You love to see it
This is actually insane.
SPCX just hit $3 trillion market cap. Bigger than Amazon and Microsoft. Less than a week after IPOing at $1.75T
Here’s why this is happening:
Only about 4% of total shares were released in the IPO. The other 96% is locked up. Insiders, employees, early investors, big institutional holders. All on a staggered release schedule.
So when buyers come in, they are hitting a tiny pool of actual tradable shares. The order book has almost nothing on the ask side. Price has to gap higher to bring out marginal sellers, which is why you are seeing these violent moves on what looks like normal volume.
And here is the kicker. Market cap is calculated on every share that exists. Even the locked-up 96%. So the headline number is exploding past $3T while the real float is tiny.
This is low-float mechanics at a scale nobody has EVER seen before.
Now the important part.
The insiders cannot sell yet. The lockup releases happen in phases. First big chunks come in August after the first earnings report. Then more through the fall with performance-based gates. Then scheduled tranches into December. Elon is locked up for 366 days on top of all that.
Right now, supply is frozen.
That changes soon.
Once those unlock dates hit, the float starts expanding in waves. And if most of this buying has been speculative momentum (which I suspect it has), the balance is going to shift fast when sellers can finally hit the market.
This is a supply-constrained squeeze.
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