I did a deep dive into our 290 LTO deals at @afternic and discovered some valuable insights concerning cancellations, early payoffs, and trends. 📉 Cancellation Rates Our raw cancellation rate was 26.9%, but that understates risk because it counts active deals as non-cancellations. A better number is the resolved cancellation rate: cancellations divided by completed LTOs. Historically, among our LTOs that have reached an outcome, about 59% completed successfully and 41% were cancelled. ⏱️ Cancellation Timing Cancellations are heavily front-loaded. Obviously the more payments they make the less likely they are to walk away at the next payment. But at what point are they really committed? Of our 78 cancellations, 28 (36%) made only one payment, 40 out of 78 (51%) made at most two payments, and 63 out of 78 (81%) made at most six payments. Once a deal avoids cancelling after only one payment, its resolved success rate rises to about 70%. Once a deal avoids the early churn window and gets to around six payments, the resolved success rate rises to around 86-88%. 📆 Cancellation and Term Length Most of our LTOs (87%) were in the 12-23 month range, so I'm not sure how statistically significant this data is. But there was a pretty clear pattern that the longer the length of the LTO, the higher the raw cancellation rate was. The raw cancellation for LTOs less than one year was 25%, for 12-23 months it was 25.3%, for 24-35 months it was 31.2%, and for 36 months it was 53.8%. You might think the longer the term, the more manageable the monthly payments are, and the more likely they'll be to stick around. But in this dataset, longer terms were clearly riskier. Personally, I’d be cautious offering terms longer than 24 months. 💳 Cancellation and Monthly Payment Looking only at 12-month LTOs, the raw cancellation rate was essentially the same for sub-$200 monthly payments vs $200-299 payments vs $300-499 payments. But interestingly, once the monthly payments reached $500 the raw cancellation rate dropped by more than 50%. That's somewhat intuitive though, someone committing to a $500 monthly payment is probably more serious and well-funded. 🤔 Confusing Cancellations Three buyers cancelled with only one payment left, which seems pretty unbelievable. In 8 cases, a cancelled LTO later sold again shortly afterward — 6 through LTO and 2 through BIN. The data doesn’t include buyer identity, but given normal domain sell-through rates and the short timing, these were very likely buyers coming back after missing a payment or regretting the cancellation. ⚡ Early Payoffs 17% of completed LTOs were paid off early. Nearly half of early payoffs happened close to the finish line, but of the early payers, 32% paid off after only 1–2 payments. 📈 LTOs By Year 2023: 13 (53 annualized) 2024: 106 2025: 114 2026: 57 (137 annualized) We're seeing a steady trend upward as LTOs stack up. 🎁 Wrap Up I hope this helps you get a better picture of what you might experience if you enable LTOs. The interesting takeaways for me were how heavily front-loaded LTO churn is, how longer terms reduce your odds of success, how little the monthly payment amount affects the odds except at the high end, and how more than 10% of cancelled LTOs still ended up in a sale shortly after.

Personal update: I've joined Anthropic. I think the next few years at the frontier of LLMs will be especially formative. I am very excited to join the team here and get back to R&D. I remain deeply passionate about education and plan to resume my work on it in time.

What happens when you post a real Monet and say it’s AI? The coolest art social experiment I’ve seen in a while. Thank you @SHL0MS

We used to go to a special website, ask strangers for help with programming, and get humiliated in return

Young Australians should be enraged by the new super tax. The statist talking heads will tell you "it's only on balances above $3M. The rich." Most Aussies will fall for it. Run the numbers. 35yo today. $200k in super. Contributes $15k a year. Earns 8% returns (long run super average). In 30 years their balance is $3.7 million. Caught by the tax. But here's the trick. Australia's money supply has grown about 8% a year for the past two decades. RBA's own data. So that $3.7M buys what $369k buys today. Same groceries. Same house. Same petrol. You didn't get rich. You ran on the spot. And the $3M line? Frozen. In 30 years it only buys what $300k buys today. It's lost 90% of its real value. The govt doesn't have to move the line. Inflation does the work for them. No different from the obscene overreach on anti-money laundering rules. The $10k cash transaction threshold was set in 1988 and never moved. $10k then is $26k in today's money. Adjusted for money supply growth, it's $170k. Same threshold. Almost 3x more transactions caught by CPI, 17x by money supply. That's why you get interrogated at the bank for withdrawing what only covers half a year of school fees. Same trick with income tax. Wages rise with inflation. Brackets don't. Suddenly the average worker is in a "high earner" bracket they were never meant to be in. You don't earn more. The line moved. This one policy tells you everything you need to know about the government and its intentions. It's all about grift and theft. Meanwhile, the kids who get hit hardest are kept busy by an education system arguing about hate speech, social media, and the climate apocalypse promised in 2012. Nobody teaches them how money actually works. The govt likes it that way. So they vote for more taxes. Bigger govt. More "fairness." Pouring petrol on the fire burning their house down. The fix isn't communism. It's the opposite. Smaller govt. Lower taxes. Index every threshold to the actual money supply, not the CPI lie. Decentralise the banks. Despite everything, Australians are entrepreneurial and predominantly hardworking. Imagine what this country could become without the government's boot on its neck.

