Investment Analyst at Gotham City Research LLC since 2012 Expertise: Discovering new ways of losing money. “Question unchallenged assumptions.”
Joined February 2009
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Mar 23
The three most dangerous words in finance:
“Guaranteed minimum return”
Mar 23
OpenAl is offering private-equity firms a guaranteed minimum return of 17.5%, as well as early access to models not yet in public release.
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Jun 12
I know it’s 2026 and nuance is illegal but you can simultaneously think SpaceX rocketry is unimpressive while also thinking a $2T valuation is deep value.
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Jun 12
But seriously dudes you’ve got to hand it to Elon …no matter what happens from here, he’s going to go down in history.
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Jun 12
Watching the SPCX IPO is more exciting than watching the NBA Finals…
NOT SORRY
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Jun 11
Isn’t that Taylor Swift’s father, sitting behind her ?
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Jun 11
The bright and shiny objects of yesterday:
- Some are dead (remember NFTs?)
- Some are out of favor (many examples)
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Jun 10
N=1
Jun 10
Adjusted for inflation, Elon is wealthier than every Gilded Age titan you have read about in history class
The upcoming Space X IPO will make the difference in numbers even larger
We are witnessing history in real time
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Jun 9
There’s only one right answer here, do you see it ?
Who would you rather work for over the next two years if you had a choice - assuming similar comp and location:
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Jun 10
I say it’s Druckenmiller. Why ? I haven’t seen anyone articulate why he is no brainer the right answer IMO. For me it’s not because of anything wrong with the other choices, btw.
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Jun 9
There are many posts about Situational Awareness: some full of envy/doubts, others with admiration/respect…
But no one is talking about how Situational is a great example of: make single fund managers great again!
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Jun 9
I'm sure luck has benefited Situational, however
(1) I think the below viral post (that it's all been marketing) is false and thus it may be at risk bearing false testimony: "You shall not bear false testimony"
(2) I can't read people's minds, but it is also written: "You shall not covet your neighbor’s house; you shall not covet your neighbor’s wife, or his male servant, or his female servant, or his ox, or his donkey, or anything that is your neighbor’s"
x.com/jamesthomason/status/2…
Jun 8
The entire Leopold story is marketing BS. And you fell for it.
Dwarkesh Patel's assistant is the brother of Leopold's fiancée's boss, who is Anthropic's chief of staff.
Every investor he "attracted" had a pre-existing, years-old personal relationship with him built inside the EA and Stripe social graph before his essay existed.
Every dollar was raised from billionaires he already knew who were behind the deals he "picked".
Carl Shulman, who actually heads research, is 45 years old, formerly at Peter Thiel's macro hedge fund Clarium Capital, and has deep roots in AI forecasting and the EA safety world.
Clarium was itself a concentrated macro fund built around a single big thesis (peak oil, dollar collapse). It blew up spectacularly in 2008–2010, losing roughly 90% of AUM.
You didn't watch a prodigy go viral. You watched a controlled fund launch.
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Jun 8
The so-called “oldest profession” seems to be inflation-hedged well over thousands of years.
Jun 7
Five years ago, it was rare for escorts to charge more than $1K per hour. Now, a handful of women charge much, much more: $3k, $5k an hour. $23k a day. $30k a weekend.
Inside the shifting economics of intimacy in Silicon Valley:
forbes.com/sites/annatong/20…
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Jun 4
Goldman Sachs is pumping SPACEx off a 10 sigma event by 2030, while dumping or helping to dump spacex stock.
Does Goldman Sachs sincerely believe its opinion as it is simultaneously dumping shares ?
If not , isn’t that criminal market manipulation?
Jun 4
GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.
AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
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Jun 5
Just to be clear I am not singling out Goldman Sachs or Andrew Left. What I am saying is that if the activity of opining on or promoting a financial position while simultaneously closing the position is a problem if you don’t sincerely hold to your opinion - if this is a crime - then there are many guilty parties on both the sell side and buy side
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Jun 5
MORGAN STANLEY SEES SPACEX ADJ. EBITDA TOP $2.7T IN 2040: WSJ
Does Morgan Stanley sincerely believe this? What if they don't but with 100% certainty are selling SpaceX stock and stand to benefit as they promote this sincere or maybe not view?
The Companies currently with the largest annual EBITDA in the world, generate something like 200-250 billion in Adj EBITDA. For these to grow to 2.7 trillion by 2040, they have to grow at 18% per year every year for the next 14 years...
x.com/negligible_cap/status/…
MORGAN STANLEY SEES SPACEX ADJ. EBITDA TOP $2.7T IN 2040: WSJ
Incredible
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