Context to this:
- UAE - Iran officials met this week (Bloomberg)
- Iran has not attacked UAE since May 4, instead focused on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan
- Abu Dhabi's buy-in critical for Trump-Iran deal to go through
Trump on Truth Social: "The terms that Iran leaked out...have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST!"
What's the latest with Iran, China, Russia, North Korea, and jihadists? We catch you up in our biweekly newsletter, The Adversarial. (For WOTR members)
warontherocks.com/strike-cou…
Why might lead the Houthis to seriously threaten shipping in the Red Sea? I talked with Greg Johnsen on the Warcast about the risk. (For WOTR members)
warontherocks.com/episode/wa…
That Iran won't meet directly with US negotiators -- even trilaterally -- is both worrisome and emblematic of where the IRGC decision-makers are on the deal. A party in a hurry would welcome a chance to bridge remaining gaps directly. And Iran isn't. Speaks volumes.
🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇷Iranian and U.S. officials held parallel talks with Qatari mediators in Doha over the past two days, according to a regional source
🇺🇸🇶🇦🇮🇷The Qataris tried to arrange a trilateral meeting to directly negotiate on the remaining gaps, but the Iranians refused
With the internet partially back on in Iran, so is the IG content. Iranian content creators are poking fun at the tit-for-tat strikes and the ceasefire.
"POV: Status of the ceasefire" 😅
We're all the shadow fleet now:
"The average number of 'dark' transits has increased from two to six in the past week, according to Windward. The uptick had in part been due to aerial assistance from the US military."
Obviously just a small fraction of pre-war levels. When Wright says transits are "rising very meaningfully", there's a pretty strong base effect at work, to say the least
It does help Gulf producers drain storage, which will make it quicker for them to restart production once the strait reopens. But it also means less of a glut available for the months-long period between when that happens and when new tankers arrive
And by easing pressure on prices—and thus on Trump—it may help prolong the overall closure of the strait, which is ultimately a negative for supply ft.com/content/c7e5bbbd-65ed…
Check out this article from @hahellyer on why expanding the Abraham Accords is an idea that's going nowhere (at least under current circumstances)
warontherocks.com/wrong-audi…
Most Lebanese can't explain why they're at war. The strategic decisions are being made in Tehran. (Members Only)
Listen here: warontherocks.com/episode/wa…
RIP Marjane Satrapi, a brilliant mind and a wonderful soul, gone far too soon. Like many Iranians she remained dedicated to her homeland despite decades in exile:
“I call Iran home because no matter how long I live in France, and despite the fact that I feel also French after all these years, to me the word ‘home’ has only one meaning: Iran.”
“No matter how much I am in love with Paris and its indescribable beauty, Tehran with all its ugliness will in my eyes forever be the ‘bride’ of all cities around the world.”
nytimes.com/2026/06/04/world…
Color me cynical, but it seems like there's no way Hezbollah would agree. And Israel knows that. So negotiations are mostly to display to Washington that Israel is trying to be reasonable while knowing it can continue the war.
Listen I think it's entirely plausible that Trump said this to Netanyahu. It's almost a rite of passage for every American president since Clinton
But one thing we should remember from the Biden years is that the "POTUS swore at Netanyahu" news cycle is often followed, some days or weeks later, by Netanyahu finding a way to continue doing the thing that prompted the call in the first place axios.com/2026/06/01/trump-n…
Does the Quad still matter? We asked four experts to consider the perspectives from the U.S., India, Australia, and Japan. (for War on the Rocks members) warontherocks.com/does-the-q…