Helping you win your Fantasy Football Leagues through data driven analytics, insight, and guidance. Content Creator at @FantasyPts. I like making Excel Charts
Joined February 2025
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I don't think these two situations are comparable at all; fading Christian McCaffrey after a 400 touch season because Saquon Barkley fell off after his 450 touch season doesn't make sense
Barkley fell off in 2025 because Kevin Patullo was an incompetent OC, the OL struggled, and Barkley saw far less room to run as a result
- Barkley saw a league-high 3.55 YBCO/Att in 2024, and as a result 36.9% of his total fantasy points came on explosive runs (15 yards)
In 2025, 56.7% of McCaffrey's total fantasy points came from his receiving production
- The 49ers offense will still be elite in 2026 and McCaffrey will continue to be used as a dual-threat back
McCaffrey wasn't even efficient on the ground at all either, but still finished as the RB1
- 3.86 YPC (RB39)
- 3.5% Explosive Run Rate (RB35)
- 1.95 YACO/Att (RB40)
Until there is another player that can do what CMC does in the passing game, he will continue to be an RB1 overall candidate
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
The time to draft Christian McCaffrey is the year after he misses significant time, like last season.
Not the year after he gets 400 touches.
CMC is this year's Saquon Barkley.
Fading him is an uncontested breakaway layup.
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I remember that one of the biggest reasons that people were worried about CJ Stroud when he was drafted was his possible lack of higher level game IQ
- He Scored in the 18th percentile of the Wonderlic Test (albeit a potentially "unreliable" test for QBs)
Then we see him have this incredible rookie season, putting every hater to bed
Until we see him completely regress in Years 2 & 3, falling apart in dramatically impressive fashion in the playoffs
- Defenses likely figured out Stroud, and he has failed to adapt accordingly
I am 100% out on Stroud ever returning to his rookie season form, I just don't think he has what it takes anymore
This is who y'all are getting in Year 4
Despite strong coachspeak, CJ Stroud didn’t show much improvement in practices open to the media
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Here are my "Flag Plant" players in each round of Best Ball contests right now
1. Ashton Jeanty - 11.0 ADP (RB5)
2. Omarion Hampton - 15.7 ADP (RB10)
3. Breece Hall - 27.0 ADP (RB14)
4. Ladd McConkey - 36.7 ADP (WR17)
5. Christian Watson - 57.2 ADP (WR28)
6. Parker Washington - 69.6 ADP (WR34)
7. Tucker Kraft - 82.0 ADP (TE5)
8. Trevor Lawrence - 85.8 ADP (QB10)
9. Ricky Pearsall - 102.0 ADP (WR47)
10. Romeo Doubs - 115.7 ADP (WR50)
11. Dalton Kincaid - 129.3 ADP (TE13)
12. Jalen Coker - 133.0 ADP (WR56)
13. Jalen McMillan - 146.3 ADP (WR60)
14. Antonio Williams - 161.0 ADP (WR65)
15. Tank Bigsby - 173.8 ADP (RB54)
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Let's play a game of "Who's That Rookie!" based on the offseason quotes about them
I will refer to him as "rookie player" in these quotes
- "He can hit home runs; there's a lot to like about him."
- "Rookie player ignites the crowd the way he breaks tackles. He runs with joy."
- "Rookie player has the ability to go through you or run away from you."
- "Player 1 and Player 2 had some good runs during practice, but Rookie Player really flashed in this practice."
- "Rookie player caught the attention of Head Coach to open the week, flashing his play-making ability and running style... Rookie player showed really well today."
