NSE Certified Market Professional Level 3 | Behavioural Finance | Equity Trader | Founder Northbridge Capital Research |Retd. Indian Army Captain

Joined December 2024
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May 2026 Performance: Total Trades: 18, Wins 9, Loses 9 Win Rate 50% Avg Win R= 1.9 Avg Losing R= 0.67 Reward to Risk Ratio= 2.83 Profit Factor= 2.83 Positive Expectancy=0.62 Std Dev of R= 1.99 SQN Score= 3.09 Running R (after fees)= 11.08 Total Returns= 7.4%
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Market tip #1 "The market will giveth, the market with taketh" Your duty is to ensure that you have a statistical edge, that helps you take more when it gives, and give back less when it takes. And that edge can only be developed, when you have backtested and forward tested your strategy across multiple market regimes, and understand the Positive Expectancy/expectancy value, of your strategy across all those regimes. You double down in regimes where the positive expectancy is highest, you cut down or sit in cash where positive expectancy it is low or negative. This is what "taking more when it gives, and giving back less when it takes", really means. You have to backtest every different variable in a strategy. Different types of Entry tactics, Position sizes, stop loss sizes, trade management tactics, profit taking etc.. Even a slight change in any of these has to be backtested separately on its own strategy. From my own experiences, small variables in your strategy make huge differences in outcomes. Eg. I used large stops and therefore small position sizes while backtesting Startegy #1, it return was 9%, win rate was 42% win rate I used a smaller stops based on ADR, with larger posn size, for Strategy #2, same stocks, same dates, same entry price. Return was 32%, win rate 29%. Small variables, big differences. My backtesting also revealed that selling partials into strength, was much less profitable trending markets, than trailing your full position. As selling partials (1/3rd or 1/2), significantly reduced upside, while not reducing downside. Selling partials only worked, if you are using 3 staggered stop losses for each trade, which reduced your loss per trade from -1R to -0.66R. Hence limiting down side, while also limiting upside. These things can only be discovered if your strategy has been throughly backtested. Do not follow people blindly like sheep. Be your own leader, do the grunt work. Backtest, foward test, backets, foward test. Change the variables..and backtest, foward test again..change again..and repeat. Do the hard work, develop the insight and understand the Positive Expectancy of your strategy. Cheers
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Market tip #2 "Risk management is more important than making a profit" In all my posts i mention the risk per trade first, and then follow up with the percentage gain and R-multiple gain per trade. The reasoning is simple. You cant make a profit, if you dont survive. Even if you posses the best market edge, you need to survive long enough to let that edge works itself out and make you a return. Even high win rate strategies with smaller Reward to Risk ratios can have losing streaks, and if you position yourself incorrectly, you could face deep drawdowns or blow up your account over a course of weeks or months during those losing streaks. #SwingTrading
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16 Jun 2026 Closed Trades #CUPID= TSL Hit by aggressive whick, Sell Avg 156.5, 13.8%, 4.53R Realised, 3.02% PF Impact. #SPORTKING= TSL Hit, Sell Avg 182, Breakeven, -0.04% PF Impact New Entries #MTARTECH= Avg 7502, RVOL>3, SL 3.5%, 0.67% Open Risk (19% Posn Size) #PREMEXPLN= Avg 724.5, RVOL>5, SL 4%, 0.67% Open Risk (17% Posn Size) Holding #PARAS= No Risk #AEROFLEX= No Risk #DECNGOLD= No Risk Will update performance after hours Presently 94% invested, 1.34% Open Risk Market breadth has improved by around 4% as of 10:00am. Yesterday, despite a large breadth improvement, a majority of breakouts failed to hold. There were more breakouts on Monday, as compared to Friday, but the failure rate was significantly higher. The probability of a continuation rally is still high, but a days of cooling off may occur after the past 2 days of aggressive breadth improvement.
