I am not surprised with this line considering I sort of knew books would price them closely based on H2H, Ruud beating djoko yesterday and the fact Ruud beat Stef in straights in their last meeting 2 months ago. But if it was this simple everyone would just asses these things and churn out winners, everything has a more deeper story to it and thats why I feel we have a considerable edge in tsitsipas today. Lets address everything one by one, Tsitsipas was horribly out of form for almost past whole of year and when they met in mexico he didnt show a level anywhere near what he is showing in this tournament which is close to his best. Ruud beating djokovic was no shock to anyone, almost anyone who watched Djoker against ADM sort of knew this was very much on cards and possible, Joker this year has been struggling and he looked gassed out since ADM battle, This win has no real relevance to the match today.
Stef has been so out of form that public has forgotten his actual clay pedigree, Before the next gen of Alcaraz sinner and co came to fore Tsitipas was the clay god after Nadal and he has actually even beaten Nadal on clay.
He is a tier above than ruud on this surface when fit and firing.
Even the matchup suits him a lot, there is no area where Ruud can trouble him or does better than stef.
I have him as a much larger favourite today and these odds can't be passed.