If you guessed Jarquez Hunter in the 2025 offseason, you probably deserve financial compensation for being bamboozled so thoroughly last year
This is another reminder that the majority of the rookies from this god-awful class will be praised for every little thing they do in camp, but will most likely be cleaning jock straps this season
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Kyle retweeted
Philadelphia Eagles Leaders in YPRR [Last 2 Years]
1. Dallas Goedert w/out AJ Brown (2.92)
2. DeVonta Smith w/out AJ Brown (2.71)
3. A.J. Brown (2.65)
4. DeVonta Smith w/ AJ Brown (1.63)
5. Dallas Goedert w/ AJ Brown (1.45)
DeVonta ADP = Round 3
Goedert ADP = Round 12
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I feel like this contest is the perfect opportunity to post my Best Ball playoff cheat sheet one more time lol
Green = Great Matchups
Yellow = Solid Matchups
Red = Bad Matchups
No fill = Meh
Jun 12
The Frenchie 6 is LIVE🏈
$8 to Enter (3-max)
$50k in Prizes
$10k to 1st Place
Round Advancement: 11/12 - 1/5 - 1/3 - 429 Final
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Hmm, I have mixed feelings about KC Concepcion being used as a return specialist or as the "deep-threat" WR on the team
Surprisingly enough, Shedeur Sanders had some encouraging metrics on pass attempts 20 yards downfield last season
- 48.0% Highly Accurate Throw Rate (QB5)
- 56.0% Catchable Throw Rate (QB13)
Deshaun Watson was absolutely horrible on these deep pass attempts in 2024
- 19.0% Highly Accurate Throw Rate (QB38)
- 33.0% Catchable Throw Rate (QB40)
Reports seem to indicate Watson looks better than his past few injury-riddle seasons, but definitely some worrying metrics above
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
Jun 12
KC Concepcion's potential role for the Browns:
"First-round wide receiver KC Concepcion looked the part as well, and the Browns will likely use his speed as a return specialist, in motion on offense and as a deep threat."
si.com/nfl/browns/onsi/3-mai…
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Day 3 of my 2026 OL Evaluation Series! We are onto the Las Vegas Raiders!
The 2025 Raiders deployed one of the worst offenses we’ve seen in the modern era, behind a completely inept and borderline useless OL
- TLDR Graphic in thread below
[2025 Metrics]
Offense PPG: 14.2 (32nd)
Overall OL Ranking: 30th
Run-Block Ranking: 32nd
Pass-Block Ranking: 23rd
- Percentage of rush attempts with > 3.0 YBCO/Att: 20.9% (31st)
- Most used OL group combined for the 6th-lowest snap share in the league at 23.5%
[2025 Offensive Linemen injuries]
LT Kolton Miller (missed Week 5 onward)
- The Raiders RB room saw 1.55 YBCO/Att with Miller on the field vs. 0.77 YBCO/Att with him off the field
- Most of Jeanty’s explosive runs occurred behind the blocking of Miller in Weeks 1-4
[Coaching Changes]
Klint Kubiak at HC
Andrew Janocko at OC
Omar Young as RB Coach
Rick Dennison as OL Coach
- 2025 2TE Set Rate: 31.1%
- 2025 3TE Set Rate: 5.7%
- 2025 PROE: 0.5% (14th)
The important of these coaching improvements cannot be overstated, and Kubiak was quite possibly the best offensive mind in the league in 2025
[Free Agency Additions]
Tyler Linderbaum: 79.8 Overall PFF Grade (4th/37)
Spencer Burford: 58.9 Overall PFF Grade (49th/81)
[Draft Picks]
Trey Zuhn (91st overall pick): 71.8 Overall PFF grade
[Projected Starting Lineup]
LT Kolton Miller: 86.5 Overall PFF Grade
LG Spencer Burford: 56.7 Overall PFF Grade (52nd/79)
C Tyler Linderbaum: 79.8 Overall PFF Grade (4th/37)
RG Jackson Powers-Johnson: 63.8 Overall PFF Grade (39th/79)
RT DJ Glaze: 60.6 Overall PFF Grade (60th/84)
[2026 Offseason Linemen changes]
Burford replaces Dylan Parham (63.6 Overall PFF Grade)
Linderbaum replaces Jordan Meredith (57.7 Overall PFF Grade)
[Fantasy Impact]
Ashton Jeanty is the clear and obvious winner here. He should benefit from an improved OL, and massive coaching/scheme upgrade
- Jeanty in a bell cow role, seeing the majority of goal-line touches and 4 targets a game may have RB1 overall upside (depending on how much this offense improves scoring-wise)
Brock Bowers is the other big winner here this offseason. Not only will this team run heavier personnel, they’ll do so with Bowers as the clear #1 target
- Bower is only competing for looks with Tre Tucker and Jalen Nailor
Day 2 of my OL Evaluation Series! Today we will be covering the Cleveland Browns
- This was one of the worst offenses in the league last season, with a bottom-tier OL, horrible QB play, and no explosive play ability
TLDR graphic in the thread below!
