Multi-assets strategist with actionable trading ideas based on global macro trend. Managed international institutional & High Net Worth individuals’ portfolios

Joined May 2015
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Volatility is returningβ€”and 2026 will reward those who understand cycles, not narratives. In this Monthly Meditation, @TheMacroButler lays out 10 clear, historically grounded forecasts to help you position ahead of a turbulent year. themacrobutler.substack.com/…
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🚨 THE FED'S WORST NIGHTMARE HAS ARRIVED 🚨 #Inflation won't go down. πŸ“ˆ Growth won't go up. πŸ“‰ And the @federalreserve is trapped right in the middle. Welcome to #Stagflation. Raise rates? πŸ’₯ Risk a #recession. Cut rates? πŸ”₯ Risk another inflation surge. Do nothing? 🍿 Watch both happen at the same time. For years, investors were told central bankers had everything under control. Now they're discovering that printing trillions, running record deficits, and fighting multiple geopolitical crises may have consequences after all. 🎯 The next decade won't be about chasing growth. It will be about protecting purchasing power. Watch before the market figures it out.
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In another landmark moment for a central bank that spent three decades perfecting the art of doing nothing, the @Bank_of_Japan_e heroically raised rates to 1% β€” its highest since 1995 and a number the rest of the developed world would recognise as still essentially zero, but which in Japanese monetary policy circles qualifies as a hawkish revolution worthy of a ticker-tape parade. The accompanying decision to pause bond purchase tapering was immediately punished by the super-long #JGB market, with yields on 20-year-and-above tenors rising on the entirely reasonable observation that pausing a taper does nothing to fill the structural demand void the taper already created β€” foreign sellers active, domestic buyers tentative, life insurers returning "selectively," which is polite bond-market language for "barely."
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In a nutshell, the BOJ declared a hawkish revolution at 1%, and the bond market responded by selling the long end β€” because stopping the bleeding doesn't close the wound.
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America's long-awaited manufacturing renaissance arrived in May and immediately sat down for a rest, with factory output flatlining after four months of gains β€” missing the consensus forecast with the quiet dignity of a student who studied the wrong chapter. The headline conceals a tale of two factories: durable goods, data centres, computers, and defence equipment hummed along heroically, with computer and electronic output up more than 4% over three months β€” its best run in five years β€” while nondurable goods manufacturing was dragged into the gutter by chemicals and petroleum, with synthetic dyes and pigments alone dropping 5.5%, a supply-chain casualty of the war that Washington declared won in Hour 1. Looking at the data with forensic precision, US factory output actually increased in only about one-third of categories β€” which is the polite way of saying two-thirds of American manufacturing is either stagnant or declining while the press release celebrates the remaining third.
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In a nutshell, America isn't experiencing a manufacturing renaissance β€” it's experiencing a very expensive data-center construction project with a war subsidy attached.
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#China's May data arrived like an uninvited houseguest bearing contradictions: retail sales fell 0.6% year-on-year β€” their first decline since the post-Covid reopening β€” fixed-asset investment retreated 4.1%, private investment slumped 7.1% at its worst pace since 2020, and car purchases plunged 16%, suggesting the Chinese consumer has studied the art of the closed wallet with monastic discipline. Meanwhile, the factory hummed heroically: industrial production climbed 4.5%, high-tech manufacturing soared 15%, semiconductors exports exploded 111%, and AI-related electronics jumped 17% β€” proof that the Middle Kingdom has mastered the ancient paradox of producing everything the world desires while its own citizens desire nothing at all.
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In a nutshell, China keeps selling magnificently to the world while refusing to buy anything from itself
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In another news that will confirm that the next great gold bull market will be driven by Asia, #Singapore has announced on June 15 that it will establish an over-the-counter gold-clearing system by end-2026, with six bullion banks β€” including @jpmorgan , @DeutscheBank and DBS β€” signing on to participate, in what can only be described as the financial world's most eloquent vote of confidence in a metal that the same financial world spent the better part of a decade dismissing as a barbarous relic. The Monetary Authority of Singapore will also introduce central bank vaulting services from October 2026, allowing foreign central banks to store bullion reserves securely in the city-state β€” which is a diplomatically refined way of saying that sovereign institutions would like their gold somewhere stable, well-governed, and not subject to being frozen by executive order before breakfast. cnbctv18.com/market/commodit…
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Asian consumers already account for roughly 70% of the world's annual gold demand, yet the region's infrastructure has not kept pace β€” a gap Singapore is now moving to close with the quiet efficiency it brings to everything it decides to be serious about. That JPMorgan, an institution not historically known for its sentimentality about gold, is among the founding participants tells you rather more about the direction of travel than any central bank survey or newsletter β€” including this one.
