Funded Futures Trader | ICT/SMC | NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE | Job 22:28 | Use code JIMMY for best discounts!
Joined September 2023
- Tweets 3,597
- Following 397
- Followers 1,766
- Likes 15,536
362 Photos and videos
Jun 12
Banned
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Jun 12
Double winner today!
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Jun 12
Somedays you're the hammer and somedays you're the nail.
Trade 1: Nail. Got Trumped
Trade 2: Nail. Tradovate closed my position early for it to absolutely rocket to my targets.
It happens. You accept the potential for loss before you click the buttons because ANYTHING can happen, and some days it just does.
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Jun 12
Want to win a Free Lucid $50k Flex? Follow, share this and tag 2 people. You have 15 mins.
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JimmyFutures retweeted
Jun 11
Day 14 of #MachoMerchWatch
Still no shirt . Still no tracking. Still no closure.
This isn’t merch anymore.
It’s an emotional baggage swing trade
@TradingLucid
Jun 10
Day 13 of #MachoMerchWatch
Still no shirt.
Still no update from @TradingLucid
I remain emotionally overleveraged, spiritually underfunded, and dangerously close to averaging down on hope.
I will endure.
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Jun 11
TLDR-to break even on props you need to make $3000 on one out of 20 evals if your cost is $150. Very doable.
Jun 10
Yesterday I showed you how Gambler’s Ruin blows up single accounts.
Let’s talk EV
The prop firm model is one of the most asymmetric bets available to a retail trader IF you understand expected value.
EV = (probability of winning × what you win) − (probability of losing × what you lose)
Every bet you’ll ever take in life runs through that formula. Most traders never run it on the biggest trade they make: buying the eval itself.
When you buy a $150 eval, your maximum loss is $150. Not the $50K account size. Not the $2K drawdown. The drawdown is the firm’s risk capital you’re renting it. Your actual exposure is the eval cost.
Compare that to trading your own money. To get $2,000 of real risk capital, you need $2,000. With an eval, you get the same effective drawdown for $150. You’re buying risk capital at over 90% off.
Now the EV math. IF a funded trader who reaches payout pulls an average of $3,000 before the account ends. The breakeven question becomes: how often do I need to get there for this to be a EV bet?
$150 ÷ $3,000 = 5%.
Pass and reach payout just ONE time in twenty attempts and you break even.
Anything above a 5% success rate and every eval you buy is a positive expected value bet. A trader with a real edge and real discipline might convert 20-30%. Run the formula: 0.25 × $3,000 − $150 = $600 EV per eval. That’s the trade.
This is the same structure as buying a call option: defined, capped downside. Large, open upside. Wall Street pays billions for that payoff profile. Retail traders get it for the price of a dinner.
But here’s the part that keeps this honest and it’s where most people destroy the math:
The EV only works if the $150 stays $150.
Blow the eval, tilt, and instantly buy a reset. Then another. Then another. Now you’ve spent $750 in a weekend and your required success rate just quintupled.
The firms aren’t profitable because the model is rigged. They’re profitable because traders revenge-buy resets the same way they revenge trade.
The asymmetry is real. The edge is real. But it’s only available to the trader who treats each eval like a planned position with defined risk , not a slot machine pull.
Cap your loss. Respect the streak math from yesterday’s post. Let the asymmetry do the heavy lifting.
That’s how you trade the prop firm model instead of letting it trade you.
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Jun 10
One more day on the fundeds and it'll be payday again. I'm not taking any payout from the @Topstep live account until I get the balance higher. I could request a little over $8k on that, but I have goals I want to achieve there first. Should qualify for more of my XFA equity on that account this Friday, but I want to get the total balance over $100k before I take any payouts on it. Might be a long slog since I can only trade 5 MNQ on it, but we'll get there eventually. Gotta make @MichaelPatak proud.
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Jun 10
If you INSIST on using the CPI method tomorrow, feel free to use code JIMMY. @TradingLucid
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Jun 10
Prop firm P&L’s don’t matter anymore. Previously, they mattered because you could take out half of what you made once you qualified. Then the payout caps came. Idc if you made 8 bajillion dollars on your $50k funded account. The only thing that matters is whether any of that actually made it to your bank account.
Strange to say, but P&L’s don’t matter. Payouts do, though. Quit trading for ego to see how big you can get your P&L and focus on the payouts. Start putting money into personal live accounts or take advantage of the Live programs prop firms offer. No, they’re not as good as they used to be, but neither is the prop space as a whole.
Charlatans, scammers and LARPers rule the space trying to get you to believe in something you’ll never achieve because they have you focused on the wrong things. Manage risk, qualify for payouts and trade a rules-based system.
Then you’ll win.
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The urge to take the trade is not a command. It’s a signal.
Most urges to click peak and fade in 90 seconds. Your only job is to outlast it.
Stop fighting it. Name it out loud, “I’m feeling the urge right now” and watch it lose its grip.
Every time you decode the urge instead of obeying it, it gets quieter. That’s how you stop overtrading. Try it and you’ll see. You’ll thank me later.
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Jun 9
Give the man what he wants @ajtradinglucid
Jun 9
Day 12 of #MachoMerchWatch
This has officially become a long-term asset with no volume…...and nothing but emotional drawdown.
Still holding. Still coping. Still no shirt. @TradingLucid
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Jun 9
Trading has changed my life. For the better… I guess it could go either way depending on who you are, but for me, it’s better.
Started with @Topstep in Nov of 2023. Those were the days. Uncapped payouts and uncapped expectations.
Things have changed SIGNIFICANTLY in the prop space since then. Much more competition and as a result the space has clamped down so each firm can manage their risks. We’ve seen firms go under (seemingly one a week) and new firms pop up every day.
I’m beginning to think there may be a prop firm bubble. I get ads all the time “start your own prop firm in 7 days” or “start your own prop firm for as little as $3,000.”
The space is growing, and that’s great, but some of you are going to get stung when the bubble bursts and some of these fly by night props close up shop. If a prop hasn’t been around for at least 6 months, you shouldn’t be using them unless you have a good foundation somewhere else. I have accounts at most of the major shops, so I’d be okay to try a one-off at a new shop. I wouldn’t promote them, but o could afford to give them a shot.
Also, if your “mentor” promotes some scammy POS prop firm like @Futureselitecom that routinely denies payouts or some new people that pops out every ten minutes in an effort to gain market share for their code, find someone else. This space is about more than codes and marketing. It should be about education and wanting to see others succeed and a kind the pitfalls we’ve experienced along the way.
That ends my stream of consciousness post of the day.
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Jun 9
He’s not wrong
The only thing that's stopping you from being profitable is the fact that you keep losing trades. You need to start winning them
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