On June 4th I posted “Coming into today, I was concerned over the increasing near-term bubble like behavior in the which the SOXX was up a staggering 95% from the market closing lows on March 30th through yesterday June 3rd which drove a 19% rally in the S&P.” There were numerous signs of near-term froth and I believed they would need to be worked off.
However, coming into today, the morning of June 11th, the S&P is now down 4.5% from its recent closing high while the SOXX is down 12.3%. While the SpaceX IPO tomorrow in which a staggering ~$75B will be raised in the largest IPO in history may cause some of their large cap peers to be sold, I think that should be the final negative catalyst in the near-term.
I also wrote on June 4th, “I remain bullish over the long-term given 1) S&P earnings are expected to increase 25% this year driven by the advent of Agentic AI, 2) I believe oil prices will come down, and 3) new Fed Chairman Warsh is likely to push back against calls to raise rates.”
$ORCL results last night once again pointed out how the spending on AI continues driven by the token generation required by Agentic. Capex was guided to $90-95B including pre-payments for FY27 from $56B in FY26. While not good for Oracle cash flows or their hyperscale competitors which are locked in a capex war, it is great for the beneficiaries of that spend in semiconductors. I believe starting to add back positions in this sector once again makes sense and that the sell-off in the overall market is near an end.
I believe this is the pause that refreshes.