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Since the war began, Trump has said it 38 times. This one might actually be the good one. The 14 points of the memorandum that the two countries are expected to sign are circulating on the internet, But Iran said they have been changed and the actual points will be made known at the time of signing. WHAT'S CIRCULATING ON THE INTERNET? Among the most important points I found while researching are:1) I refer to a 60-day negotiation for the modalities of "elimination" of enriched uranium in Iran's possession; 2) Management of the Strait of Hormuz will be officially entrusted to Iran (which will control it jointly with Oman); 3) the US undertakes not to interfere in Iranian internal affairs and to no longer wage war against Iran; 4) Iranian assets unfrozen (the United Arab Emirates has already unfrozen $3 billion); 5) War reparations to the IRA. By the US and its allies of at least $300 billion. Beyond the fact that if these points were really there, it would be difficult for Trump to pass it off as a victory, we are more interested in the implications for the economy and the markets. At the moment, until the REAL agreement is ratified, these are just suppositions and conjectures. HOW DID THE MARKETS REACT? Very good, yesterday we saw a general rebound. $Brent has fallen below $90 per barrel, while $WTI is hovering around $84 per barrel. If the truce is signed in a few days, as announced, this will help keep the price of oil and gas lower, thus reducing the energy crisis to some extent. WILL PRICES RETURN TO WHAT THEY WERE BEFORE? No, it will take years for prices to fall back to pre-war levels. The problem is not only energy-related, but also concerns fertilizers (such as urea) which are essential for global crops. Investors will have to monitor the development of energy, raw material and fertilizer prices. We also saw a rise in inflation, which led the ECB to be the first central bank in the world to raise rates by 0.25% due to the energy crisis. Europe is not the only region of the world exposed to these shocks, and it remains to be seen how far inflation will actually go. We'll see the full effects in the coming months. However, hypothetical scenarios, at this point, don't point to particularly alarming inflation levels. Stay tuned!

BREAKING: It seems that Iran and the US have found a Memorandum to work on based on 14 points, including the reopening of Hormuz within 30 days of an agreement, Iran's management of the strait and the unfreezing of some of the assets frozen due to US sanctions. Will it succeed this time? After Trump has stated 38 times since the war began that there would be an imminent deal. Will this be the right time? Markets are certainly bouncing today precisely because of this news.

RIGHT NOW: ECB raises interest rate What do you think about? #ECB #InterestRate

Yesterday the market has experimented another difficult day, cause some reasons: 1) The broader market are down because inflation, Trump' affections, escalation between Iran and USA and oil prices gain (this it is a consequence of Trump's affection and escalation). 2) Semiconductor and industrial sectors have suffered as well as other cyclical sectors $AMD $ETN $Wärtsilä (in my and my copiers portfolio), but even $NVDA $AVGO $GEV... 3) the market pay the CPI data even as whitin the expectations, rose to 4,2% annualized and reached 2,9% increased YoY. Calital-intensive sectors pay more for the spectre of interest rate raises. 4) "USA hurt Iran because it took too long for respond" said Trump. The deal appear further away then ever now even as Heghset said that it is not the new beginning of the war. 5) Street of Hormuz is closed again, oil price raises and to investor it seemed like a self-feedind vicius cycle that only peace can break. 6) To complicate the picture SpaceX IPO drains liquidity from the market: investors close some positions to invest in the biggest IPO ever. It is scheduled for tomorrow. MY THOUGHTS? 1)More volatility in the short term. 2) Hold on investors, times like this require psychological discipline. #FinWit #investing