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Feb 6
$BTC macro rough estimates using Fibonacci retracements and extensions. This thread also has details of the internals if you want to refer to it, plus my call for a 125K top months ahead. Most will again turn bullish on the coming rally—and that's natural—but having perspective in advance is always better IMO. This will be pinned for macro reference purposes
8 Oct 2025
$BTC Macro Idea: Expanded B Wave - Running/Expanded C, likely expanded. I prefer WXY over ABC with an ending diagonal due to RSI divergence suggesting WXY upward. However, it’s not 100% reliable, so keeping an alternative ABC is wise. This is for macro/higher time frame reference; I’ll track lower and micro time frames separately and announce updates or changes as usual.
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AnoopLilly retweeted
It can still push up as the MTF has tiny waves which can be 1,2's but ZZ channel should respect somewhere here
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$BTC updated, made some minor changes here based on the recent weekend scam move. Please read the chart with notes!
Jun 14
bitcoin:native Can also be a WXY Wave 1 diagonal instead of ABC Wave 1 like this and go higher too. So keep both in horizon for now.
Diagonol moves are very tricky with its corrective internal waves. Something which is simpler after the fact than anticipatory count.
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It can still push up as the MTF has tiny waves which can be 1,2's but ZZ channel should respect somewhere here
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Crude Oil invalidated that previous idea, PA is ranging, so it makes sense to be in a sideways consolidation pattern like this. Let's see how it goes. But this needs a good bounce soon in couple of weeks
Jun 10
Crude Oil 4Hrs looks good so far with RSI bullish divergence and holding the channel bottom, so hoping the expanding diagonal ended. Based on that assumption FIB extension for Y and C of Y projected here. Anyways this is my last hope for oil, lose this then it must have a 5th truncated already.
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Jun 14
bitcoin:native Can also be a WXY Wave 1 diagonal instead of ABC Wave 1 like this and go higher too. So keep both in horizon for now.
Diagonol moves are very tricky with its corrective internal waves. Something which is simpler after the fact than anticipatory count.
Jun 14
$BTC update; already in Wave 5 of Diagonal, Wave 4 didn't pull back as much but a 23.6% retracement is enough to validate the count. IMO one more leg to up is due!
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Jun 14
$BTC update; already in Wave 5 of Diagonal, Wave 4 didn't pull back as much but a 23.6% retracement is enough to validate the count. IMO one more leg to up is due!
Jun 13
$BTC update: Triangle possibilities are cancelled out. Now the next bearish possibility to cancel out is the FLAT bottom as shared earlier. The bull count is a leading diagonal if BTC bottomed. However, it seems unlikely as the move up seems very weak—a wave 3 is very weak here and not typical for a bullish diagonal. It's more of a bearish flattish diagonal. But you never know!
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Jun 13
$Gold updated, and included what I am anticipating but can change based on the next data. For now this is the expectation and it is bullish count.
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Jun 13
$BTC update: Triangle possibilities are cancelled out. Now the next bearish possibility to cancel out is the FLAT bottom as shared earlier. The bull count is a leading diagonal if BTC bottomed. However, it seems unlikely as the move up seems very weak—a wave 3 is very weak here and not typical for a bullish diagonal. It's more of a bearish flattish diagonal. But you never know!
Jun 10
$BTC still not resolved. We need low 59.08K or high 64.74K break to really make any solid case. So its just waiting mode
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Jun 11
As suggested by @Psibirskiy here, I had time to look into the MTF properly and I do agree with him and believe either 5 waves down on SP & NASDAQ or still has move to down left if Wave 4 is incomplete (not very likely)
Jun 10
your yellow 1 down is prob a subwave 3...more obvious on SPX & SP futures
the W4 I think is just asking too much in size for that degree in yellow..and then factor in Div
So a 5, C or A of Y...or diag W3 at the bottom most likely over that imo
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Jun 10
$BTC still not resolved. We need low 59.08K or high 64.74K break to really make any solid case. So its just waiting mode
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Jun 10
Crude Oil 4Hrs looks good so far with RSI bullish divergence and holding the channel bottom, so hoping the expanding diagonal ended. Based on that assumption FIB extension for Y and C of Y projected here. Anyways this is my last hope for oil, lose this then it must have a 5th truncated already.
Jun 9
Crude Oil: Made minor change to the WXY, price is at critical level and at the channel bottom and must bounce from here to remain in this vertical range for upward move. Go below the "X" Or "4" price will invalidate this in entirety
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Jun 9
NASDAQ future likely in Wave 4 now
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Jun 9
Crude Oil: Made minor change to the WXY, price is at critical level and at the channel bottom and must bounce from here to remain in this vertical range for upward move. Go below the "X" Or "4" price will invalidate this in entirety
May 30
Crude Oil bulls must step in here, I am expecting the channel to provide some support. Counting is a mess. You can have a lot of other ways to count but only picking the most probable ones here. Wave 4 location varies based on correction and it's start will decide the move to up. WXY move is for Ending Diagonal Wave 1
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Jun 9
Updated possible paths on bitcoin:native
Jun 7
$BTC Zoomed IN possibilities:
(1) Impulse completed
(2) Wave 4 in larger triangle Or
(3) Expanded FLAT.
Personally I am not convinced that Wave 5 ended due to the time less taken by Wave 4, but I have been wrong before and can always :)
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Jun 9
Move from down is a ZigZag:
x.com/LillyAnoop/status/2064…
Jun 9
bitcoin:native made some changes and updated the potential moves, Expanded FLAT C can be ending Diagonol too not shown here, so you have to count the ZigZag (white) as Wave 1 Or W for that purpose
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Jun 9
Draining at an Unprecedented Pace to manipulate oil price. This will not end well. Lowest level in 40 years
Jun 8
US SPR crude inventories fell by ~7.9mb w/w to 349.2mb last week #oott
Sour down ~4.1mb to 216.0mb
Sweet down ~3.8mb to 133.2mb
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Jun 9
bitcoin:native made some changes and updated the potential moves, Expanded FLAT C can be ending Diagonol too not shown here, so you have to count the ZigZag (white) as Wave 1 Or W for that purpose
Jun 8
$BTC Bottomed? These are current possibilities off the low, I am unsure if it bottomed! Need to break the low or invalidate these possible corrective patterns.
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Jun 9
Or like this with 5th truncation much better
Jun 9
Note that some exchanges truncated that ending diagonal there, so keep in mind doing the count
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Jun 9
Note that some exchanges truncated that ending diagonal there, so keep in mind doing the count
Jun 8
$BTC Bottomed? These are current possibilities off the low, I am unsure if it bottomed! Need to break the low or invalidate these possible corrective patterns.
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