Actuary. Australian. Receives no payment for Covid analysis. All views my own.
Joined August 2020
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Pinned Tweet
28 Jul 2024
The Mortality Working Group has today published our Research Paper covering excess mortality in 2020-2023.
actuaries.asn.au/public-poli…
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1 Sep 2025
Happy international actuaries day to all my actuarial friends!
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Karen Cutter retweeted
24 Apr 2025
A fantastic data visualisation by @CaseyBriggs showing how the decline in national support for the major parties translates into declining support seat by seat, increasing the number of contest involving Independents and minor parties. abc.net.au/news/2025-04-24/e…
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So #covidinquiry commissioned serious research by academics at Oxford Uni into vaccine safety. Concludes “best evidence” suggests jabs saved millions of lives. And any suggestion they caused excess mortality is “low quality and has been in many cases misinterpreted.” A short 🧵
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5 Jan 2025
The Centre for Population released their 2024 population statement just before Christmas. Includes projections of births, deaths and net migration that feed into Govt decision making.
population.gov.au/publicatio…
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24 Dec 2024
Will Sydney airport on Boxing Day be …
10%
Quiet
3%
Normal
87%
Chaotic
30 votes • Final results
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19 Dec 2024
Covid prevalence in NSW has increased this week, but indicators suggest it is still substantially less than at the same time last year.
With Christmas now less than a week away, I’m hopeful this means the peak of this wave will also be much lower than last year.
19 Dec 2024
COVID-19 has increased to a moderate level of activity. Whooping cough activity is still high, but decreasing. Stay up to date with vaccinations and stay at home if you are sick to protect yourself and your loved ones.
Full report: health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
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Karen Cutter retweeted
16 Dec 2024
Vaccines and "placebo control"
Placebo-controlled trials compare a vaccine to an inactive substance (placebo). This helps measure how effective the vaccine is. In the case of vaccines, often, the placebo is not "saline", but rather a previous vaccine or vaccine solution.
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17 Dec 2024
The Australian actuaries Mortality Working Group has released excess mortality estimates for the first eight months of 2024.
actuaries.digital/2024/12/17…
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17 Dec 2024
In the 8mths to August, rather than lower levels of mortality than in 2023, Covid-19 has led to about the same level of deaths as 2023 in aggregate, with the winter wave being significantly worse than projected, lasting longer and peaking at higher levels than predicted.
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17 Dec 2024
Total deaths from non-COVID-19 respiratory causes were significantly (8%) higher than predicted.
Deaths from all other causes were in line with the prediction, which contrasts with 2021-2023 where deaths for many of these causes were significantly higher than anticipated.
Ends/
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12 Dec 2024
Four weeks since my post saying it looked like Covid was about to take off again in NSW. Latest NSW Health report shows little action. A very benign wave compared with this time last year.
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
14 Nov 2024
Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave.
Stats from todays NSW Health report:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
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21 Nov 2024
All those indicators that looked like they were increasing last week are mostly unchanged this week.
21 Nov 2024
Whooping cough activity is still high. Pregnant women and people in close contact with babies should get vaccinated to protect babies from severe disease.
Full report:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
More info:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
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Karen Cutter retweeted
21 Nov 2024
Whooping cough activity is still high. Pregnant women and people in close contact with babies should get vaccinated to protect babies from severe disease.
Full report:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
More info:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
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15 Nov 2024
Social media at its best.
ppaonline.com.au/wp-content/…
15 Nov 2024
Philippe has some intel on JN.1 availability. Can anyone concur?
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15 Nov 2024
Philippe has some intel on JN.1 availability. Can anyone concur?
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15 Nov 2024
ATAGI minutes for Oct have been released, stating “ATAGI recommends using the latest COVID-19 vaccine formulation”. This was before the Pfizer JN.1 vax had received TGA approval, but presumably means it is “ATAGI approved” as soon as supply is available (expected “late 2024”)
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15 Nov 2024
After four week of not reporting, here is Victoria. Wasn’t such a big limb…
14 Nov 2024
Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave.
Stats from todays NSW Health report:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
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14 Nov 2024
Going out on a limb here: I think we are at the start of a new Covid wave.
Stats from todays NSW Health report:
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious…
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14 Nov 2024
The Australia-wide aged care stats are also showing an increase in recent weeks.
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