"While I’m a strong advocate of process-based thinking and assessment, I have to admit #teamresults has a point. It’s not that their method of waiting years after the draft to have an opinion makes any sense - it doesn’t. It’s that nearly all of the draft grades you will see this week will do a poor job emphasizing the decisions that have real predictive power. "Most draft grades will focus on the individual player selections, and whether their rank ordering aligns with the pre-draft opinions of the analyst. If media draft experts build their credibility on the hammer of player evaluation, then draft assessment becomes the nail of agreeing or disagreeing with the valuation of the players selected." unexpectedpoints.com/p/insta…

"It’s difficult for most people to understand that what’s ultimately the most impactful aspect of a decision (the specific prospect chosen) isn’t the best way to judge the decision. If you’re playing the lottery, the most impactful decision will be the number you choose, but we don’t give someone credit for great number-picking if they win. "While the draft isn’t as inherently random at the lottery, the degree to which there can be relative advantage in prospect evaluation is mostly whittled away by 32 teams of experts who are all very good at their jobs." unexpectedpoints.com/p/insta…

See some commentary on the Orlovsky quote. He's right in saying the Rams likely "are" not one WR3 away from winning the Super Bowl, which is different than saying they "were" not one player away last season

Analytical AFC Draft Grade @Unexpected_Pts The most objective analysis of draft value gained/lost, looking at trades, positional value and selection (reach/steal) effects, all through the lens of surplus value ($$)

Biggest "reach" in the first round according to the consensus big board: Malachi Lawrence By consensus mock drafts: Caleb Banks Biggest "steal" by both metrics: Keldric Faulk

My full analysis of the first round, including surplus value calculations for every pick and commentary open.substack.com/pub/unexpe…

Big update to the @Unexpected_Pts Offseason Improvement Index with the Dexter Lawrence trade. Bengals now in the top-10, Giants fall into the bottom-4. 160 player transactions built into the index, with individual player valuations for every transaction

The big question for the Bengals on the Dexter Lawrence trade is how many prime years do you think he'll produce *going forward* If you assume (perhaps generously) a prime through his age-31 season, Lawrence would have three more prime years. Post-trade prime years by the same assumption: Quinnen Williams: 3.5 years Micah Parsons: 6 years DeForest Buckner: 6 years Khalil Mack: 5 years