[2025 Metrics]
Offense PPG: 16.4 (31st)
Overall OL Ranking: 31st
Run-Block Ranking: 31st
Pass-Block Ranking: 31st
- Percentage of rush attempts with > 3.0 YBCO/Att: 18.3% (32nd)
- Most used OL group combined for the 5th-lowest snap share together (22.0%)
There was absolutely no room for Quinshon Judkins or any other RB on the team to run
[2025 Offensive Linemen injuries]
[Coaching Changes]
Todd Monken as HC
Travis Switzer as OC
George Warhop as OL Coach
- PROE: -1.3% (22nd)
- 2 TE sets: 42.3%
- 3 TE sets: 4.5%
Arguably. just as, if not more, impactful on the OL are the above coaching changes
[Free Agency Additions]
Tytus Howard: 62.3 Overall PFF Grade (56th/84)
Zion Johnson: 56.7 Overall PFF Grade (52nd/79)
Elgton Jenkins: 62.0 Overall PFF Grade (22nd/37)
[Draft Picks]
Spencer Fano (9th overall pick): 83.9 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Austin Barber (86th overall pick): 83.5 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Parker Brailsford (146th overall pick): 65.6 2025 Overall PFF Grade
[Projected Starting Lineup]
LT Spencer Fano*
LG Zion Johnson: 56.7 Overall PFF Grade (52nd/79)
C Elgton Jenkins: 62.0 Overall PFF Grade (22nd/37)
RG Teven Jenkins: 77.7 Overall PFF Grade
RT Tytus Howard: 62.3 Overall PFF Grade (56th/84)
Rookie*
[2026 Offseason Linemen changes]
Fano replaces Dawand Jones (32.8 Overall PFF Grade)
Johnson replaces Joel Bitonio (70.7 Overall PFF Grade)
Jenkins replaces Ethan Pocic (63.8 Overall PFF Grade)
Jenkins takes over for Wyatt Teller (62.2 Overall PFF Grade)
Howard replaces Jack Conklin (57.4 Overall PFF Grade)
This is a complete rehaul of the offensive line from top to bottom
[Fantasy Impact]
Quinshon Judkins will see an improved (new) OL and run scheme and is actively participating in training camp at a high level
- I love him at his current ADP in Best Ball: 55.4 (RB34)
Harold Fannin was wildly impressive as a rookie and I think he has a good chance to lead this team in targets in 2026
- Another solid selection at his current ADP: 97.1 (TE6)
This WR room is led by Jerry Jeudy (for now), with rookie additions KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston
- All of these WRs are decent selections at their later round ADPs
I expect Deshaun Watson to win the starting QB job and see some success in an offense led by Todd Monken
- Great last pick in Best ball right now: 212.8 (QB32)
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One of my biggest weaknesses in fantasy football is understanding how draft prospects compare to one another across different classes
Is Carnell Tate really a better draft prospect than Tetairoa McMillan? (genuine question here)
I worry that all this OTA Carnell Tate hype is going to look sad when he's the poor man's Tetairoa McMillan in 2026 (when I say poor, think homeless)
Elite talent draft capital walking highlight reel
Completely negated by awful QB play high rate of 3WR sets low scoring offense more target competition (at least compared to what McMillan faced)
Then we add in the possibility that this is a low-passing-volume offense, and the outlook gets murkier
- The Giants didn't have a single season with a positive PROE under Brian Daboll (2022-2025)
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Quinshon Judkins should have an easier time finding opportunities to succeed in Year 2
Hearing that he won't be negatively impacted by his 2025 injury only makes me like his value in Best Ball contests even more
- 55.1 ADP (RB24) on Underdog
The Browns hired a new HC (Todd Monken), OC (Travis Switzer), and OL coach (George Warhop) this offseason
- They also completely re-hauled their OL (5 new starters)
These improvements, alongside the addition of more receiving talent, should create more room for Judkins to run (compared to 2025)
- He saw the 4th-fewest YBCO/Att (1.36 yards)
- He saw the 3rd-highest percentage of stacked boxes (53.9%)
- He had the 5th-highest percentage of yards after contact (62.2%)
When Judkins saw at least 3.0 YBCO/Att last season, here is how he ranked on those attempts:
- 9.86 YPC (RB14)
- 0.29 MTF/Att (RB6)
- 3.51 YACO/Att (RB5)
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
Jun 12
🤕🔔 The research paints a telling picture for Quinshon Judkins this season…
🧵👇
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Rashee Rice is going to get knee surgery, go to jail, rehab that knee in jail, and come back in pads before Worthy does
I want Worthy to be a thing in Year 3, but he really gives me such bum energy
#Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy says that he's still building up to 100%.
