Of course thatâs your contention. You just finished The Big Score, think copper porphyries are a cheat code, and youâre tweeting NPV models like theyâre gospel.
Right now, itâs all about "grade-tonnage curves," "cut-off grades," and âstrip ratiosâ⊠you even printed out a JORC checklist.
Next month, youâll discover tungsten in Nevada and start saying things like âitâs not about price, itâs about supply chain securityâ at the bar.
By fall, youâll YOLO into a junior gold explorer in Alaska, seeing the multi million ounce resource at 2g/t, and forget itâs refractory and sits under a glacier, youâll tell your buddies thinking youâve outsmarted Newmontâs geologists.
Next year, youâll be at a sketchy mining conference in Vancouver, shilling a zinc project with a 7-year mine life and no permits, calling it âa generational buy.â
Youâll throw around âmispriced upsideâ for a company that hasnât hit guidance since the 2011 commodities boom.
You havenât even begun to suffer yet.
You havenât bought into a âworld-class discoveryâ that turned out to be a twinned drill hole hyped by a shady promo firm, with millions of founders shares issued at a fraction of a penny.
You havenât emailed IR about a delayed 43-101 report five times, got ghosted, and still averaged down out of pure spite.
You havenât stared at a flow sheet so long you start muttering âMerril-Croweâ in your sleep.
You think this is about numbers.
Itâs not.
Itâs about pain tolerance.
Come back when youâve held a micro-cap explorer for five years, survived two reverse splits, and still called it a win.
Then weâll talk geo-alpha and investing in Lundin group companies
Of course thatâs your contention. Youâre a first-year deep value investor.
You just finished The Intelligent Investor, think net-nets are a cheat code, and youâre tweeting P/B ratios like theyâre scripture.
Right now, itâs all about Ben Graham, "margin of safety," "cigar butts," you even printed out a checklist.
Next month, youâll discover Klarman and start saying things like ârisk is not volatilityâ in casual conversation.
By fall, youâll hit Greenblatt, run a Magic Formula screen, and convince yourself youâve reverse-engineered Buffettâs brain.
Next year, youâll be at an obscure value conference in Omaha, pitching a furniture liquidation business with asbestos liabilities and calling it âunloved but cash rich.â
Youâll use terms like âmispriced optionalityâ to describe a company that hasnât turned a profit since 1998.
You havenât even begun to suffer yet.
You havenât held a 0.4x book stock that got delisted to the Expert Market and now trades by appointment only.
You havenât emailed IR five times with no response and still doubled your position out of spite.
You havenât stared at a balance sheet so long you start dreaming in GAAP.
You think this is about numbers.
Itâs not.
Itâs about pain tolerance.
Come back when youâve held garbage for five years, been diluted twice, and still called it a win.
Then weâll talk deep value.