Shipping
Joined August 2013
- Tweets 110
- Following 991
- Followers 600
- Likes 459
5 Photos and videos
4 Aug 2022
Dry bulk stocks think the FFA cal sell off is just a liquidation and choosing to ignore or just oblivious? Either way, long cals vs short dry equities looking like great relative value
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19 Jun 2022
Looking forward to seeing old friends and new!
19 Jun 2022
Excited to be in NYC for the @MarineMoney conference this week. First time we have been able to get together in person as a #shipping community since 2019! It’s crazy to think it has been *3 years.*
Very busy schedule, but if you’re around and/or at the conf, let me know!
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19 Jun 2022
Have to admit, my suit/tie game has lost a few steps since the last one of these 😬
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16 Jun 2022
👀
15 Jun 2022
Exxon $XOM says U.S. government could look at measures including waivers of Jones Act provisions and some fuel specifications to increase supplies.
#JonesAct #OOTT #Crude #oilandgas
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15 Jun 2022
Great stuff, continued momentum for OSG, but still not far from last summer's price!
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15 Jun 2022
Exited EURN / FRO Merger trade yesterday
- Opportunity to load up following EURN Directors elected and prior to the first private tender by FRO
- FRO NAV has outperformed EURN since original announcement (LR2s, scrubbers)
- Risk reward no longer compelling
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15 Jun 2022
Most interesting part of tracking the trade was the implied merger arb (using the 1.45 exchange ratio) exceeding pre merger announcement levels following EURN Directors being elected over CMB nominees
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15 Jun 2022
There was a lot of hair. Premature announcement, CMB. I thought (and think) the deal makes sense
- EURN shareholders want to participate in tanker markets
- Combined entity will trade better than EURN alone
- Hugo appointed to lead seemed to align dealmaking incentives
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14 Jun 2022
Meanwhile Jones Act fundamentals have improved and ships coming out of layup...
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14 Jun 2022
With this backdrop, trying to think where this could go wrong:
• Product Demand Destruction
• Reduced Geopolitical Disruptions
• Jones Act Changes: very unlikely, black swan, but could be a hot topic with inflation / energy prices
Anything I am missing?
13 Jun 2022
What would you buy here?
8%
SBLK @ $26.25
50%
SHIP @ $1.00
25%
Cape Cal 23 @ $21,625
17%
Smx Cal 23 @ $16,900
12 votes • Final results
Luke Justus retweeted
7 Jun 2022
Government has invoked the Defense Production Act at least 6 times since 2020 when a shortage has occurred for a strategic product. Natural gas today fits this description. Rather than responding with helpful policies, gov’t helped create the shortage & is making things worse. 1/
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26 May 2022
Really surprised how some of these dry bulk stocks hanging in there
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1/ Supply vs demand in shipping:
We spend 99% of our time analysing the demand side of shipping. I would argue this stems from the GFC of 2008.
As the financial system was falling apart and counter party risk went through the roof, drybulk rates plummeted.
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3 Jan 2022
After 15 years in the shipping industry, 2022 is the most exciting set up I’ve seen as an investor / trader.
- Constructive Supply Side
- Less Capital / More Expensive Capital
- Energy Transition (orderbook impact, inefficient vessel trading)
- Improved Investability
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3 Jan 2022
Improved Investability: Many (not all!) public shipping companies have addressed governance issues, particularly those that emerged from restructurings. Balance sheets are largely healthy. Dry FFA volumes have increased.
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3 Jan 2022
This is shipping, and there will be unexpected events and winners and losers. There will also be market mispricings, inefficiencies, and misunderstandings - which is where the great opportunities will come. Looking forward to 2022 and beyond!
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