Global Macro Analysis | Economic Trends, Policy Insights & Markets | Weekly Threads on Key Economies | Join the conversation on the evolving world economy 🌍📊
Joined March 2025
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1.The Fed prints $9 trillion.
2.Asset prices absorb it.
3.Inflation arrives.
4.Rates go up to fight it.
5.Housing becomes permanently unaffordable.
The median home now costs $429,300.
The median family earns $106,800.
Step 5 is done.
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Jun 10
The last three recessions all had one thing in common: nobody thought they were coming.
Right now, six separate fault lines are developing at the same time.
Any one of them is manageable. Together, they’re a different question entirely. 👇
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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JUST IN: OpenAI just filed confidentially for an IPO.
SpaceX. Anthropic. And now OpenAI.
The most anticipated IPO pipeline in history is about to open. All at once.
Retail just got invited to buy the AI revolution at peak valuation.
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The market spent 9 weeks pricing in perfection.
One jobs report and one Broadcom earnings call ended it.
🔹 The Nasdaq just had its worst day since the tariff crash.
🔹 $1 trillion wiped from chips in a single session.
And the Fed hasn’t even met yet.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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👉 A decade of underinvestment
👉 A world rewiring its supply chains
👉 A dollar with structural headwinds
The commodity supercycle isn’t coming.
It’s here.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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137,623
Everyone is celebrates record highs.
I’m watching GDP miss, PCE surge and a peace deal Trump hasn’t even signed yet.
This rally has a very short fuse.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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May 28
#JUSTPUBLISHED
The next global selloff will probably start with a currency most people stopped watching.
Here’s why the yen is still the most important price in the world.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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May 17
🔹 Inflation hit a 3-year high
🔹 Wholesale prices posted their biggest monthly spike since 2022
🔹 The S&P 500 closed at a record high anyway
Your portfolio is living inside the most contradictory market of the decade and the Fed has no clean way out
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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May 10
#JUSTPUBLISHED
🔹 Your portfolio is being priced by a peace deal that has collapsed three times already
🔹 Oil swung 20% in a week
🔹 A new Fed chair takes over in days
This is not a normal market.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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The Fed has 4 dissenters, no rate cuts in sight, and a new chair in 12 days.
The Fed just told you everything.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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Apr 19
#JUSTPUBLISHED
Markets nearly hit a record high while Iran closed the world’s most critical oil chokepoint twice in one week.
Someone is badly wrong.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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Apr 15
The S&P 500 just did something it has done only 0.3% of the time since 1950.
9.8% in 10 days.
The last 10 days have been unlike almost anything in modern market history.
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Apr 14
The S&P 500 just erased ALL its Iran war losses
Markets are pricing in a deal.
Meanwhile, Citadel’s Ken Griffin warns 6 more months of Hormuz closure would mean a global recession.
Markets vs Griffin. Who’s right?
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Apr 13
S&P 500 sectors YTD through Apr 10:
📈 Energy 27.1%
📈 Materials 14.4%
📉 Tech -3.1%
📉 Healthcare -4.8%
📉 Financials -7.3%
The great rotation is real.
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Apr 12
#JUSTPUBLISHED
The relief rally is over. Peace talks collapsed, Trump just blockaded Hormuz & oil is heading back up.
Here’s what your portfolio does now.👇
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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Markets are up on a ceasefire that lasts 14 days.
Don’t mistake relief for resolution.
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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#JUSTPUBLISHED
“Wall St. will rally Monday on 178K jobs.”
Don’t fall for it. Here’s why this report is a trap 👇
open.substack.com/pub/macroi…
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