Analyst at a Multi-Family Office in šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ. Don’t listen to me for investment advice & DYODD!

Joined August 2020
8 Photos and videos
$FZR.AX officially filed to dispute the Snowy River buyout clause. Whilst the outcome is uncertain the market price of the royalty is >$40m easily. I’d expect a settlement but interesting times! cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap…

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Whilst I was wrong on timing, buyout proceeds are in šŸ’Ŗ Interestingly, FZR is considering options to challenge to the buyout off the premise that Endura was ā€˜fully funded’ in late 2025. Could be a major change if the royalty goes live, I’ve got it worth ~$60m at a US$4k oz …
Have progressively built a position in $FZR.AX on the back of an imminent catalyst & potential wind-up of the company. My first go writing my thoughts on a position, please check it out! Link below. open.substack.com/pub/little…
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Whilst there is global energy uncertainty a cash backed US based oil producer isn't the worst place to park capital. Particularly when they're engaging a major shareholder returns strategy, ensuring cash comes back to you! open.substack.com/pub/little…

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Little Trees Capital retweeted
So here’s the issue you get influencers like this guy have a quarter million followers and they claim they don’t know why it is declining… it’s because they don’t understand basic mechanics of price discovery. They don’t understand that the marginal buyers or the float determines price they think the onchain bitcoin is that is the price discovery Well, it was once upon a time but now.. Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market. This is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin. This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated. The original premise that no longer exists Bitcoin’s entire valuation logic was built on finite supply (21M) and inability to be rehypothecated. That died the moment: •Cash-settled futures •Perpetual swaps •Options •ETFs •Prime broker lending •Wrapped BTC •Total return swaps were layered on top of the chain. From that moment forward: Bitcoin supply became theoretically infinite. Not on-chain in price discovery. The metric that explains the collapse Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR) Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce — and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market. That is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin. This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated. Why Wall Street can now ā€œtrade againstā€ Bitcoin They do exactly what they’ve done in every commodity market: 1.Create unlimited paper BTC 2.Short into rallies 3.Force liquidations 4.Cover lower 5.Repeat They are not ā€œbettingā€ — they are manufacturing inventory. The same 1 BTC can now support: •An ETF unit •A futures contract •A perpetual swap •An options delta •A broker loan •A structured note All at once. That is six claims on one coin. That is not a market. That is a fractional reserve price system.
Bitcoin actually tagged $73,000 today, which is borderline insane. What’s remarkable is no one actually knows what’s happening and why price is going down. It’s all predicated on some BS glitch narrative from 3 months ago and the 4 year cycle which means absolutely nothing.
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$GNC.AX taking a šŸ“‰ as they announce lower than expected FY26 earnings (grain production in šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ is strong but pricing is weak so farmers aren’t sending grain through GNC facilities) Trading near BV ($5.95 at 30 Sep), for irreplaceable šŸ‡¦šŸ‡ŗ Ag infra assets Buy with a 3-4yr hold?
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So is the FY26 guide of $200-$240m EBITDA a ā€˜trough’ pricing in a cyclical industry (see movements in ECA tonnes handled below, Receivals & Exports are key drivers for EBITDA) or a structural change (note that pre FY20 EBITDA through the cycle guide was ~$200m)
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Whether you take mgmt. view of through cycle EBITDA $320m or a more pessimistic $220m $GNC.AX feels cheap at 3.3x EV/EBITDA (using $320m EBITDA) or 4.7x EV/EBITDA (using midpoint of FY26 guide) when compared to historic Val range of 5.1->8x & ~1x P/B
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Absolute madhouse at Elanor Investors Group (ENN.AX) being a great example of: - Minority investors being hosed, - Mockery made of investor rights (& ASX suspension rules) Absolute šŸ’©show Disc. No position but have watched over time

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A ā€˜Not fair but reasonable’ option given by the independent expert and existing shareholders are diluted by >50% as well!
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Micro/Nano Cap ASX Co.’s continuing to deliver the goods, case in point $GUE.AX. A merger arb with: - ~45-50% upside - Ability to fully hedge acquirer shares (once acquisition ratio is locked down) - Major SH supportive - Scheme timing locked in - FIRB approval in hand DYODD
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I've had success investing in companies that have delisted from public exchanges over the past 2-3 years. This is one I originally invested into in late 2024 but recently acquired a much large position. Hopefully it's an interesting read! open.substack.com/pub/little…
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As mentioned in Endura Minings latest update they have secured the necessary financing to progress the development. I’m still of the view that Endura will buy out the royalty between now and the 28th October
Have progressively built a position in $FZR.AX on the back of an imminent catalyst & potential wind-up of the company. My first go writing my thoughts on a position, please check it out! Link below. open.substack.com/pub/little…
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Have progressively built a position in $FZR.AX on the back of an imminent catalyst & potential wind-up of the company. My first go writing my thoughts on a position, please check it out! Link below. open.substack.com/pub/little…
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