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16 Jun 2026, After Hours At Days end, Market Breadth above the 10MA remained unchanged from the prior day, but improved across the board above the 20/50/200MA's. Therefore today was a good day for the market, but the strongest stocks above the 10MA faced pullbacks and profit taking. Probability of continuation trend still remains high. Closed Trades #CUPID= TSL Hit by aggressive whick, Sell Avg 156.5, 13.8%, 4.53R Realised, 3.02% PF Impact. #SPORTKING= TSL Hit, Sell Avg 182, Breakeven, -0.04% PF Impact New Entries #MTARTECH= No Risk, SL breakeven as Price had hit 1R intraday, 2.62%, 0.74R Unrealised (19% Position Size) #PREMEXPLN= Open Risk -0.67%, 1.84%, 0.45R Unrealised (17% Position Size) Holding #PARAS= No Risk, 17.8%, 7.1R Unrealised (27% Position Size) #AEROFLEX= No Risk, 8.5%, 2,4R Unrealised (19% Position Size) #DECNGOLD= No Risk, 15.9%, 2.8R Unrealised (12% Position Size) Presently 94% invested, 0.67% Open Risk. Note: 1R=0.67% of PF
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15 Jun 2026 Very powerful 25% breadth improvement from Friday, with a very strong follow through of previously held positions and holdings. Confirmation of a ceasefire and re-opening of the strait were primary triggers. Market technical action has rewarded those who followed the price on Friday, 12 Jun. New Position #DECNGOLD= Avg 174, RVOL>5, SL 5%, No risk; already at breakeven, (12% Position Size, residual amount) Holding's #PARAS = No risk #CUPID= No risk #AEROFLEX= No risk #SPORTKING= No risk will update all performances in detail after market hours 100% invested today, No open risk
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15 Jun 2026, After Hours New Position #DECNGOLD= No risk, 10.7%, 1.9R Unrealised (12% Posn Size) Holding's #PARAS = No risk, 19.8%, 8R Unrealised (27% Posn Size) #CUPID= No risk, 19.88%, 6.6R Unrealised (22% Posn Size) #AEROFLEX= No risk, 9.95%, 2.8R Unrealised (19% Posn Size) #SPORTKING= No risk, 0.82%, 0.23R Unrealised (19% Posn Size) Presently 100% Invested, No Open Risk, 19.5R Unrealised Gain.
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12 Jun 26 Market Breadth improved by 15% as of 10am today, due to positive news from the West Asia War. As a result new entries were taken. New Entry #SPORTKING = Avg 182, RVOL>2, SL 3.5%, 0.67% Open risk (19% Posn Size) #AEROFLEX = Avg 434.72, RVOL> 2.4, SL 3.5%, 0.67% Open risk (19% Posn Size) Holding #CUPID= No Risk (22% Posn Size) #PARAS= No Risk (27% Posn Size) will update performance after hours 87% invested, 1.34% Open Risk
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12 Jun 2026 After Hours Remarkable breadth improvement by almost 30%. New entries have done ok, Holdings did really well. New Entry #SPORTKING = Open Risk, 0.3% Unrealised, Not moved (19% Posn Size) #AEROFLEX = Open Risk, 3.1%, 0.95R Unrealised (19% Posn Size) Holding #CUPID= No Risk, 16.3%, 5.4R Unrealised(22% Posn Size) #PARAS= No Risk, 18.6%, 7.4R Unrealised(27% Posn Size) Presently 87% invested, 1.34% Open Risk Cupid up again, Paras retraced all loses and made a new unrealised high in the portfolio. Remember, follow the rules, no panic selling in drawdowns, follow your SL and TSL. No FOMO buying, unless like today the breadth improves significantly and the market gives you the signal to enter, or a signal of possible regime change. Do Not attempt to predict the market. Trading is not prediction, it is Probability. You are not smarter than the market, neither am i, accept it and move on.
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11 Jun 2026 Market Breadth shows no signs of improvement as of today morning, the #Nifty / broader indices reflect that, and are presently negative and choppy Low probability environment, with high failure/squat rate. No new Swing Posns until 10% breadth improvement at least.
