Originally, I planned to share this only in the private group, but after thinking about it, I decided to make it public.
First, let me talk about my market view.
From a long-term perspective, I remain bullish for the second half of this year and even into 2027.
Fundamentally, I don’t think future Valve updates will have much power to significantly damage the market. The expected Terminal Knives Case, for example, likely won’t have a major impact because knives have already been decoupled from the broader market for quite a while. The only updates I believe could truly shake the market would be old cases / legacy collections returning, or another major adjustment to trade-up mechanics.
The broader direction is actually quite simple: 1st-gen gloves and essentially everything from older cases remain the clearest long-term winners. Collections, on the other hand, likely need another full bull cycle and capital rotation before seeing their biggest move.
Now let’s talk about taxes.
This is still an emotional market. In the short term, tax-related news can absolutely cause pullbacks. But once sentiment recovers, I believe taxes will have very limited long-term impact on the market itself. Buy orders are already slowly climbing back.
During the aggressive pumps over the last few days, I repeatedly reminded everyone to set profit-taking targets and manage position sizing. Our VIP group has reduced overall exposure from nearly full allocation down to around 40–50%, gradually trimming from around 920 all the way to 982.
The current pullback is healthy.
A real bull market will always give you opportunities to get in. Being around half-position right now feels very comfortable — you can still participate in upside while keeping enough capital ready. If we see a deeper correction after the Major ends, you’ll also have plenty of dry powder to buy the dip.
For retail traders, especially those chasing heavily accelerated small-cap items, profit-taking is extremely important. When the correction comes, these are usually the first and hardest to dump.
I also keep seeing accounts hyping Windking nonstop, so here’s one important piece of information: according to him personally, after this bull cycle he plans to move behind the scenes and step back from the spotlight for a while.
To summarize:
If you’re a long-term holder, there’s no need to worry too much about the market. Short-term pullbacks can actually be great entry opportunities.
If your goal is to maximize swing profits, then position sizing and laddered profit-taking are critical.
For smaller capital, I still think the main battlefields inside thousand guns — especially M4A4 sectors — deserve the most attention.
The rest… isn’t something I can comfortably share in public.
If you made it this far, drop me a free like :)