Effective today, we are: 1) Doubling Claude Code’s 5-hour rate limits for Pro, Max, and Team plans; 2) Removing the peak hours limit reduction on Claude Code for Pro and Max plans; and 3) Substantially raising our API rate limits for Opus models.

Hello Julia, sans aucune ironie, c'est top que tu prennes le temps de te renseigner. Mais le problème quand on lit Marx aujourd'hui, c'est qu'on prend pour acquis sa prémisse de départ, alors qu'elle a été démontée scientifiquement il y a plus de 150 ans. Toute la pensée de Marx repose sur la théorie de la valeur-travail. L'idée que la valeur d'un bien vient de la quantité de travail nécessaire pour le produire. Si tu acceptes cette prémisse, alors oui, tout son raisonnement tient. Le capitaliste "vole" la plus-value du travailleur, l'exploitation est mathématique, la révolution est inévitable. Sauf qu'en 1871, trois économistes (Menger en Autriche, Jevons en Angleterre, Walras en Suisse) découvrent indépendamment la même chose : la valeur n'est pas objective, elle est subjective et marginale. Un verre d'eau dans le désert vaut une fortune. Le même verre à côté d'une rivière ne vaut rien. Le travail incorporé est identique. Donc le travail ne détermine pas la valeur. C'est le consommateur qui valorise un bien selon son utilité marginale dans un contexte donné. Exemple concret : tu peux passer 1000 heures à tricoter un pull moche que personne ne veut. Selon Marx, ce pull a énormément de valeur (beaucoup de travail incorporé). Selon la réalité, il ne vaut rien. Parce que personne n'en veut. À l'inverse, Bernard Arnault crée des milliards de valeur non pas parce qu'il "exploite" mais parce qu'il a su anticiper et organiser des désirs humains à grande échelle. La valeur est créée par la coordination, pas extraite par le vol. Cette découverte (la révolution marginaliste) a invalidé tout l'édifice marxiste. Pas pour des raisons idéologiques, pour des raisons scientifiques. C'est pour ça que plus aucun département d'économie sérieux au monde n'enseigne Marx comme un cadre d'analyse valide. On l'enseigne en histoire de la pensée. Maintenant, le truc important. Si ton intention en lisant Marx c'est d'aider les pauvres (c'est une intention noble), alors tu vas être surprise par ce qui suit. Regarde les chiffres de la Banque mondiale. En 1820, 90% de l'humanité vivait dans l'extrême pauvreté. Aujourd'hui, moins de 9%. Cette chute historique ne s'est PAS produite dans les pays qui ont appliqué Marx. Elle s'est produite dans les pays qui ont libéralisé leur économie. Chine post-1978, Vietnam post-1986, Inde post-1991, Pologne post-1989. À chaque fois qu'un pays libéralise, des centaines de millions de gens sortent de la pauvreté en une génération. À chaque fois qu'un pays applique Marx (URSS, Cambodge, Corée du Nord, Venezuela), c'est la famine et les goulags. Ce n'est pas une opinion, c'est l'expérience la plus massive jamais menée en sciences sociales. Plusieurs milliards de cobayes humains, sur un siècle. Donc paradoxalement, si tu aimes vraiment les pauvres, la position la plus cohérente n'est pas d'être marxiste. C'est d'être pour la liberté économique. Parce que c'est empiriquement la seule chose qui a jamais sorti massivement les gens de la misère. Pour creuser, je te recommande trois lectures qui vont changer ta vision : "La Loi" de Frédéric Bastiat (court, lumineux, gratuit en ligne) "La Route de la Servitude" de Hayek "Économie en une leçon" de Henry Hazlitt Bonne lecture, et vraiment chapeau de chercher à comprendre plutôt que de rester dans tes certitudes. C'est rare.

True multimodal AI needs to understand the world spatially 🎯 🚀 Excited to release #CVPR2026 TIPSv2 from @GoogleDeepMind, a foundational image-text encoder with spatial awareness, leading to strong overall results and massive gains on patch-text alignment. 🔥 1/N

Australia is the largest importer of diesel fuel in the world. It also holds the lowest fuel reserves of any IEA member nation — dead last out of 28 developed economies. Japan stockpiles 260 days. We're at ~26 and falling. Six of eight refineries have closed since 2013. We import over 90% of our refined fuel, mostly through a single chokepoint that's been closed for 37 days. I built fuelaustralia.org to track what's actually happening — in real time, from primary sources: — Live AIS tanker tracking (750 vessels, 40 confirmed inbound) — Government reserve data direct from DCCEEW Power BI — 90-day depletion projections with vessel delivery modelling — Daily intelligence briefings synthesised from 80 sources — Cargo type inference, multi-source vessel fusion, confidence grading — 28 evidence-backed policy solutions stress-tested against expert review Every data point sourced. Every claim confidence-graded. Independent and non partisan. Follow @FuelAustralia for daily briefings.