He adds that the yellow jersey (no contact) at mandatory minicamp was "a precautionary thing."
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Kyle retweeted
Jun 12
Ladd McConkey is Ryan Heath's favorite bet to follow Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Year 3 breakout 🥇
Here's how their Year 1 and Year 2 metrics stack up, and what conditions are setting McConkey up for the leap!
And if you haven't read this groundbreaking article yet, what are you doing?! (Psst, it's free)
x.com/RyanJ_Heath/status/205…
May 14
I don't want to miss the next Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
So I wrote about the personnel tendencies we see around the NFL, with direct predictions of which players will benefit from them.
Everything from 2-WR sets to fullbacks to 3 TEs covered inside! Free read!
fantasypoints.com/nfl/articl…
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Do we really think that Emmett Johnson is going to steal significant receiving work from Kenneth Walker?
- The Chiefs haven't had an elite dual-threat back of this level since prime Kareem Hunt
Sure, Johnson had great receiving production in his final college season, but he's a 5th-round pick, and his 1.27 YPRR ranked 49th
- Sounds like Emari Demercado is the one in line for the RB2 role anyway
Walker was criminally underutilized as a receiver out of the backfield by the Seahawks for three straight seasons
[2025]
- 1.68 YPRR (RB6)
- 10.77 YAC/Rec (RB6)
- 3.13 YACO/Rec (RB5)
-0.26 MTF/Rec (RB18)
[2024]*Injury-riddled season
- 1.43 YPRR (RB17)
- 8.09 YAC/Rec (RB24)
- 2.48 YACO/Rec (RB19)
- 0.15 MTF/Rec (RB31)
[2023]
- 1.52 YPRR (RB8)
- 11.03 YAC/Rec (RB2)
- 6.17 YACO/Rec (RB2)
- 0.52 MTF/Rec (RB1)
Pretty much everything we've heard from the Chiefs so far is that Walker is expected to be a bell cow, and true dual-threat back
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
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I worry that all this OTA Carnell Tate hype is going to look sad when he's the poor man's Tetairoa McMillan in 2026 (when I say poor, think homeless)
Elite talent draft capital walking highlight reel
Completely negated by awful QB play high rate of 3WR sets low scoring offense more target competition (at least compared to what McMillan faced)
Then we add in the possibility that this is a low-passing-volume offense, and the outlook gets murkier
- The Giants didn't have a single season with a positive PROE under Brian Daboll (2022-2025)
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Long ago, the Jaguars were at peace. Then, everything changed when Brian Thomas Jr. got the YIPs
Here is how BTJ ranked on vertical routes with Trevor Lawrence at QB in 2024 (Weeks 1-9)
- 3.62 YPRR (WR4)
- 0.15 TPRR (WR37)
- 0.268 ASS (WR1)
- 23.2% Route Win Rate (WR2)
The same kid who wrote a PHD thesis on why Brian Thomas Jr. could finish as the overall WR1 last season (my dumbass), is starting to feel hope again (uh-oh)
All of the recent training camp reports that Liam Coen is concertedly focusing on re-establishing Lawrence's deep ball connection with Thomas makes me more optimistic about Thomas at his current ADP
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
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Admittedly, I’ve really only drafted Sam Darnold to stack with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but he still feels undervalued in Best Ball contests right now
- 141.0 ADP (QB23)
Darnold ranks 5th-best in highly accurate throw rate on balls thrown 10 air yards over the last three seasons (44.4%)
