o telling me you can't do math.
Are you fucking kidding me? Do you know what number that is compounded?
It's giving "my steak is too juicy and my lobster is too buttery".
People will literally complain about anything!
Jun 7
New MIT study. Code volume surges by 300%, but output increases by only 30%: The AI dividend meets an awkward reality
Autonomous AI coding agents raised commits by 180%, but releases rose only 30%.
The paper’s main idea is that software production has weak links, so faster code writing does not help as much when humans still need to review, connect, test, package, and ship the work.
The authors also check app marketplaces and find more new apps, but no increase in total usage, which means more software appeared without clear evidence that users adopted more software.
The marketplace evidence points the same way: more new apps appeared, but total usage did not rise.
The authors compare more than 100,000 GitHub developers before and after they start using 3 generations of AI coding tools, from autocomplete to more independent coding agents.
Autocomplete raised commits by 40%, interactive coding agents raised them by 140%, and autonomous coding agents raised them by 180%.
The 180% commit gain shrank to 50% for the number of projects and 30% for actual releases.
The estimated "elasticity of substitution" is 0.25 i.e. for every big improvement in AI’s usefulness, only a small amount of human work can be replaced.
Because AI can write code faster, but humans are still needed to decide what to build, check if the code works, connect it with the rest of the product, fix messy edge cases, and actually ship it.
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papers .ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6859839
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I don't survive the bear market,
the bear market survives me!
If you see me fighting with a bear,
pray for the bear!
The morale of the story is that you must develop main character energy: stop thinking that things happen to you and start happening to things with a vengeance.
For people who have survived multiple bear markets
What’s the #1 piece of advice you’d give to someone right now?
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The sheer incoherence here is astounding!
Y'all like shouting "sovereignty!!!" then turn right around to complain "why aren't our leaders doing something to pump our bags?"
Lord!😭
The magic of Ethereum is that you can just get in the trenches and build what you think can win!
Jun 5
David Hoffman: "The decision to sell my $ETH came from seeing a difficulty in the Ethereum network being market competitive."
ETH went from 90% smart contract dominance to 60%, and that gap is the difference between "ETH is money" and "ETH is just another L1 asset."
What's missing is a killer instinct at the top (the EF).
FT @BitcoinJesusETH @TrustlessState @CamiRusso @DefiantNews.
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Bold of you to say! I work in finance, I build the best kind of games: real life games that make other people's dreams come true.
every software engineer is just someone who wanted to make video games and quietly gave up on that dream
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Jesse Morningstar (is hiring 3 frontend engineers) retweeted
This is spectacularly shortsighted! Like all assets BTC is just a claim on a future something.
The FIC is dangerous precisely bc everything it does changes how that claim settles.
So it does not matter one bit whether you self-custody or not when they control price formation.
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Her: what do you like doing for fun on Sundays?
Me: I like engaging in fierce academic duels about obscure aspects of monetary theory with a swarm of research agents. Come over, I'll show you my big collection of citations.
The Agents:
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Saylor is a terrible businessman. Just wow. Man.
Imagine being the guy who doesn't understand that a company that issues a credit instrument that does not require collateralization has a ridiculous competitive advantage over a company that does!
youtube.com/watch?v=80N3_9qq…
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It is senselessness like this that makes me bearish on Bitcoin.
So my first high conviction prediction of the year:
Bitcoin ends the year below $20,000.
Prepare for the wrathful return of the Gods of The Copybook Headings.
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So much of what we call genius consists in looking intensely at the same dumb or incomprehensible shit for years and years and from as many angles as possible so that you can hopefully see something relevant, or even magnificent, everyone else missed.
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Some people seem to believe that virtue is demonstrated by how relentlessly they criticize those they believe to be evil.
In truth virtue only sees and nurtures the best in people so that it can bloom further; virtue is having the grace to discount the inevitable human nonsense.
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Current events have led me to conclude that civilization is suffering from two devastating diseases:
1. We lack the patience to systematically investigate why others have different views.
2. As a result we default to the most uncharitable/biased characterization of their views.
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Laughing. Crying. Throwing up.
Because this is way too accurate.
Except I wake up once and get back to work because my mind is always finding new ways to make the products better, to reach out to more partners, to go the extra mile and offer the world extraordinary solutions.
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This is such a nice shot!
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1/3 Why I think that Christianity is the most important philosophical system ever created:
All reasoning in Christianity begins with the concept of being wrong. Christianity assumes that being wrong and doing wrong is the initial, natural condition for all of us. Here's the key:
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2/3 This assumption or axiom implies therefore that practicing continuous forgiveness, both asking and giving forgiveness, is the only way to maintain healthy relations that allow us to not only survive but thrive.
This concept is forgotten or not fully appreciated these days.
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3/3 It's a given that in our dealings with people they'll eventually shock or displease us. This is why this culture of grudges, outrage, and constant offense we're evolving is dangerous for civilization.
We need forgiveness by the boatloads today.
So forgive me for my wrongs.
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A clear symptom of hubris is thinking that one has such perfect insight into reality and events that they can always pass correct pronouncements and absolute judgement on the beliefs, motivations, and actions of others like an omniscient god would.
This is so common these days.
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1/3 Had a very interesting session asking AI to draft a rational policy framework for me if I were a world leader making fact-based decisions with no moral ambiguity in the post Epic Fury world.
I was not prepared for the answer, check out that last line in bold.
Wild.
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2/3 Also asked the AI to provide a clear policy recommendations on whether or not Iran should be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.
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3/3 Prompt: "But based on your policy recommendation, did President Trump have a choice? What other viable course of action was available to him? Were there viable alternatives or is this the best possible course of action?"
Do with this information what you will.
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