Kevin Warsh's first FOMC as Fed Chair is this week... the most important Fed meeting of the year IMO. Markets are pricing in a hawkish hold already. If Warsh acknowledges inflation as energy-driven (U.S-Iran situation), markets will rally, especially AI infrastructure like $NVDA, $AMD, $MRVL, and more. (and yes, small caps should rally even harder) If the Fed signals more unexpected rate hikes are coming this year, expect turbulence. Hard spot for Warsh tbh. He needs to show independence (can't appear to fold to Trump's pressure)... but the cooler core inflation gives him wiggle room. He'll likely keep rates on hold and say he's waiting for more data. Either way, this is the moment that determines how soon we'll start to rally.

The United States largest retirement program is facing a financial turning point. According to the latest annual trustees report from the Social Security Administration, the Social Security retirement trust fund is now projected to be depleted in 2032. Under current projections, only about 78% of scheduled retirement benefits would be payable after 2032. One out of every four dollars promised to retirees could vanish, resulting in an immediate benefit cut of approximately 22% for millions of Americans. For decades, Social Security collected more in payroll taxes than it paid out, building up a large trust fund surplus. But Longer lifespans, Baby Boomer retirements, lower birth rates and slower payroll tax growth have forced Social Security to rely on its trust fund reserves. Social Security won't go bankrupt in 2032, but unless Congress acts, benefits would be automatically cut because federal law only allows payments from available revenue. Over 70 millions Americans who depend heavily on Social Security income, such reductions could have severe consequences.

🚨 本周一，要出大事了！ 所有人都觉得最大的风险是 $SPCX 上市那天。 错。 如果你以为事情结束了、市场还要涨， 你大错特错。 因为 IPO 之后，所有人都看清楚了同一件事： SpaceX 的需求，大得离谱。 散户要 基金要 机构也要 但钱不会从天上掉下来。 要买更多 $SPCX，就得有现金。 要现金，就得卖掉手头的东西： → 股票 → 加密货币 → AI 股 → 高 beta 科技股 全都是散户手里持有的。 这不只是 IPO。 这是流动性黑洞。 所有人都看到马斯克的热度，但几乎没人看到：为了买 SpaceX，什么会被卖掉。 现在把线连起来： IPO 已经发生，需求已经爆炸，超额认购已经疯狂。 没拿到足够份额的人，周一会追 $SPCX。 基金要追，散户要追，机构要追。 但所有人首先需要美元。 当所有人同时需要美元的时候，市场不会温和轮动—— 他们先砸流动性最好的东西。 比特币、科技股、AI 股——全是最流动的。 这才是真正的危险。 接下来只有几种可能： 轻度：周一有人卖小仓位，股票先挨打，加密货币跟着，然后试图稳住。 重度：IPO 后基金筹现金，高 beta 科技股崩，比特币失守，散户被埋。 最惨：周一所有人同时冲进 $SPCX，拥挤交易流动性枯竭，股票狂跌，加密货币最先被砸，爆仓潮。 而历史上最热的 IPO 之一，正在吸收更多资金。 这不是理论。 $SPCX 周五 IPO。 流动性抽离周一到来。 市场还没定价。 但会定价的。 我研究宏观 10 年，几乎喊过每一个重大顶部，包括 10 月 BTC 历史高点。 关注我，开通知。 我会在消息上头条之前发警告。

和平之路用金钱铺就。 😂😀✌️ 中东国家竞相为伊朗提供资金。 阿联酋在为伊朗解锁200亿美金。 卡塔尔正在将120亿美元拱手让给伊朗：60亿美元是此前被冻结的资金 另外60亿美元作为新的贷款/信贷额度。 第一笔60亿美元应用于“人道主义”用途，第二笔则由卡塔尔管理，但德黑兰决定如何使用。 海湾阿拉伯国家实际上是在付钱给德黑兰以换取和平。 接下来，如果媒体报道属实的话，还有美国牵头的3000亿美金也在路上。 …… 也难怪MAGA们在骂：“这是打的什么仗？这是他妈的什么和平协议？” 哈哈哈。

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iranian FM Spox Esmaeil Baqaei loves the cold water approach: "We have to wait and see about the exact time of signing. We have no plans to travel to Geneva or anywhere else in the next day or 2." No rush from Tehran. No Geneva photo-op tomorrow. Source: IRIB / Writer: Oliver

No, this isn't accurate. Credible reports show the US and Iran are nearing a diplomatic agreement to end the conflict, with Trump canceling recent planned strikes and talks advancing toward a possible signing soon. US forces have conducted prior strikes this month amid the broader 2026 tensions, but no new major fighter jet deployments or operations are underway tonight. The video looks like older or unrelated footage. Stick to verified sources like CENTCOM or major outlets for updates.