My dear front-end developers (and anyone who’s interested in the future of interfaces): I have crawled through depths of hell to bring you, for the foreseeable years, one of the more important foundational pieces of UI engineering (if not in implementation then certainly at least in concept): Fast, accurate and comprehensive userland text measurement algorithm in pure TypeScript, usable for laying out entire web pages without CSS, bypassing DOM measurements and reflow

Australia Fuel Outage Checker is now live! ⛽️🔗 = checkpetrol.com.au PetrolCheck shows current outages, prices & overall fuel supply stats based on publicly-available API data. Users can report fuel outages and submit new data. See below for more details 🔽

Of course that's your contention. You're a first-time SaaS bear. You just got finished listening to some podcast, Dario on Dwarkesh, probably. Now you think it’s the end of white collar work and seat-based pricing is screwed. You're gonna be convinced of that til tomorrow when you get to “Something Big is Happening”. Then you’ll install ClawdBot on a Mac Mini, vibe code a dashboard on top of a postgres database and say we’re all just a couple ralph loops away from building a Salesforce competitor. That’s gonna last until next week when you discover context graphs, and then you're gonna be talking about how the systems of record will be disintermediated by an agentic layer and reposting OAI marketing graphics. “Well, as a matter of fact, I won't, because ultimately the application layer is just ….” The application layer is just business logic on top a CRUD database. You got that from Satya’s appearance on the BG2 pod, December 2024, right? Yeah, I saw that too. Were you gonna plagiarize the whole thing for us? Do you have any thoughts of your own on this matter? Or...is that your thing? You get into the replies of anyone posting a SaaS ticker. You watch some podcast and then pawn it off as your own idea just to impress some VCs and embarrass some anon who’s long SaaS? See the sad thing about a guy like you is in a couple years you're gonna start doing some thinking on your own and you're gonna come up with the fact that there are two certainties in life. One: don't do that. And two: you dropped thirty grand on Mac Minis and LLM API calls to come to the same conclusion you could’ve got for free by following a handful of VC accounts.

INTRODUCING FIZZY Have you noticed that every issue and idea tracking tool you loved slowly morphed into boring, sluggish, corporate bloatware? Trello put on 40 pounds of cruft. Jira started charging by the migraine. Asana tried to become everything to everyone. GitHub Issues slipped into a steady state of decline. The whole category is a 20 car pileup of complexity. Time to route around that mess. Today we’re introducing Fizzy. Kanban as it should be, not as it has been. Fizzy is a fresh take on cards and columns, with a few twists, human-nature inspired defaults, and a vibrant interface that’s the opposite of the bland and boring software the industry has been flinging at you for years. Kanban has been around since the 1940s, and Trello brought it into the mainstream in 2011. Since then, some version of column-based kanban-style organization has found its way into any collaboration tool worth its salt. But most have over salted the dish. What was simple is now complicated. What was clear is now cluttered. What just worked now takes work. Fizzy presses reset, reconsiders what really matters, and presents a refreshing way to kanban that just feels right. It’s friendly, colorful, straightforward, and fast as hell. We still use Basecamp for our big, intensive projects, but lately we’ve been reaching for Fizzy to run the smaller ones. It’s perfect for tracking bugs, issues, and ideas, and it shines for lighter, self-contained workflows like podcasts or video production. We didn’t expect it, but Fizzy’s so good it might even cannibalize Basecamp on the lighter side of project management. We’d be thrilled. How much is it? It’s not much for so much. Everyone gets 1000 cards for free. Beyond that, we’ll host your account for just $20/month for unlimited cards and unlimited users. One price for all and everything. No tiers, no “contact us.” No pricing chart at all — just a price tag, like on a pair of jeans. And here’s a surprise... Fizzy is open source! If you’d prefer not to pay us, or you want to customize Fizzy for your own use, you can run it yourself for free forever. Have a great idea? Submit a PR to contribute to the code base and improve the product for everyone. It’s the best of all worlds. No excuses. Every idea comes back around. It’s time for take two on kanban. Fizzy’s our hat in the ring. Let’s make this platform insanely great, together. Come on in! Visit fizzy.do

You know markets are bad when USDC makes the top movers chart 😂

How I justify buying a $12k domain: If the business is valued at 5X ARR, I just need to gow it to $2,400 ARR ($200 MRR). With a $100/month plan, just 2 customers are needed to break even.

A domain odyssey.