Trying to keep it simple, I think. Spending time outdoors and posting about it.
Joined March 2024
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5 Oct 2025
Going to use this thread as a running list of books I consider must reads. Adding to it whenever I feel.
First one:
Sailing Alone Around the World by Joshua Slocum
(Written by Joshua Slocum on his journey to be the first single handed circumnavigation)
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If anyone is in town for the Open and would like to connect, feel free to DM.
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Jun 11
Long $ASTH
Jun 11
Utilization across healthcare is rolling over - you want to own health insurance / value-based care stocks - particularly with high Medicare Advantage exposure.
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Jun 10
Jun 10
Yes, military flyovers look cool. But taxpayer-funded military hype for private sports events is still weird—and a little creepy.
Community note
Military flyovers at sporting events incur no additional cost to taxpayers, as they are part of routine training missions already funded and required for pilots. 159fw.ang.af.mil/About-Us/Commu… ne.ng.mil/Community-Rela…
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Jun 9
I published a piece about Titan America $TTAM.
It is free to read. I hope you enjoy it.
Feel free to reach out to me via DMs if you would like to chat further.
Jun 1
Is there anyone here that has color on the economics of the last clinker transactions? ie. Unacem, CRH, Summit Materials deals.
I am trying to back in to a few figures for comparable transactions to $TTAM acq. of Keystone Cement and would like to share my math/discuss.
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Jun 8
I understand where this is coming from and don’t get me wrong I own a lot of value/SMID and it's gone well, but…
Why do you need an advantage? If you’re right, you’re right. Tossing away large/mega caps seems short sighted, just to try and find “hidden gems”
Here are four mega cap stocks. JPM, WMT, CB, XOM.
A bank, a retailer, an insurer, and an oil company. None of these are tech firms. This is what your outperformance over the index looks like if this is all you owned over the last 5 years. 21% CAGR vs 13% for SPY.
And yes, the example isn't perfect, maybe you buy the large/mega caps that go down, maybe you spend your time in HD, DIS, etc. over the last 5 years. But the same can happen if you buy "hidden gems"
If it works, it works. Plenty of ways to win (and lose).
Jun 8
Why do individual investors or small funds buy mega cap stocks? Thousands of investors are looking at those companies, and you have no advantage there. Look for ‘hidden gems’ where your smaller size works in your favor.
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Jun 5
CME CBOE MIAX limit down Monday
Jun 5
Hyperliquid
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Jun 3
Because a comment asked:
Rate is getting destroyed. Reinsurance capital abundant. Will take a lot of loss to turn this market from soft to hard.
If we get another relatively benign windstorm season rate will come down another mid-teens or more for 1/1. Pricing since 1/1/26 to today has also come in. There is just a lot of capital out there to absorb needs and it's going to take time to work through.
Even in certain historically tight markets like FL are seeing abundant capacity on both primary and CAT.
Insurers broadly well capitalized too.
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Jun 2
Court has granted Morrow until June 12th "to answer, move to dismiss, or otherwise respond to the Complaint."
Mar 27
For those following the $SRL saga.
pacermonitor.com/public/case…
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Jun 1
Is there anyone here that has color on the economics of the last clinker transactions? ie. Unacem, CRH, Summit Materials deals.
I am trying to back in to a few figures for comparable transactions to $TTAM acq. of Keystone Cement and would like to share my math/discuss.
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Jun 1
Further to this point, the ability to procure cover for your vessel isn't the bottleneck. The pricing is higher, but they're buying.
Just because you have insurance doesn't mean you want to take the risk of major/total vessel loss.
Jun 1
Musings
Regarding Hormuz and broader (re)insurance dynamics:
Just my 2 cents. Definitely still some opacity with regard to how claims will develop for Marine War & PVT lines, but even if development is poor there's enough capacity in both Re & Retro. The markets have been really precise about what exposures they need to tighten up rather than a blanket response - which is good.
From a structural perspective since the conflict began exclusions haven't really changed much since 1/1, it's really a pricing game here. Certain lines saw 10x premium increases for cover as % of vessel value (or hull value).
It's a tricky situation frankly, capacity is there, but the Re markets need to thread the needle on creating enough buffer to prevent development issues. I'm honestly unsure on how this dynamic turns out. The only thing I believe is that to mitigate this Marine War & PVT price is going to remain elevated vs pre-conflict.
If you think about Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge marine loss it's now $2.8bn give or take. For this conflict, just PVT is already larger than that and it's been <6 months...
It's important to keep in mind that all of this comes with the backdrop of a pretty clear soft market for rates. The Marine War & PVT market is important but it is not an outsized portion of overall cover that is written.
Pockets of tightening in certain lines, but on P&C overall I see further softening in general. I think people generally don't know how much pricing softened this 1/1 and how that trended over Q1.
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Jun 1
Musings
Regarding Hormuz and broader (re)insurance dynamics:
Just my 2 cents. Definitely still some opacity with regard to how claims will develop for Marine War & PVT lines, but even if development is poor there's enough capacity in both Re & Retro. The markets have been really precise about what exposures they need to tighten up rather than a blanket response - which is good.
From a structural perspective since the conflict began exclusions haven't really changed much since 1/1, it's really a pricing game here. Certain lines saw 10x premium increases for cover as % of vessel value (or hull value).
It's a tricky situation frankly, capacity is there, but the Re markets need to thread the needle on creating enough buffer to prevent development issues. I'm honestly unsure on how this dynamic turns out. The only thing I believe is that to mitigate this Marine War & PVT price is going to remain elevated vs pre-conflict.
If you think about Baltimore's Francis Scott Key Bridge marine loss it's now $2.8bn give or take. For this conflict, just PVT is already larger than that and it's been <6 months...
It's important to keep in mind that all of this comes with the backdrop of a pretty clear soft market for rates. The Marine War & PVT market is important but it is not an outsized portion of overall cover that is written.
Pockets of tightening in certain lines, but on P&C overall I see further softening in general. I think people generally don't know how much pricing softened this 1/1 and how that trended over Q1.
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May 31
What is the point of profitability and time pre-requisites/standards if the index will just waive those for seemingly arbitrary reasons.
Total clown show
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May 29
It’s a beautiful Friday to drink a light beer. One might say the best Friday to drink a light beer.
Happy weekend.
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May 29
What’s the worst M&A deal in history in your view?
CVS for OSH gotta be up there.
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