'Biggest defeat since Vietnam': why David Woo says the AI bubble, not Iran, is the real threat to the dollar (Kitco News) - As Wall Street cheered an interim deal between Washington and Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil to a two-month low and lifting stocks, one of the most respected voices in global macro used his appearance on Kitco News to argue that investors are celebrating the wrong story, and missing the one that actually threatens the dollar. David Woo, who spent two decades running global rates and currency research at Bank of America before leaving to write fiction, did not soften the message. He called the agreement a strategic loss of historic proportions and warned that the foundation under the rallying market, the artificial intelligence boom, is far more fragile than the price action suggests.

Gold rallies above $4,350 as oil prices tumble, but analysts say recovery is not complete (Kitco News) - The gold market is seeing some solid follow-through buying at the start of the week, as prices have rallied more than 3% early in the North American trading session. The precious metal is seeing its best percentage gains since early February. Spot gold last traded at $4,351 an ounce, up more than 3% on the day. Analysts note that #gold is reacting to news that the U.S. and Iran will sign a peace deal on Friday, ending the latest months-long conflict in the Middle East. The news has pushed #oil prices below $80 a barrel, which in turn is easing inflation pressures...

Gold bulls mounting a monster comeback (Kitco Commentary) - On Monday last week, I wrote that if the daily momentum indicator trend line broke, price would fall to the bottom of the parallel channel. That happened. I also wrote that this event would likely be a great buying opportunity. A few trading days and a Sunday evening gap-up later, and price is just about where we were on Monday, June 8 — approximately a $600 round trip. ...

Gold prices holding near session highs as Empire State Survey falls to 5.7 in June (Kitco News) - After a solid gap higher at the start of the new trading week, #gold is holding near its session highs as the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported slowing activity in its manufacturing region, along with rising input prices. The regional central bank reported Monday that its Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose less than expected, posting a reading of 5.7 in June, down sharply from May’s four-year high of 19.6. ...

Gold, silver rally as Hormuz risk shifts from oil shock to rate relief - Kitco AM Report (Kitco NewsWire) - Spot #gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as the U.S.-Iran framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz cut crude prices, eased inflation-risk pricing and softened the U.S. dollar. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,336.20 an ounce, up 2.79%, while spot silver was trading near $70.670, up 4.07% on the session. The New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index fell 14 points to 5.7 in June, leaving activity positive but slower after May’s stronger reading. New orders printed at 3.5, shipments at 8.6, prices paid held elevated at 61.0 and prices received held at 31.4. The supply availability index slipped to -13.9, its weakest level since June 2022, keeping a visible supply-chain inflation channel in the macro mix. ...

Precious metals firm as crude slides, stocks rise on U.S.-Iran talks - Kitco PM Report (Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are also higher after the close Friday, as oil prices fell on U.S.-Iran deal hopes, Treasury yields ended the week lower and U.S. equities rose into the weekend. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,217.00 an ounce, up 0.13%, while spot silver was trading at $67.985, up 0.94% on the session. This week’s inflation data remains the main macro anchor for precious metals. May consumer prices rose 4.2% from a year earlier, while producer prices rose 6.5%, keeping the Fed-rate channel restrictive even as Friday’s oil selloff eased part of the energy-inflation pressure that dominated the midweek trade. Gold stabilized into the close, but the metal remains below the moving-average resistance zone that has capped rebounds since the post-payrolls breakdown. ...