Lover of finding out what people think, UK Director @Moreincommon_ šŸ³ļøā€šŸŒˆšŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦

Joined December 2016
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🧵New polling looks at the public reaction to Henry Nowak's murder, police failings and more general views about policing. Along with focus groups, its v.clear whatever people think of wider issues Henry's murder and the police response have shaken many Brits
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In our Makerfield constituency poll we also asked people how they might vote in a future EU referendum. Despite the fact the constituency voted 65% to Leave in 2016 our poll suggests residents would now be more likely to vote to rejoin.
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Obviously this is hypothetical, things would shift during a campaign and when the terms of any rejoin offer were known, but does suggest some assumptions about the perpetual ā€œleavinessā€ of certain areas doesn’t match where people are currently.
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Luke Tryl retweeted
ā€œHe’s running to be the local MP… but he’s also running to be Prime Ministerā€ @LukeTryl wonders whether Andy Burnham’s ambitions could hinder his chances in the Makerfield by-election. Can he be both a good local MP and Prime Minister? Listen to Episode 10 for more Makerfield analysis šŸ”— podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcas…
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Luke Tryl retweeted
Fascinating focus group in Makerfield this week. When @LukeTryl asked voters what they thought of Keir Starmer, there wasn’t an angry response, instead they laughed.
ā€œThis is when you know a politician has lost it" @LukeTryl gives his verdict on Keir Starmer after a group of voters in Makerfield laughed when asked how the Prime Minister is doing Listen to #ElectoralDysfunction wherever you get your podcasts šŸ”— trib.al/08mGxXm
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šŸ†• @Moreincommon_ /@UCLPolicyLab poll for @thetimes finds @AndyBurnhamGM leading the race in the Makerfield by-election but over 1 in 10 still undecided about their vote and Restore Britain currently saving their deposit. Andy Burnham on track for Makerfield win — thanks to Restore Britain thetimes.com/article/5e8bd4c…
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One thing is clear from this poll and our focus groups were it not for Burnham’s personal vote this race wouldn’t even be close. Starmer’s approval is -48 in the seat, Burnham’s is 7, an extraordinary gap and that Burnham is positive at all in this anti politics era is something
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It seems Reform’s candidate choice may again be a decisive issue ,. Across our groups some felt Kenyon’s past comments were irrelevant, but many others who might have otherwise backed Reform didn’t like the fact he hadn’t apologised and also he seemed too ā€œwet behind the earsā€
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Luke Tryl retweeted
TIMES EXCLUSIVE: NEW MAKERFIELD POLL BURNHAM 45% REFORM 40% RESTORE 8% More in Common/UCL Policy Lab, 28 May-12 June, 515 adults thetimes.com/uk/politics/art…
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Luke Tryl retweeted
WATCH: What does this focus group of voters think about Burnham, Reform, Restore? Why do they feel let down by Lab & can Burnham win a place that turned Reform in the local elections back? @LukeTryl asks the Qs Big team effort: @JoshGafson1 producing & Finn Lehane leading the šŸŽ„
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Luke Tryl retweeted
Just how confident are the Burnham and Reform campaigns ahead of next week's by-election? Listen to episode 10 as @lara_spirit joins @LukeTryl to talk all things Makerfield šŸ”—ā¬‡ļø tr.ee/pMONGLjEql
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Luke Tryl retweeted
Being strong is when you do something against your party’s wishes but in line with the public’s desires. This can last. Being tough is when you do something that neither your party nor the public want & then you try to tough it out for as long as possible. And then you fail.
Replying to @LukeTryl
Whatever happens next it should be a cautionary tale about confusing ā€˜being tough with being strong’ as @marcusaroberts often says, but also reaching for off the shelf technocratic policy solutions without thinking about how to land them and how to shape them.
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I am genuinely interested in the counter factual where winter fuel didn’t happen. Nearly 2 years on it still comes up more often than not in focus groups (and contrary to what some assume just as often from non pensioners) as the moment people lost faith in Starmer and his Govt
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Whatever happens next it should be a cautionary tale about confusing ā€˜being tough with being strong’ as @marcusaroberts often says, but also reaching for off the shelf technocratic policy solutions without thinking about how to land them and how to shape them.
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Maybe I’m wrong, but I think there is an over 20% chance Starmer’s premiership would not be in the current doom spiral with public opinion (and then politically) absent winter fuel.
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