@MSmithsonPB profile picture
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB

Election analyst and gambler who's been running his award winning blog since 2004. Pic is of grandad Charles campaigning in Lancashire in late 1920s

Joined February 2009
  • Tweets 48,197
  • Following 399
  • Followers 37,910
8,432 Photos and videos
Donald Trump and I were born within 36 days of each other in 1946. My aim is to outlive him
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Beware the Bookie rules before betting on a GE2024 overall majority – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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The SNP’s lead in Scotland down to just 7% – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…

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Will GE2024 produce a majority seats winner without a majority of votes? – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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On health grounds alone betting that at least one of them won't be there looks like a value Smarkets bet
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Latest WH2024 polling has Biden ahead of Trump but losing to Haley – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…

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Peter Mandelson could well be right – LAB’s poll lead is artificial – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…

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Ken Clarke is dead right on the Rwanda bill – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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Mike Smithson retweeted
Deltapoll@DeltapollUK
29 Jan 2024
Regarding perceived economic competence, the gap between @UKLabour and @Conservatives narrows to twelve percentage points. Come back next week for updates on all of our weekly trackers.
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Mike Smithson retweeted
David Morton@DavidMorton359
28 Jan 2024
In election year watch Opinium. It has the methodology most favourable to the Tories. Their new poll has a 15% Labour lead ( 2% ). theguardian.com/politics/202…

Voters think Labour would be better than Conservatives on housing and house prices

Opposition would do better on issues including the economy, health, education, the environment, immigration and crime, public says

theguardian.com
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Hobson’s Choice? The Subpostmaster issue – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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Nikki Haley moves up 12% in new WH2024 poll – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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How many CON Mps will join these 52 before the election? – politicalbetting.com Institute of Government politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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When can we expect the Home Secretary's resignation? I thought that he would have gone by now
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Nikki Haley see huge jump in latest YouGov New Hampshire poll and now just 15% behind Trump. She is my longshot bet for the nomination
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Is a negative campaign against Starmer really going to work? – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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Just 38% of GE2019 CON voters are certain to do the same next time – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…

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How to increase taxes while saying you are cutting them . Call it a "contribution" as in NIC Are We All Trussites Now? – politicalbetting.com politicalbetting.com/index.p…
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MOTD running order
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Nikki Haley moves to a 5.8% net favourability lead over both Trump and Biden. She's the only one surely who can beat Trump for the GOP nomination realclearpolitics.com/epolls…
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