I appreciate that we now have reasonable and evidence-based analysis in crypto! But going to take the other side of most of the points mad here 1/ Re "there's no real collecting" I think this is a misread of what the product and pmf is here. The gacha and pack opening is a core part of the experience being offered 2/ The business is very whale driven Yes, but this is completely unsurprising. Reality is many many businesses are whale-driven and they are still amazing businesses - igaming - Hyperliquid - Pretty much every mobile game The difference between Cards and these other mega-whale driven businesses is that you can see it. Only thing that matters is being good at whale acquisition and whale retention, and CC has been very good at this. 3/ Margins halved as volumes grew This seems more like savvy growth strategy? When your business and the market overall is in take-off mode, why would you solve for margin expansion? I would argue that maybe CC could be more aggressive to grow market share. Business is highly profitable as-is 4/ Token value accrual and unlocks Yes, weakest part of the story for CC. But there are no outside equity holders and for the growth trajectory the business is on, i think easy to argue it's reasonably valued even accounting for a "fair market cap" that accounts for investor unlocks. Would love for CC to have clear buyback guidelines soon, but tbh if they can use the money to grow faster, im fine with no buybacks.

I love onchain markets Ppl randomly slam 30-100% of ADV of a tokens in a single order orderbook cinema

The only thing surprising about this state of affairs is that it took this long to get to a point where there is no bid. I was surprised both when the "altcoin" complex came back at all in 2024, and when it bounced back in 2025.

$GEOD is probably the token I own that I've done the least modeling work on. Investment case is simply: Many robot coming. Robot need RTK. @GEODNET best RTK (and hard to replicate)

Fun fact: in my financial model for $CARDS in January, my blowout scenario for @Collector_Crypt was to get to $1.8b in gacha volumes They are pacing well above $2b over last 30 days.... @TuomHolmberg and team are firing on all cylinders. So cool to see

So.... $MSTR ~= $LUNA confirmed?

I've been bearish on L1 / L2 tokens for a long time. But the only one I could see potentially justifying the valuation and coming back from here is $SOL. Figured, I'd share my POV given I have the unique vantage point of someone who spent ~5 years as part of the @solana team and now manages a liquid fund that holds no $SOL atm. My best guess at what the triggers for the @solana / $SOL comeback story are laid out below. No guarantees the triggers happen, but if they do, I think $SOL could [for a third time] run it back turbo. --------------- 1/ Solana facilitates many of the apps and tokens with strong price action in 2026. --- @Collector_Crypt and $CARDS is already one and I suspect the run will continue. Crazy business --- I have a strong hunch for what the next breakout will be, but not going to say more atm. Let's just say, the memecoin casino brought the retail energy back to Solana in 2023/2024. I think we will see history rhyme and that casinos of various flavors could bring retail back to Solana 2/ Solana continues to take share from CEXs as the best place for spot trading --- What's been happening with @sunrisedefi and stuff like: x.com/vibhu/status/206292475… is underrated atm --- Solana is increasingly a great spot venue for tokens of all kinds and if the network can continue growing RWA volumes as well, even better --- @MetaDAOProject and ownership coins are also a very interesting spot asset ecosystem (of seed stage startups) 3/ One or more perps platform on Solana also gain relevance --- Whether it's @PhoenixTrade or some other platform I am not sure, but some platform has to make Solana relevant in the most important line of business in crypto --- I think this is the most uncertain of my triggers 4/ 1 2 3 above also translate into increases in network fees / REV --- it's not good enough for Solana to be home for financial activity. The network also needs to prove it can monetize that activity. I am highly confident in 1 and 2 happening. Medium confidence in 4. Least confidence in 3 --------------- If we see the above happening, I think the narrative will turn. Solana will be once again be seen as the L1 with a credible shot at the biggest vision of "house of finance" because it is also making progress in payments and various institutional efforts.

My guess is Saylor has not sold any more BTC. A risk mgmt / financial prudence mindset is not what going him and $MSTR to where it is today. Live by the degen up-only mentality, die by the degen up-only mentality

And if Saylor does not 🤫🤫😅😅

If Hyperliquid is Binance perps [no KYC] Solana is becoming Binance spot [no KYC] Very cool

Pretty cool. More stuff like this is how $SOL gets its mojo back

Shout out to @0xsmac for his TG group Posts consistently interesting reads

Sure, if BTC / majors fall 50% from here, everything likely gets dragged down. But the massive outperformance of some tokens YTD tells us that nature of token markets are shifting. If we are not already in the "new paradigm", I think we are in the process of transitioning to it

Not sure if AI / privacy coins ripping currently is: Bullish: because risk appetite is back in coins or Bearish: because we're seeing momentum / narrative chasing again and this kind of capital leaves as fast as it comes

Issue for Pendle historically has been that majority of it's activity was a function of the circular token economy and as a result, highly cyclical Cool to see that changing

Last 2 years we had the worst bull market in crypto Now we are in the best bear market

If GLPs dampen addictive behavior in general, then we'll eventually see their effects on gambling: declines in sports betting, casinos, many parts of crypto Strongest force going against the "gambli-fication" of the economy imo

Not just taking a coinbase-esque deal from Circle last year was one of the few clear misses from the HYPE team imo Cool to see this course correction. Not sure most people realize that this can actually be a large rev driver over time (e.g., IBKR generates most of its income from NIM, not trading fees)

we have all seen saylors buyside execution sellside gonna be a movie