In this convincing critique, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of U.S. Army Europe, expresses deep skepticism regarding the feasibility of proposed security guarantees by Trump for Ukraine.
“There is no such thing as Article 5-like.” - Ben Hodges.
“Does any Ukrainian, any Ukrainian believe for one second that vladimir putin will live up to any agreement? Of course not. Nobody believes that, that putin could be trusted.
The only way that he would not fill into the whatever part that Ukrainian troops came out of would be if there were thousands of American, German, British, French soldiers sitting there. That's, otherwise, it will be a very short amount of time before you have either Russian troops or you have Rosgvardia or some other unknown separatist quasi-things that the Russians would try to say, "Well, that's not us. We didn't do that," just like they did back in 2014.
So how anybody could trust that Russia would actually live up to some agreement like that, I think that that would really be, you'd have to suspend belief to accept that.
The idea of this when I hear this phrase "Article 5-like," I mean, what does that mean? Article 5 means an armed attack on one shall be considered an armed attack on all. So if the United States is offering Article 5-like, that means if Russia attacked Ukraine again, then that would be as if Russia had attacked the United States. Do you really think, does anybody really think that this administration would actually do something about it?
And what's an attack? Is it one Shahed drone or does it have to be 500 Shahed drones or Russian troops overrunning, you know, another Ukrainian city? I mean, what constitutes an armed attack?
So there is no such thing as Article 5-like. I mean, this administration does not even enforce the sanctions it has already put in place. India's oil import from Russia has gone up in October and then again in November, even though these latest tough sanctions were put in place.
So I personally, I have zero confidence that the Trump administration would do anything to enforce this kind of agreement.
Now again, the burden and the risk is on Ukraine, not on old retired people like me on the outside watching. But as I look at what's happened over the last year and indeed over the last several years, I would be very reluctant to agree to something with Russia if it depended on Russia living up to it in good faith or depending on the United States.
This is where you would have to see a very strong European force that was there, not one that's sitting in Poland, but a European force in Ukraine that has real capability, has real rules of engagement, and has the capability to shoot back immediately when Russia tests—as they inevitably will test immediately.”
( Full interview in the comments )