On pass attempts 20 yards downfield, he ranked as follows in 2025:
- 21.44 ANY/A (QB1)
- 20.6% CPOE (QB1)
- 52.1% Highly Accurate Throw Rate (QB1)
Thanks largely to JSN, Darnold was also a decent spike producer in 2025
- 5 performances over 18.0 fantasy points
- 2 performances over 24.0 fantasy points
Under Klint Kubiak, the Seahawks ranked 27th in pass rate over expectation (-2.8%) and averaged the 4th-fewest pass attempts per game (28.3)
- They are expected to run the offense similarly under the new OC, Brian Fleury, but with a weakened run game, I expect them to lean more on the pass in 2026
We’ve also heard vocalization that Rashid Shaheed will be utilized more to his offensive strengths in 2026, and Tory Horton is expected to be back on the field at the start of training camp
- Darnold’s highest-scoring stretch of play (Weeks 2-6) was coincidentally when Tory Horton was healthy
Metrics per @FantasyPtsData
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Day 2 of my OL Evaluation Series! Today we will be covering the Cleveland Browns
- This was one of the worst offenses in the league last season, with a bottom-tier OL, horrible QB play, and no explosive play ability
TLDR graphic in the thread below!
[2025 Metrics]
Offense PPG: 16.4 (31st)
Overall OL Ranking: 31st
Run-Block Ranking: 31st
Pass-Block Ranking: 31st
- Percentage of rush attempts with > 3.0 YBCO/Att: 18.3% (32nd)
- Most used OL group combined for the 5th-lowest snap share together (22.0%)
There was absolutely no room for Quinshon Judkins or any other RB on the team to run
[2025 Offensive Linemen injuries]
[Coaching Changes]
Todd Monken as HC
Travis Switzer as OC
George Warhop as OL Coach
- PROE: -1.3% (22nd)
- 2 TE sets: 42.3%
- 3 TE sets: 4.5%
Arguably. just as, if not more, impactful on the OL are the above coaching changes
[Free Agency Additions]
Tytus Howard: 62.3 Overall PFF Grade (56th/84)
Zion Johnson: 56.7 Overall PFF Grade (52nd/79)
Elgton Jenkins: 62.0 Overall PFF Grade (22nd/37)
[Draft Picks]
Spencer Fano (9th overall pick): 83.9 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Austin Barber (86th overall pick): 83.5 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Parker Brailsford (146th overall pick): 65.6 2025 Overall PFF Grade
[Projected Starting Lineup]
LT Spencer Fano*
LG Zion Johnson: 56.7 Overall PFF Grade (52nd/79)
C Elgton Jenkins: 62.0 Overall PFF Grade (22nd/37)
RG Teven Jenkins: 77.7 Overall PFF Grade
RT Tytus Howard: 62.3 Overall PFF Grade (56th/84)
Rookie*
[2026 Offseason Linemen changes]
Fano replaces Dawand Jones (32.8 Overall PFF Grade)
Johnson replaces Joel Bitonio (70.7 Overall PFF Grade)
Jenkins replaces Ethan Pocic (63.8 Overall PFF Grade)
Jenkins takes over for Wyatt Teller (62.2 Overall PFF Grade)
Howard replaces Jack Conklin (57.4 Overall PFF Grade)
This is a complete rehaul of the offensive line from top to bottom
[Fantasy Impact]
Quinshon Judkins will see an improved (new) OL and run scheme and is actively participating in training camp at a high level
- I love him at his current ADP in Best Ball: 55.4 (RB34)
Harold Fannin was wildly impressive as a rookie and I think he has a good chance to lead this team in targets in 2026
- Another solid selection at his current ADP: 97.1 (TE6)
This WR room is led by Jerry Jeudy (for now), with rookie additions KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston
- All of these WRs are decent selections at their later round ADPs
I expect Deshaun Watson to win the starting QB job and see some success in an offense led by Todd Monken
