As I recently wrote in
@TheNatlInterest, the war in Lebanon is not just a local conflict. It's the heart of the broader regional crisis and war. My piece, in sum, below 🧵
•Israel's war on Hezbollah and the broader destruction of Lebanon continues despite multiple so-called "ceasefire" agreements (Nov. 2024, April 2026, Jun 3). Israel has repeatedly violated all of them, in no small part because the latest ceasefires openly allow it to continue firing on Lebanon.
•Hezbollah is heavily battered but still capable of asymmetric warfare. It entered the fight in Oct. 2023 in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza after Israel launched its genocidal campaign there.
•Israel bears primary responsibility for the ongoing war, maintaining an indefinite military occupation of sovereign Lebanese territory and exporting what officials call the "Gaza model" of displacement, destruction, and ethnic cleansing.
•For Netanyahu, perpetual war is a political survival strategy. Facing a corruption trial and possible prison time, he needs a strongman image to stay relevant in an increasingly far-right Israel as early elections approach.
•Israel is deliberately using Lebanon as leverage across the region, escalating pressure on Hezbollah and Lebanon whenever ceasefire talks in Gaza or with Iran gain momentum.
•Israel is playing a two-sided game with Iran: Either Tehran demands Lebanon's inclusion in U.S.-Iran talks (potentially blowing up negotiations), or it doesn't, leaving Hezbollah exposed and the IDF free to keep striking it and Lebanon more broadly.
•The Trump administration has been broadly pro-Israel but has shown it will break from Netanyahu at key moments, forcing ceasefires in Gaza and with Iran when U.S. interests demanded it. But Trump has also proven to be one of the most, if not the most, pro-Israel president in U.S. history. He has failed to rein in Israel repeatedly, consistently, and sustainably through the multiple points of leverage Washington holds over Tel Aviv.
•A real resolution requires the U.S. to push harder: full IDF withdrawal from Lebanese territory, a genuine ceasefire, and the right of over 1 million displaced Lebanese to return home and rebuild.
The regional war will keep burning until Israel's occupation ends and until the region's actors understand that maximalism and violence do not produce sustainable results. Israel sits at the core of this problem, but it is the United States that holds they key to truly resolving it.
It just needs to make that decision, shifting its failed foreignp policy approach to the Middle East once and for all.
nationalinterest.org/blog/mi….