I cover politics and forecast elections at RacetotheWH, and came the closest to predicting the House correctly in 2022. @ColumbiaSIPA Alum
Joined January 2019
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Jun 2
Predictions for Election Night:
Iowa Dem Senate: Zach Turek narrowly defeats Zach Wahls, winning 52.57% to 47.53%. Wahls has a 39% chance at an upset.
NM Dem Gov: Deb Haaland wins win ease, beating Bregman 68.29% to 31.71%. She has a 98.2% chance at victory.
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Jun 2
IA Senate GOP: Ashley Hinson is likely to dominate tonight. I have her beating Jim Carlin 75.83% to 24.2%
NM Gov GOP: Greg Hull has a 68.4% chance to win, and I project he gets 45.1%, followed by Doug Turner at 36.6%, and Duke Rodriguez at 18.2%. 31.4% chance of an upset
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Jun 2
Bonus - if you're looking for arguably the biggest race of the day, the California Governor race, I predicted it here. x.com/LoganR2WH/status/20619ā¦
Jun 2
The gap between the top three candidates is so miniscule. While I think the most likely outcome is Steyer v. Becerra, it would take just the slightest over-performance to turn this into a Becerra v. Hilton or a Steyer v. Hilton general election.
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Jun 2
Final Projections for California Governorš§µ
Xavier Becerra has zoomed ahead and is slightly favored to finish on top - while Steyer may narrowly eclipse Hilton, which would lead to a Republican lockout.
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Jun 2
3. I take my projections for each candidate, and simulate the election 60,000 times. In each simulation, candidates will randomly over/underperform - and this is influenced by the projected miss I calculated in step 2.
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Jun 2
That's how I was able to make a prediction on the odds each candidate has of making the general election, and the frequency that we see each matchup. Let me know if there's any other primaries you want to see a forecast for.
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May 28
Today, we got two 2028 Dem Primary polls showing:
1. Pete Buttigieg in first place (at around 17%)
2. Gavin Newsom in second place (at 13-16%)
3. AOC in third place with 11-12%
4. Kamala Harris in 4th place (!) with just under 9-9.9%
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May 28
A lot can change before the race officially begins in 2027, but right now this is looking like a free for all, with a top four of Harris, Newsom, Buttigieg, and AOC - with many viable contenders that have a chance to break out who are currently in the single digits.
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May 28
That includes candidates polling at around 4-7% like Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, Mark Kelly, and JB Pritzker. It also includes those that don't have much support today, but have a ton of political talent, like Jon Ossoff and Wes Moore.
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Logan Phillips retweeted
May 28
2028 Democratic Primary Polling Update:
For months, Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom have dominated the race. Now, both have fallen below 20%, while Pete Buttigieg has surged to almost 15%, followed closely behind by AOC at 12%.
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Logan Phillips retweeted
May 27
Democrats new lead in the generic ballot is now D 7.1% - their highest since we started tracking the polling back in January of 2025.
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