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May 22
What if investment research could start with a better database?
Ask a market question. Connect the data. Build a clearer view. 💯
MacroMicro AI is built on 100M core data points across global macro, industries, companies, ETFs, central-bank decisions, earnings reports and more.
Every conclusion is drawn from a verifiable, traceable trusted database, combined with MacroMicro’s research frameworks and market context.
It is coming after July.
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⚠️ The risk is not a rate hike, it’s a hawkish dot-plot shift.
Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC decision as Fed Chair on June 17 could force markets to reprice 3 key risks:
1. Dot plot shift toward no cuts
The March SEP median showed one 2026 cut, but the dots could shift toward no cuts and a higher-for-longer rate path.
2. End of RMPs / T-bill purchases
The Fed’s reserve management purchases have slowed, while Q3 Treasury issuance is set to rise sharply.
3. Less forward guidance
If Warsh gives fewer policy signals, markets may lose a key anchor, increasing volatility.
Follow MacroMicro and watch the June 17 Fed decision closely to spot market risk signals early: pse.is/96ha6f
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🇰🇷 South Korea's semiconductor shipment volume fell 5.2% YoY in May while total value increased 169.4%, a reflection of prices rising 119%.
Capacity is fully committed to HBM and high-density DRAM. Buyers absorbing that price increase without substituting volume means the seller has pricing power unconditional on delivery terms.
Hyperscaler capex is pulling through everything on offer. Signs of demand softening are nowhere to be found.
🔗 Read more: en.macromicro.me/blog/wefc-a…
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⚠️ BREAKING: 🇯🇵 The BOJ voted 7–1 to raise its policy rate target to 1.0%, bringing Japan’s policy rate to its highest level since 1995.
Monthly JGB purchases will be cut by about ¥200 billion each quarter until Jan.–Mar. 2027, then maintained at around ¥2 trillion per month from April 2027, while the BOJ may increase purchases if long-term yields rise rapidly.
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🇯🇵 Japan's June rate decision comes in a few hours, but the implications extend far beyond the Japanese economy. With the yen under pressure, bond yields climbing, and memories of past carry trade disruptions still fresh, investors are increasingly questioning whether a shift in BOJ policy could ripple through global markets.
To this end, we examine the hidden dynamics beneath the headlines and explore what two closely watched indicators may be signaling about the risks, opportunities, and market reactions that could lie ahead.
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⚠️BREAKING: China’s retail sales fell -0.6% year-on-year in May 2026, the first decline since December 2022!
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🇯🇵 Tomorrow is Japan’s rate decision day and this week is packed with central-bank risk.
From the BOJ to the Fed, markets are watching whether policy signals could shake the yen, Treasury yields, tech stocks, Bitcoin and broader risk assets.
6/16 | Japan Rate Decision
Will a stronger yen trigger carry-trade unwind pressure?
6/18-19 | Fed Decision
Dot plot and tone matter more than the rate move itself.
Track the key events before markets move: pse.is/97ey2g
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Jun 15
🇺🇸🇮🇷 A US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unwinds four months of the largest recorded energy supply disruption. Brent and WTI retraced sharply; equities followed on the same logic: lower oil prices, less energy-driven CPI pressure, less reason for central banks to hold tight. May headline CPI came in above 4%, but core goods turned negative and rent continued to decelerate. Second-round effects have not materialized. If oil normalizes, May cements itself as the cycle peak.
Warsh's first FOMC now carries real weight. Does the dot plot introduce a 2026 hike? Does the Fed treat Hormuz-linked energy prices as temporary or persistent? The oil reversal gives it room. Whether it uses that room is the question.
🔗 Full report: en.macromicro.me/blog/wefc-a…
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Memory chipmaker Kioxia Holdings has surged past a ¥49 trillion market value just 18 months after listing, overtaking Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable company.
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Our Q2 macro scoreboard shows that most indicators still point to a resilient economy. Inflation and central bank pivots may signal some risks, but stable core inflation suggests those risks are much smaller than in previous inflation shocks.
Read more: en.macromicro.me/blog/the-ev…
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⚠️ SpaceX begins trading today after pricing its IPO at $135 per share, raising $75 billion from the sale of 555.56 million shares and valuing the space, satellite and AI infrastructure company at around $1.77 trillion.
Before the opening bell, the key question is not just whether SpaceX pops on day one.
It’s what the market is really pricing in.
We broke down the key signals to watch before SpaceX hits the market.
🚀 Start here before the first trade: pse.is/94pn36
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Jun 11
Friday could be one of the biggest days for the market this year: SpaceX IPO day 🚀
If SpaceX falls below its IPO price, will it drag down growth stocks too?