Operation underway. Our fighter jets are over Iranian airspace. Strategic targets are being engaged. This mission will continue until objectives are achieved.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran’s Foreign Ministry just poured cold water on the hype: The Islamabad memorandum will not be signed tomorrow. Nuclear issues are not part of this stage. Focus is only on ending the war. A signing could still happen in the coming days, but they’re warning about “the other side’s inconsistency.” The victory parade Trump’s running is hitting traffic in Iran. Still no signing. Still no trust. Source: IRIB, Press TV / Writer: Oliver

🇮🇷 Iran is preparing a massive state funeral for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The funeral will take place around July 13-18, with ceremonies across Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad, ending with burial at the Imam Reza Shrine, one of the most important Shia holy sites in Iran. Khamenei’s body has reportedly remained unburied for more than 3 months because of the war, security concerns, religious timing, and the expectation of enormous crowds. Authorities are preparing for what could become one of the largest public gatherings in modern Iranian history. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Sol

🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! → Fed just confirmed rate HIKES. → SpaceX IPO sucked ALL liquidity from the market. → U.S.-Iran peace deal is officially CANCELLED. → China and Japan are DUMPING US Treasuries. If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this: When markets open next week, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Insiders already know what's coming. They are not buying assets right now. They are reducing exposure and preparing for the biggest risk-off event of the year. At the same time, pressure is intensifying throughout the global financial system. China is continuing to reduce Treasury exposure. Japan's bond market is collapsing and the BOJ is forced into emergency support operations. When the world's largest creditors step away from sovereign debt markets simultaneously, liquidity evaporates. → Japanese bond yields are exploding higher → Demand for U.S. Treasuries is deteriorating → Global bond markets are under extreme stress → Energy markets remain highly unstable → Liquidity conditions are tightening everywhere → Volatility is spreading across every major asset class → And the SpaceX IPO has just absorbed a massive amount of liquidity This is no longer a localized issue. This is systemic stress building across MULTIPLE sectors simultaneously. And now geopolitical risk has entered the picture. Energy markets become impossible to control. Oil does not rise slowly. It goes parabolic. Critical shipping routes become exposed. Global supply chains become disrupted. Inflation accelerates worldwide. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not correct. They DUMP. This is exactly how financial chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing long-term instability instead of short-term uncertainty, everything changes. I have spent decades studying macro cycles, liquidity flows, and systemic market reactions like this. When the next move becomes clear, I will share it publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time the mainstream media starts reporting it, the opportunity is already gone.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says Trump caved on the money. A top adviser to the supreme leader reportedly claims the $24 billion in frozen assets will be released, and that Washington simply will not say so out loud. Major General Mohsen Rezaei, the same official who declared weeks ago that the entire deal hinged on that number, now says Trump agreed to it without announcing it. The claim lands after Trump blasted Iranian descriptions of the terms as fake, and it is exactly the kind of statement he was blasting. The two versions may both be technically true. The CBS reported terms have relief arriving staggered and sequenced to compliance, which lets Tehran say the money is coming and Washington say nothing was handed over. Source: DD Geopolitics on TG / Writer: Daniel

The S&P 500 July 2024 pattern is still looking good. Today was the market jump it was predicting. According to the pattern Monday should be a selloff followed by an even larger market jump on Tuesday. If the pattern is repeating, that will be the trap. The market reversal could begin because of VIXpiration or Kevin Warsh's 1st Fed meeting on June 17

Only possible in America 🇺🇸

他离2028越來越远。 随着白宫掩盖爱泼斯坦档案公布内幕的爆料，加上对于伊朗战争，他没有善始善终。 如今，在党内党外，两头不是人。 哎。可惜。

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

👁️💥这篇伊朗人写的推文，在网上热传，值得那些认为川普总统，在伊朗问题上反复和软弱的人，请好好看看👇 📌转～作为在伊朗长大的人，我最想让大家记住的一件事： 欺负人的人，只有遇到比他更狠的角色，才会真正退缩。 川普总统的做法看起来混乱、非常规、充满颠覆性，但这恰恰是它可能管用的原因——因为伊朗神棍政权本身就是混乱、非常规、完全不按常理出牌的。 这不是一个正常政府。它不遵守任何规则，也不在乎形象和道德。对毛拉们来说，“外交”从来只是撒谎、欺骗、掩盖真实意图的漂亮说辞。 谁要是跟他们讲规矩、玩得体外交，谁就先输了。 现在他们终于撞上了一个不吃这一套的人——一个随时掀桌子、不守外交礼仪、让他们完全猜不透的角色。他们再也无法像过去耍弄奥巴马那样耍弄他。这次要是继续玩火，代价可能会非常惨重。因为川普总统不像奥巴马那样，他把手指随时放在扳机上，却又不像内塔尼亚胡那样，会有很多牵制。 他看似混乱的风格，还有一个更深层的原因：全球旧体系和各大势力长期靠维持现状、暗中保护这个腐败政权来捞好处。川普总统正在把这个旧秩序砸烂。 对他来说，整个谈判和交易过程，本质就是一场软战争。目的是用最小代价，一点一点拆掉政权的武装、削弱它。 就算最终签了协议，他也不会停手。他会继续施压，直到这个政权被掏空、虚弱到伊朗人民终于有机会自己站出来对抗并推翻它。 这不会一夜之间发生，但看当前走势，方向已经很清楚。 川普总统知道自己在做什么。他不是在作秀，也不是在表演给谁看。他在拿自己的政治资本下大注。这是一个巨大的赌，但不代表不会赢。 如果说有一个人能真正把伊朗从这个癌瘤里拉出来，那就是他。没有别人。 相信他，相信这个过程🔥 喵评：另外补充一点，他没提到的，是川普总统在这个调教弱化教训伊朗神棍的过程中，其实真正箭指的是下一步的灭共大战，现在必须表面上合情合理地，维持全球能源掌控和对共匪的能源锁喉——最好是共匪暂时无理由，有鱼死网破似的大的反弹，这种温水煮共匪的路数，对灭习共及江曾王在全球的势力，是极为有利的😎 x.com/iranidaturan/status/20…