- Great last pick in Best ball right now: 212.8 (QB32)
The first edition of my Offensive Line Evaluation Series is here! (TLDR graphic attached in thread below)
- I will analyze every pertinent change each team has made to their OL this offseason and how it impacts their skill position players for fantasy football
We are going to start from the bottom, with my 32nd-ranked OL in 2025: The Los Angeles Chargers ⚡️
The Chargers faced a war of attrition in 2025, led by Justin Herbert, who recorded the most scramble YPG in the league last season and finished as an MVP candidate
- Herbert played at the mercy of the worst OL in the league, but things are looking up in a big way for the Chargers heading into 2026
[2025 Metrics]
- Offense PPG: 20.6 (24th)
- Overall OL Ranking: 32nd
- Run-Block Ranking: 30th
- Pass-Block Ranking: 32nd
- PROE: 3.4% (8th)
- Percentage of rush attempts with > 3.0 YBCO/Att: 24.0% (28th)
- Their most used OL group combined for the lowest snap share together in the league (16.5%)
[Key 2025 Offensive Linemen injuries]
Rashawn Slater (missed the entire season)
Joe Alt (played only 4 full games)
[Coaching Changes]
Mike McDaniel at OC
Butch Berry as OL coach
Max McCaffrey as RB coach
- 2025 2 TE Set Rate: 14.3%
- 2025 3 TE Set Rate: 1.2%
The addition of Mike McDaniel should lead to a massive improvement in the run game, a boost in efficiency in the passing game, and an increase in fantasy upside for everyone in this offense
- We should also see a lot more heavy personnel, which will lead to a boost in efficiency for Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston (possibly Tre' Harris too)
[Free Agency Additions]
Tyler Biadasz: 70.7 Overall PFF Grade
Cole Strange: 54.9 Overall PFF Grade
Kayode Awosika: 57.0 Overall PFF Grade
[Draft Picks]
Jake Slaughter (63rd overall pick): 79.3 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Travis Burker (117th overall pick): 84.5 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Logan Taylor (202nd overall pick): 70.8 2025 Overall PFF Grade
Alex Harkey (206th overall pick): 65.0 2025 Overall PFF Grade
[Projected Starting Lineup]
LT Rashawn Slater: 90.9 2024 Overall PFF Grade (2nd/81)
LG Jake Slaughter*: 79.3 2025 Overall PFF Grade
C Tyler Biadasz: 70.7 Overall PFF Grade (12th/37)
RG Cole Strange: 54.9 Overall PFF Grade (57th/79)
RT Joe Alt: 70.9 Overall PFF Grade
*Rookie
[2026 Offseason Linemen changes italicized]
- Slater replaces Trey Pipkins (47.2 Overall PFF Grade)
- Slaughter replaces Zion Johnson (57.2 Overall PFF Grade)
- Biadasz replaces Bradley Bozeman (51.5 Overall PFF Grade)
- Strange Replaces Mekhi Becton (35.7 Overall PFF Grade)
This unit should be the most improved unit in the league, just based on the return of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt alone (Tyler Biadasz is a sizable upgrade as well)
[Fantasy Impact]
This is now everyone's favorite team to see the biggest offensive improvement and ascendence in 2026
- Justin Herbert has become an early candidate for MVP (rightfully so)
- Ladd McConkey has become an enticing high upside pick with Keenan Allen gone
- Omarion Hampton is an overall RB1 candidate if he sees a bell cow role
- Quentin Johnston and Oronde Gadsden are undervalued picks you can lock in the later rounds
I like every player in the chargers offense, regardless of the format (Redraft, Dynasty, or Best Ball)
- At cost, this is probably the single best team to invest in right now
Metrics courtesy of @FantasyPtsData and PFF
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