US consumer spending is losing momentum: The Chicago Fed projects retail and food services sales, excluding autos, fell -0.3% MoM in May. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January 2025 and the 3rd-largest since March 2023. This decrease would follow a 0.7% increase in April and a 1.9% increase in March. After adjusting for inflation, sales are estimated to fall -1.3% in May, the largest monthly drop since at least 2023. That would mark the 7th monthly decline over the last 9 months. American consumers are struggling to keep up with inflation.

HULL WAR PREMIUMS just rose again. Despite a handful of transits. Despite ceasefire talks. Despite diplomatic announcements. The market is sending a signal that the diplomatic track is not. Before February 28 a VLCC transiting Hormuz paid 0.15% to 0.25% of hull value for war risk cover. Today the same transit costs 2.5% in most instances and 5% for vessels with US, UK or Israeli connections. At 5% on a $200 million vessel that is $10 million for a single passage. Lloyd's CEO Patrick Tiernan confirmed premiums surged to roughly five times the level seen in the earliest days of the war and they are rising again now despite the handful of transits that have taken place. The insurance market does not price announcements. It prices demonstrated, sustained, predictable safety. A handful of transits under contested conditions some dark, some under Iranian procedures, some under US escort does not constitute a stable risk environment that underwriters can price down. Premiums rising despite transits resuming is the market saying something specific: the transits that are happening are not evidence that the strait is safe. They are evidence that some operators are willing to pay extraordinary sums to move cargo that cannot wait any longer. That is a distress signal dressed as normalisation. lloydslist.com/LL1157452/Hul…

BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf responds after Israel attacks Beirut, Lebanon, on the same day President Trump said a peace deal was coming. He says the Israeli attacks have "shown that America either lacks the will to fulfill its commitments or the ability to do so." "By giving the green light to the regime, you cannot gain concessions. The game of bad cop and good cop is outdated. If you lack the will and ability to fulfill your commitments, speaking of continuing the path is not possible," Ghalibaf says. The Iran Deal appears to be at risk again.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis: China now has 30% of the world's manufacturing capacity and has essentially the ability to destroy industries across the globe, and certainly in Europe. This is a topic that we need to take very, very seriously. We cannot just allow our industrial base to be completely annihilated simply because we're in search of always the cheapest product.

US consumer spending is losing momentum: The Chicago Fed projects retail and food services sales, excluding autos, fell -0.3% MoM in May. If confirmed, that would be the biggest decline since January 2025 and the 3rd-largest since March 2023. This decrease would follow a 0.7% increase in April and a 1.9% increase in March. After adjusting for inflation, sales are estimated to fall -1.3% in May, the largest monthly drop since at least 2023. That would mark the 7th monthly decline over the last 9 months. American consumers are struggling to keep up with inflation.

Saudi state TV reported US and Iranian delegations held an online meeting with mediators from Pakistan and Qatar in attendance. A memorandum of understanding is to be signed in the presence of Vance and Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf, which, if signed, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow vessels to transit without fees. (mktnews.com/flashDetail.html…)

Barely mentioned in the Sorsby discourse: Almost everything he did was illegal. -- Underage gambling -- Using other peoples' identities/accounts -- Sending money to friends out of state to place bets for him. The latter 2 could incriminate others as well. (Continued.)

🇨🇳 🚢The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index jumped by 9.5% w/w, to 2985.22. $SCFI #Shipping #Shanghai #China

Former MI6 Chief Richard Moore: Without China, Russia would have lost war in Ukraine. North Korean troops and Iranian drones grab headlines. But what keeps Putin in Ukraine is China — chemicals for artillery shells, components for drones and missiles. 1/

🚨🎙️🚨 New College Football Enquirer pod: The Big 12, Brendan Sorsby and an unprecedented situation unfolding within the college sports landscape bit.ly/4ehKpXP