Joined June 2024
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26 Aug 2025
The prime directive of civilization is to organize labor and resources into systems and institutions that optimize the scientific, productive, and human well-being outputs.
The goal is to organize an iterative civilization, which treats human civilization like an engineering problem.
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Jun 14
The university system and academics became decadent. They thought they were inseparable from American culture. They believed they were irreplaceable in American civilization.
Don’t use your own eyes and ears, you can only learn through our academic rituals.
Don’t use your own eyes and ears, you can only hire and measure candidates that have our stamp of approval.
Everyone knows most academics pick minor incremental topics to research for funding. Nothing too edgy, nothing to basic, just the right middle ground that’ll get approved for funding. I think they spend half their time in committee meetings, teaching, or grading papers instead of actual scientific work.
Not to mention elite over production creating an entire academic class of adjunct professors without tenure.
There are fewer and fewer real scientists and scholars, it’s mostly just bureaucracy now.
If you something isn’t working for the students, the professors, or society, it’s just a bad system.
Jun 14
This is a bigger trend. Cracks forming fast. Lots of schools are going to fail.
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Jun 14
From just a photo of our cities, I wonder what aliens can infer about humans, our psychology, our biology, and evolutionary history.
They probably immediately deduce we’re social, we like following the crowd, and status seeking.
But I wonder how far you can reasonably go.
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Jun 11
If you haven’t noticed, the hate against Anthropic is well coordinated.
@sama knows what he’s doing, and I wonder how he’s going to attack Elon.
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Jun 10
Just get bigger, literally all you have to do
More mass
More energy
More intelligence
More build power
The solution is to just macro like crazy
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Jun 8
“Mind your own business”
“Let’s not get political”
“Get in line, wait for your turn”
These are evil phrases that weakens civilization and make the population docile.
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Jun 8
“Get in line, wait for your turn”
The only ones who actually follow this advice are the docile members of our population. Anyone with the slightest bit of agency doesn’t do this. Nobody running a business, competing in the market, or trying to get a promotion and do well waits for their turn.
Obviously in a society you need some civility and order at the buffet line, but it’s more of a symptom of the culture and what we’re teaching kids. This kind of phrase is used culturally and it’s getting seared into our psyche.
Get in line and wait your turn for college apps. Get in line and apply for jobs online and wait for your turn for an interview. Do you know how many videos there are of unemployed college grads. They don’t know what else to do but keep applying, working a part time job on the side, and posting on the internet.
Do you think Elon or Jensen or Google are just waiting for their turn for HBM allocations or are they being proactive about it. It’s literally just the general public that does this. After 12 or 13 when kids get civilized, erase this low-agency phrase from their psyche.
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Jun 8
“Let’s not get political”
It’s odd how we are a “Democracy” or a representative republic, and freedom of speech was so important to the founding fathers that it was literally the first amendment they wrote down. Lots of people died fighting for that right, to be able to talk about your rulers and have a stake in the course of your nation. And then we just go and self-censor ourselves at work, friendships, and public spaces from talking about politics.
That’s literally what you’re supposed to do, particularly when you live in a Democracy and are supposed to be voting on things, you’re literally supposed to be talking about politics to each other. How insanely stupid and backwards that. The only ones who benefit are the political class. So instead of talking about politics amongst yourselves, you can only get all your ideas from the media.
Do you see what’s going on here. Literally the single stupidest place to enforce “don’t talk about politics” culturally is in a democracy. Literally the worst place to do this.
Talk about politics regardless how it makes people feel, you’re supposed to be an informed voter, not some cattle.
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Jun 8
“Mind your own business”
What goes around comes around, we live in a society and everything you say or do to another person affects the society you live in, because we are naturally very social and herd-like.
This is an incredibly decadent thing to believe in. If your neighbor is raising their children terribly, that is indeed your business because what if those children grow up fcked up and commit crimes and degeneracy. & what happens when there are 100000s of those parents doing that simultaneously. That is totally going to affect society and you.