With a projected valuation of around $1.75T to $2T and a possible $75B capital raise, this is not just another IPO. It is a major liquidity test for the entire market.
Unlock MM Bubble, our AI market tool, to navigate volatility with MacroMicro’s research framework.
🔗 pse.is/96ha6f
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🚀 SpaceX at $1.75T implies 65x P/S on this year's revenue, a premium Nvidia never touched even at peak AI euphoria (28x). Anthropic is growing ARR from roughly $9B to $47B annualized in five months, trading at 20x, half the multiple at a faster growth rate. By every historical screen Goldman has run on 5,000 IPOs, Anthropic is the better positioned between SpaceX and OpenAI: higher growth, visible profitability path, lower valuation.
🔗Read more: en.macromicro.me/blog/wefc-t…
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Jun 10
🚨 U.S. May CPI inflation rises to 4.2% YoY, matching forecasts!
Core Inflation slightly increased to 2.9% from 2.8%.
Energy inflation continues to accelerate, with May seeing a 3.9% increase month-over-month. Year-over-year, energy inflation jumped 23.5%. Gasoline prices up 40.5%.
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May CPI Report: Energy prices surged to 23.0% YoY due to Iran conflict disruptions, driving overall inflation. Food inflation is up to 3.1%, shelter at 3.6%. Core CPI rose slightly to 2.8%, showing underlying pressures are contained. Transportation services up to 4.2%, but used vehicle prices fell 2.0%. Overall, recent inflation rise is mainly energy-driven.
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⚠️Trump: Iran will have to pay the price!!!
Jun 10
🔜 CPI Is Coming, and It’s the First Key Test MacroMicro Has Been Watching
Tonight's first stress test: U.S. CPI
The pressure isn't only on investors who've been tracking MM's data since last night. Trump is feeling it too.
MacroMicro has launched an exclusive indicator: MM Trump Pressure Index
Not a simple sentiment gauge, it's a composite of six metrics Trump watches closely: the S&P 500, U.S. 10Y Treasury yield, WTI crude oil futures, Trump's approval rating, the VIX and the MOVE Index. The higher the reading, the greater the pressure.
Will tonight's CPI push it higher? Here's what MM AI sees:
🔴 Inflation Expectations & Treasury Yields
Markets currently expect May CPI inflation to rise to 4.20% YoY. If the release meets or exceeds expectations, it could push the pressure index higher through two key channels.
🔴 U.S. 10Y Treasury yield
Higher inflation would reinforce “higher for longer” rate expectations. If the 10Y yield moves into the 4.40%–4.60% red-zone range, Trump’s fiscal and debt pressure would increase significantly.
🔴 Energy and oil prices
If WTI crude stays near $100 per barrel amid U.S.-Iran tensions, it would also lift the index meaningfully.
🔴 Equity Volatility and Valuation Reset
The MM Trump Pressure Index includes both the S&P 500 and the VIX. If today’s CPI comes in too hot, markets could face another valuation reset, pressuring equities and sending volatility higher.
🔴 Political Pressure & the Midterms
With November midterms approaching, sustained inflation drags on Trump's approval rating, feeding directly back into the index.
If today's data runs hot, the Trump Pressure Index is likely to climb — and it becomes the key "decision boundary" for watching whether Trump softens on U.S.-Iran negotiations or intensifies pressure on the Fed to cut.
Track the Trump Pressure Index 👉 pse.is/96u8fa
Stay ahead of key market turning points 👉 pse.is/96ha6f
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📊 Headline breadth is running hot. Core breadth has barely moved. For a Warsh-led Fed, that gap provides mandate cover to lean hawkish regardless of what core PCE shows. Duration goes into the June FOMC with nothing to absorb a policy overshoot.
Oil is generating the headline pressure. AI capex is running the opposite direction through semiconductor orders, servers, and infrastructure. New orders are holding. Labor markets are fine. Earnings revisions in Taiwan and South Korea are resilient. Those indicators normally follow purchasing-power squeezes from oil. Right now they aren't.
🧠 Most macro research covers the same public data, after the fact. The Evidentiary is our attempt to do something different: each edition draws on our proprietary indicators, diffusion indexes, and earnings-call intelligence to identify which data is carrying evidential weight in the current environment, and where conditions for a regime shift are building.
📥 Our inaugural edition covers where AI demand is still broadening, where rate expectations are crowding it out, and what the data would need to show before equity resilience starts following the oil pressure down 👉 en.macromicro.me/blog/the-ev…
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