Bitcoin barely moved on Friday, closing down just 0.07%, but the level still matters: BTC wicked up to 64,394 and needs to keep closing above the TBO support area around 63,913 to make this move look bullish. The bearish pennant is probably finished after two closes above it, but volume is still weak, the candle was tiny, and TBO/on-balance volume remain strongly bearish, so I would not be shocked to see a weekend trickle lower or a Sunday pump-or-dump.
Ethereum is still sitting below overhead resistance and opened below support, even with bullish RSI resets showing up. My shorts remain open, and if BTC or ETH spike into their baselines/fast lines, that is where I would be looking to add, not here. Total crypto is still below the 1.9T TBO support/resistance area, stablecoin dominance is only hinting at a bearish divergence until the candle confirms, Bitcoin dominance is doing what I am waiting for BTC to do, and OTHERS market cap remains very strong bearish despite tagging the fast line.
In TradFi, DXY is pushing into historical TBO resistance around 103.28, USDJPY still is not enough to go Home Alone style, S&P/SPX/NASDAQ have closed recent TBO close longs, and the VIX reaction is still weird. Oil keeps dropping toward the 81 area, gold and silver are technically strong bearish, and today’s picks are full of examples of why entries and profit-taking matter: BEAT pulled back after a massive run, XMR and TRUMP show why I do not trust pumps, COAI gave a clean fast-line entry, VELVET showed an 80% wipeout, and viewer picks included HOOD, CRCL, ALAB, AMAT, NKE, and SOL.
CHAPTER MARKERS
00:00 BTC Flat Close, 64k TBO Support, and Fast Line Target
02:29 Ethereum Resistance, Open Shorts, and Weekend Risk
03:37 TOTALES, Stablecoin Dominance, BTC Dominance, and OTHERS
05:07 TradFi Watch: DXY, EURUSD, USDJPY, S&P Futures, and VIX
07:15 Oil, Gold, Silver, and Better Traders Resources
10:05 My Picks: BEAT, XMR, TRUMP, and COAI
12:43 DEXE Bearish Divergence and HYPE Setup
14:20 NEAR, ONDO, VVV, INJ, H, FF, and VELVET
16:40 Viewer Picks: HOOD, CRCL, ALAB, and AMAT
19:07 NKE Gap Fill Risk and SOL Outlook
21:47 SUI Preview, HYPE Deep Dive, and Club Early Access