People say mind your own business because they think society can afford to take the hit and it’s not worth the confrontation. But you’ll never say mind your own business to a family member who’s being neurotic, lazy, temperamental, or making the wrong decisions. You care for them and you want them to do well. Why do we stop ourselves from doing that in society?
It’s a great way to self-regulate ourselves with culture and without explicit laws. You need a culture that allows people to confront and correct net-negative behavior.
Another key aspect is, since we no longer have a cohesive value system of what is right or wrong and our culture actively hates standards, you’re not allowed to instill your morality to others, (unless it’s the value system of the bureaucracy).
Why else do you think our society is dying in front of our eyes right now?
A society must have a shared value system of right and wrong and what we collectively want to achieve. The people need a socially acceptable way to confront and correct net-negative behavior. This is non-negotiable for the long-term health of a society, we need to do net-positive things for civilization or it will decay and collapse.
It is the degenerate filth who actively stripped that away these natural self-regulating mechanisms from us through devious, cunning, and sinister means. Remember growing up people would say, “Don’t judge me” or “Don’t judge others”.
I will absolutely enforce civilizational standards upon you, degenerate filth. It is actually my duty or else over generations our civilization will decline and collapse, as you can clearly see now.
Degenerates, decadent people, criminals, foreign agents, and net negatives want you to strip away standards and dilute universal values. This is anti civilizational, this is evil.
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Jun 7
It’s not a hard question, low birth rates simply mean we are approaching the carrying capacity of our environment.
The systems, institutions, technology, and productive outputs of our societies today have a natural carrying capacity.
Capitalism has a much higher one than communism, but both have a carrying capacity of some # of humans with our given technology.
Blaming culture or wokeness is nonsensical, Kim Jong Un literally held an all-women’s assembly encouraging them to have more kids because the birth rates were low. Can literally find that video on YouTube.
I can’t believe this is still an “open” question. There are no developed country with a birth rate above 2, and that’s because they are literally, developed, and are close to the carrying capacity of our technology, economic system, and the way we go about doing things today.
From a biological perspective, do you really think we never had selection pressures from over population? There are deeply ingrained mechanisms within us to slow down. Somehow, someway, we intrinsically know when the environment is reaching capacity and then our brains gives us reasons to stop.
This is literally a known thing in ecology, it’s just more primitive and natural with animals. But I’m willing to bet humans have experienced selection pressures with over population as well and there are mechanisms that allow us to detect and then influence our psychology and actions.
Jun 7
No matter what your theory about birth rate collapse is, there’s some data point that disproves it. Japan didn’t have the pill when fertility collapsed. There are highly patriarchal countries where fertility is collapsing. It’s collapsing in countries that are still poor. It’s collapsing in places with more generous social support for families. It’s almost like a psychic alien just decided to phase humans out.
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26 Aug 2025
The prime directive of civilization is to organize labor and resources into systems and institutions that optimize the scientific, productive, and human well-being outputs.
The goal is to organize an iterative civilization, which treats human civilization like an engineering problem.
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Jun 7
Excerpt from 2500:
The Exponential Renaissance, beginning in the 21st century, was the transformative period during which human civilization transitioned from operating under the constraints of human nature to operating under first principles enabled by the manufacture of labor and intelligence at an industrial scale.
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Jun 7
THIS IS WHAT AI WAS MADE FOR
StarCraft Live-Action | Terran vs Zerg Cinematic Movie Trailer youtu.be/bvA8fA0yhjw?si=HnWe… via @YouTube
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Jun 2
The price of goods and services may go down, but the price to compete in those markets will go up.
Jun 2
The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening
- Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs
- For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval
- On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect
- This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API
I shared more on this here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/…
- And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed)
- Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1.
More on open source inference provider raises here: x.com/Shaughnessy119/status/…
- And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th
- Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free
- This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models
- Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months
- So go forward, what happens?
- I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter)
- It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122%
- With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it)
- The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses
- Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more
- This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage
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May 31
Im really really glad the head of ai labs like Elon, Sam, and Dario don’t like each other, particularly against Sam.
Would be good if there are more fierce rivalry that includes Demis and the Chinese labs
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