Trump is not necessarily intent on signing a deal with Iran, as he clearly recognizes that even if an agreement were reached, Iran would likely fail to honor it. Instead, his priority is to reshape the global energy landscape and fundamentally weaken Iran by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. It is worth noting that U.S. energy companies stand to gain the most from a closure of the Strait. Data from the energy consultancy Rystad Energy indicates that if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, U.S. oil and gas companies could generate over $60 billion in additional profits by 2026. Analyses by prominent social media influencers have missed the mark; in the current scenario, Trump emerges as the winner regardless of the outcome. By blocking the Strait of Hormuz to sustain high oil prices, Trump not only cripples Iran's economy and diminishes its overall strength but also—and perhaps more importantly—forces China to switch to purchasing U.S. oil and gas; this represents a major shift in the global energy landscape. Trump’s current tactic against Iran’s mullah regime is to deliberately stall for time; prolonging the situation maintains high oil prices, thereby generating massive benefits for the U.S. Once the mullah regime collapses and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, international crude oil prices will plummet, shifting the primary beneficiary from the U.S. to China—a scenario Trump is unlikely to facilitate by easily reopening the Strait. It should be noted that while Trump maintains high oil prices, this is a strategy to be executed rather than openly discussed; naturally, if prices become excessively high, he will step in to temper them. The United States has become the world's largest exporter of crude oil and fuel, displacing Russia and Saudi Arabia, which had long held energy dominance. The U.S. has topped the oil export rankings for three consecutive months; in May, exports reached 10.5 million barrels per day. The United States has become the world's largest exporter of crude oil and fuel, displacing Russia and Saudi Arabia, which had long held energy dominance. Trump aims not only to sustain high oil prices until Iran's economy collapses but also to compel China to purchase U.S. oil and gas—a significant transformation in the global energy landscape. Specific Data (May 2026) United States: Crude oil and fuel exports totaled approximately 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) (based on Vortexa vessel-tracking data). This was driven by high production levels, the release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), and global demand. Russia: Approximately 7 million bpd (Reuters estimate). Saudi Arabia: Approximately 5.9 million bpd (Vortexa data). Consequently, the U.S. surpassed long-dominant players Russia and Saudi Arabia. Comparison: 2025 (for reference) Saudi Arabia: Approximately 8.1 million bpd. United States: Approximately 6.6 million bpd. Russia: Approximately 5.8 million bpd. U.S. export volumes grew significantly in 2026, aided in part by geopolitical factors. Background and Drivers Since February 2026, U.S.-Iran tensions—including disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz—have unsettled Middle East oil supplies, prompting refiners in Asia and Europe to turn to U.S. crude as an alternative source. Robust U.S. shale production (particularly from the Permian Basin), with crude output nearing or exceeding 13.7 million bpd, combined with SPR releases, further boosted exports. The U.S. was already the world's largest crude oil producer and had become a net oil exporter in 2020. Export capacity expanded dramatically following the 2015 lifting of a 40-year export ban. Today, the U.S. leads in total export volume, shipping not only large quantities of crude oil but also significant amounts of refined products (such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel). Data Note: The specific figures for May come from the vessel-tracking service Vortexa (a real-time estimation method widely used in the industry)