Merry Christmas ⛷️

I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close. If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that. REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it. This is not offset by the ability to drain the Reverse Repo (it is drained). And QT drains it further. This is hitting markets and in particular crypto which is the most liquidity driven. TradiFi asset managers have had one of their worst years of performance vs benchmark and are now having to chase markets and that is allowing tech to be more stable than crypto. 401K flows help too. If this liquidity drain keeps going longer, stocks will get hit hard too. However... As soon as the gov shutdown ends, the Treasury begins spending $250bn to $350bn in a couple of months. QT ends and the balance sheet technically expands. The Dollar will likely begin to weaken again as liquidity begins to flow. Tariff negiotiations will have largely been completed, removing uncertainty Ongoing bill issuance increases, adding more liquidity via bank balance sheets and money market funds (and stable coins). Ongoing rate cuts (we will have economic weakness from the shutdown that will add to the evidence that rates need to come lower but no, there is no recession).. SLR changes free up more of the banks balance sheets allowing for credit expansion. The CLARITY ACT will get passed, giving the crypto regs so deserately needed for large scale adoption by banks, asset managers and businesses overall. The Big Beautiful Bill then kicks in to goose the economy into the midterms. The entire system is now being geared toward a strong economy and strong market in 2026 for these elections. China will continue to expand its balance sheet. Japan will work to strenghten the Yen, and also fiscally stimulate. The ISM will rise as rates fall and tarrif uncertainty drops away. You just need to get through the Window of Pain and The Liquidity Flood lies ahead. Always remember the Dont Fuck This Up rules...and wait out the volatility. Drawdowns like this are common place in bull markets and their job is to test your faith. BTFD if you can. td:dr - When this number goes up, all number go up.

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Healing the genetically coded trauma of your ancestral bloodline is no easy feat, but those who do the work are masters of their own fate.

Thinking Out Loud: Well, thats going to solve the issue of the global central banks having to Refi their debts at high rates! My guess is that rates over-time come down to 2.5%. Next up however, they will need large amounts of liquidity to monetize the previous cycle interest payments to roll it over. That will come in due course (MOAR COWBELL). The bigger game is playing out and markets are caught in the middle for now. We might even have war to add to the list of reasons to inject liquidity but that comes with yet more uncertainly, FUD and volatility. These "macro spasms" tend to be rather nasty but realtively short-lived, much like the "taper tantrum" in 2018 or the China/EU slowdown fear and sharp dollar reversal of 2016 (similar to now). But they can last a few weeks. Both of these prior episodes saw mass liquidiations of assets (as everything goes to a correlation of 1), which soon reversed as the liquidity cycle kicked-in. Bears love them, long-term bulls love them but those on a shorter time horizon, or with less conviction, get really sideswiped/shaken up by them. Mass anxiety over X doesnt help as FUD grips the main narrative. Macro set ups like this come from time to time. The question you need to ask yourselves is whether anything has changed in the business cycle. IF we were at the point where the ISM was turning down after a cycle peak, then this could usher in something more protracted. But we are at the bottom of the business cycle with a massive easing of financial conditions in place, accelerated by the dollar decline that is just starting and by the rate decline, and forward looking indicators are showing signs of a good recovery ahead. Thus the probabilistic outcome is that this is just a nasty flush out. Therefore using my Everything Code framework (which is all about the cycle and not about the wiggles) I'd be strongly biased towards using this reset as a very good opportunity to add to trades ahead of the liquidty spigots opening (whenever that is...but likely within 4 weeks). That is the macro set up I am personally focussed on. I don't trade the wiggles anymore but instead the secular cycle and the longer business cycle, but I am annoyed I missed the bond trade. That was a gift...and I stopped myself pulling the trigger because of being scarred from the last 2 times! The issue here is figuring out if this is a nearly-done event, or we have a short bounce and then a final leg lower, or re-test of those lows. The situation in the Middle East might well dictate that. It is too early to know but I for one am looking to add to my crypto and tech over the next week or so. Not looking to get the exact bottom...but just to get great prices for the Macro Summer/Fall period that we have started (but got sideswiped by Japan). I personally think of this as a violent shakeout and a reset of risk-taking leverage and that strong upside will be the feature of 2024/2025 overall. Thus to me, this is the last time to get in or fully positioned. I luckily have income so that allows me to add, eventhough I am max long...i.e I just get max'er long! The banana zone slipped on a banana skin, but its far from fatal, just some nasty bruising! I do think that this has all happened so fast that it will take time for a liquidity/policy response and we also know that every government and central bank wants a weaker dollar and lower rates, so they probably have a bias to let this stick for a bit before halting it. Eventual Fed cuts will usher in a weaker dollar period too, which helps build Macro Summer/Fall. Right now we are in the max fear zone. Hold on tight and have a plan that suits your risk tolerance and time horizon. Stay safe out there. Good things come to those who wait. Markets are never easy and a bull markets job is to try to throw you off. Zoom out. Relax. This too shall pass. This exact kind of mess is why the Dont Fuck This Up thesis is SO important. Remember: No leverage No FOMO Top 3 to 5 assets as main bag Self-custody (or multi-sig) with good wallet hygiene Only trade a small Degen bag <10% HODL over a longer time horizon Zoom out and remove the noise Expect 35% pullbacks frequently BTFD if you can #DFTU Those of you mainly in alts outside the top 3 are learning how risky they are. Ive tried hard to explain this. Crypto is risky enough as it is without your bags going down 80% in an early bull market correction! Yes, they can do well in a exponential rise but only if you own the right tokens, which isnt easy. Not selling anything. Looking for time and price to add and watching the spectacle. Getting this right can help you unfuck your future. If you dont think this is a 6 month event, then use it as a gift. Try to filter out the noise from those with shorter-term trading time horizons as they are playing a different game. I'll do a video later today or tomorrow.

Munch's The Scream is an icon of modern art, the Mona Lisa for our time. As Leonardo da Vinci evoked a Renaissance ideal of serenity and self-control, Munch defined how we see our own age - wracked with anxiety and uncertainty. 😱 As part of Asprey Studio's Scream project, we are currently aligning with our talented artists and inscribing the unique artworks. Coming to @MEonBTC 📷: Original painting (1893) by Edvard Munch