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11 Jun 2026 The 40 day relative gain of the small cap index vs the Nifty 50, has fallen by nearly 41%, between 20 May and 10 June. Key word here is "relative". ie. On 20 May, the 40 day relative gain of SC100 vs Nifty 50 was 12.62%, as of 10 Jun, it has fallen to 7.36% The avg Market cap of my trades is 38,000 cr. 95% of my trades are Small/Micro Caps (Less than 30,000 Cr Market Cap) therefore both relative weakness and absolute weakness in the small caps, means that the probability of successful follow through will reduce significantly. Squats and fades will increase considerably, hence blunting my strategy's statistical edge. I'll let current holdings of #CUPID and #PARAS run till they hit their TSL. But no new trades will be entered, until there is improvement in breadth and 37 day relative gain of the Small cap 100 vs Nifty 50.
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11 Jun 2026 After Hours No New Posn today. Fall in market breadth was only -3%, despite weakness in broader indices. Suggesting some underlying strength may still exist. Holding #CUPID = No risk, 13.1%, 4.4R Unrealised (22% Posn Size) #PARAS = No risk, 6.9%, 2.8R Unrealised (27% Posn Size) Presently 49% invested CUPID has held strong despite market weakness, PARAS has weakened and is in a pullback, close to its TSL. There will be no premature selling or profit booking, i will hold them till they hit their TSL. No Fomo no Fear, just follow the rules
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A very important perspective that most trading coaches don't talk about. Big money is only made in trending markets. India has been ranging for about 1.5 years now, even professionals have had difficulties. Big winners are rare. Hence be patient, trade small, keep learning.
The last 3 years have been really hard to trade & i honestly have made progress but it's not easy for beginners. FY25 - 74% gains FY26 - 30% gains FY27 - 6% currently. But just a message to everyone out here, the indian market swing trading is really getting hard with every single passing days except brief periods of a comfortable swing experience. For anyone wanting to start full time trading in indian market only leaving your job is not at all a good idea. Please dont leave your job for full time swing trading. These long periods can really frustrate you as a beginner as you have not made the easy money in the post 2020 rally that will give you buffer to hold on.
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10 Jun 26 New Entry #SASKEN= avg 2393.58, RVOL>1.5, SL 3.5%, Open risk, (19% Posn Size). Holding #PARAS= No Risk #CUPID= No Risk #DATAPATTNS= No Risk Presently 95% invested, 0.67% Open Risk
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10 Jun 26 Update #SASKEN= SL hit, -0.67% PF impact. RVOL collapsed after entry.
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10 Jun 26, After Hours Closed Trades #SASKEN= SL hit, -0.67% PF impact #DATAPTTNS= TSL hit, Breakeven Holding #PARAS= No Risk, 12.5%, 5R UR #CUPID= No Risk, 9.5%, 3.2R UR Presently 49% invested, No open Risk. CUPID and PARAS held well, New entry failed. Breadth fell by -10%
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9 Jun 2026 Waited for an improvement of market breadth by 10%, for a new entry today New Entry #DATAPATTNS= avg 4348.28, RVOL>3.5, SL 2.5%, Open Risk, (27% Posn Size) Holding #PARAS= No risk, (27% posn size) #CUPID= No risk, (22% posn size) Presently 75% Invsted
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#DATAPATTNS= Good move buy point today, SL moved to breakeven, No Risk. Posn's in #DATAPATTNS, #PARAS, #CUPID. 75% Invested, No Open Risk Waiting for breadth improvement of 10%, did not guarantee success, but it improved the probability/odds of a succesful follow thru
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9 Jun 2026, After Hours New Entry #DATAPATTNS= No risk, 4.83%, 1.9R, UR (27% posn size) Holding #PARAS= No risk, 12.4%, 4.95R, UR (27% posn size) #CUPID= No risk, 6.07%, 2.1R, UR (22% posn size) Presently 75% Invested, No Risk PF Unrealized Gain= 6.5 %, 9.77R
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