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🚨 THE US ECONOMY IS BOOMING... SO WHY DOES EVERYONE FEEL POORER? 🚨 Politicians say the economy is strong. Consumers say: 🏠 #Housing is unaffordable. πŸ›’ #Groceries cost more. ⛽️ #Fuel costs more. πŸ’³ #Debt is exploding. Someone is telling the truth. Someone is managing the statistics. The real economy isn't measured by press conferences. It's measured by what families can actually afford. πŸ“‰ Rising debt. πŸ“ˆ Rising living costs. πŸ“‰ Falling purchasing power. Welcome to the strange world where official numbers look great while consumers feel worse.
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The Ministry of Ever-Closer Union has announced, with the solemn gravitas of a press release written by committee, that Eurostan has taken "a major step forward" by agreeing to open the first accession negotiation cluster with #Ukraine and #Moldova β€” covering the "core values and principles on which the @EUCouncil is built, from the rule of law to strong democratic institutions" β€” a sentence delivered with a straight face by an institution whose founding members include France, currently on its third finance minister of the year, and Italy, which has not balanced a budget since the introduction of the #euro. enlargement.ec.europa.eu/new…
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Welcoming a war-ravaged nation into a fiscally insolvent union and calling it a strategic investment is either visionary leadership or the world's most ambitious exercise in shared denial.
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POLITICS, LOBBYING & POWER: THE STORY THEY DON'T TELL YOU IN FAKE NEWS MEDIA 🚨 Every election comes with promises. Every campaign comes with donors. And every major foreign policy decision comes with questions. πŸ’° Follow the money. πŸ—³ Follow the incentives. 🎭 Ignore the political theater. The real battle in Washington isn't always Democrat vs Republican. It's influence vs accountability. Who shapes policy? Who benefits? And who ultimately pays the bill? If you think politics is about principles, this video may surprise you. #AIPAC #Kentucky @RepThomasMassie
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🚨 STOP FOLLOWING THE NOISE. START FOLLOWING THE MONEY. 🚨 The media is obsessed with headlines. Smart investors are watching capital flows. πŸ“Ί News chases clicks. πŸ’° Markets chase liquidity. πŸ₯‡ Real assets preserve wealth. While everyone argues about the latest crisis, the biggest opportunities are in #gold, #silver, #energy, and hard assets. The crowd follows narratives. Successful investors follow signals. 🎯 The question isn't what people are saying. It's where the money is moving. Learn to Earn how to separate market noise from investment reality. themacrobutler.com/financial…
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πŸš€ @SpaceX IPO: THE BIGGEST OPPORTUNITY... OR THE BIGGEST TRAP? πŸš€ Everyone is already counting their profits. That's usually when investors should start asking questions. πŸ€” Why go public now? πŸ€” Who is selling? πŸ€” Is the growth already priced in? πŸ€” Are you investing... or providing an exit for early insiders? History teaches the same lesson: The most exciting #IPOs often arrive when expectations have already reached orbit. πŸŒ• The best company in the world can still be a terrible investment at the wrong price. Before you #FOMO into the next "can't lose" opportunity, watch this video. Because in finance, gravity eventually catches up with every rocket. πŸš€πŸ“‰
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In her final act as outgoing Director of National Intelligence β€” presumably before the Ministry of Truth reassigns the filing cabinet β€” @TulsiGabbard The Brave has spent her last weeks in office detonating a remarkable quantity of carefully maintained official fictions. First, she declassified intelligence slides confirming that the US government funded more than 120 biolabs across 30 countries, including over 40 in #Ukraine, information she says was "knowingly withheld from the American people" while officials including Dr. Fauci "lied repeatedly" about their existence β€” and threatened those who tried to expose the truth. dni.gov/files/BIOLAB_Slides.…
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Then, in a complementary act of institutional self-immolation, she retracted the intelligence community's own assessments on Havana Syndrome, finding they had selectively excluded inconvenient evidence, relied on an ethically flawed medical study, and were developed in a manner inconsistent with analytic integrity β€” which is the bureaucratic way of saying the reports were engineered to reach a predetermined conclusion while the afflicted diplomats and intelligence officers were quietly denied medical care. Taken together, the two revelations sketch a portrait of an intelligence apparatus that spent years simultaneously running programs it denied existed and dismissing the injuries of its own people with reports it now admits it fabricated. theepochtimes.com/us/gabbard…
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When the outgoing intelligence chief's farewell gift is proof that the intelligence community lied about biolabs and its own wounded, the conspiracy theorists are owed a very long apology.
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The Ministry of Beneficial #AI has announced, with the serene efficiency of a Friday evening 9 p.m. press release, that @AnthropicAI has been ordered to immediately pull the plug on all foreign access to Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 β€” including its own foreign national employees β€” just four days after their triumphant launch, citing a national security export control directive. The pretext is a theoretical universal jailbreak that, in a detail the government of the Empire apparently missed during its review, no tester has actually found β€” with disclosed potential jailbreaks described as either entirely benign or providing no model-specific uplift whatsoever. Anthropic had already warned before launch that perfect jailbreak resistance is not currently possible for any model provider β€” a philosophical position Washington apparently treats as a four-day processing time. anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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In the race to win the AI war, America's opening strategy was to confiscate its own weapon.
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