original.antiwar.com/joseph_…
I wrote this about one year ago today... Still applies... In fact I think I did a pretty good job of analyzing the situation in retrospect.
The OpEd compared Venezuela to Noriega's Panama, and highlighted the dangers of these precedents in International law... And that argument is based on my concern about US hypocrisy about issues like the ICC, claims of extraterritorial jurisdiction, and the idea that because we are the "good guys", we don't have to play by the rules...
My real thought this morning, however, is a bit more unsettling, in that this is consistent with Trump's desire to move to his vision of a more stable multipolar world, in which the US, Russia, and China have full free latitude in their backyards as regional hegemons to impose their will. In his model, the US can do what it feels necessary for stability in its backyard, while Russia is allowed the same latitude in its sphere of influence (consistent with his desire to end Ukraine's war with Russia getting the territories it wants, so he can make nice with Russia), and China in it's backyard (I wouldn't be sleeping well after this if I were Taiwan...). I am not advocating this world view, but it seems that is where Trump wants to go, as he sees this as more stable, easier to maintain, less expensive for the US, and a world in which the US, China and Russia can get along better with each other as regional powers with regional rights to dominate their spheres of influence. Europe should be nervous, as should Taiwan and the Philippines, but I do see the logic in suggesting that Western Europe's interests no longer coincide with ours...
Anyway, the Venezuelan people will probably benefit from this in the near term, as the situation there has gotten so bad that change can only lead to better things. I have worked there for the past 30 years as it descended from prosperity to chaos, and still have an active project there. The poor people supported Maduro not because he did things that benefitted them, but because he did things that made life worse for the rich... The end result was the entire society collapsed into the worst refugee crisis in the world, despite the fact that Venezuela has the best harbors and ports, beach resorts, oil and beef and other natural resources in the entire hemisphere and should be the richest, not the poorest country, but decades of mismanagement brought us here. There is nowhere to go but up. I do not like the US engaing in regime change operations, but much like Noriega's Panama, there really is every reason to expect this will benefit the people already in the short to medium term... Its a dangerous precedent, especially for Taiwan and Ukraine, but pragmatically we have to wait and see what happens and hope for the best. What's done is done - Maduro will end up where Noriega was, right or wrong, so let's hope for a better future for my friends and colleagues in Venezuela...