Posted one week ago -- at the height of “let’s free up some funds to buy SpaceX.” BTC’s low on that day: 59k. As of now, the capital rotation thesis (especially re: retail investors) looks correct. Let's see what happens from here.

Worth watching. Lots of insight here.

Businessman visits El Zonte (Bitcoin Beach), decides his airline will establish three weekly flights between Europe and El Salvador. This type of enthusiasm tends to happen easily once you visit the country.

Meanwhile BTC pops a couple thousand bucks. In case you weren't sure that a big part of its recent weakness has been capital rotation and not BTC-specific.

"As money saved diminished like a lump of ice on a summer's day, there was every incentive to eat it, drink it or be merry with it." -When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson

Adding to the post below. It should go without saying that for institutional investors, the now-vanished prospect of imminent rate cuts under Warsh is playing a big role in BTC’s selloff (see gold too). Any expectations of an extended hiking campaign are obviously unrealistic, but since expectations impact price, they will be important to watch. In the long run, we all know where monetary policy is going. Watch what the macro guys say and do on BTC in coming weeks and months. Paul Tudor Jones’ remarks in April about BTC as the best inflation hedge should be required viewing for anyone in this space (see my post on April 28). Note that Tudor has been hugely prescient on BTC; the firm was an IBIT seller in the second half of 2025, according to filings, but Tudor's most recent 13F showed it kept its existing position and didn’t sell any during the first three months of this year. The next round of 13Fs will be interesting and important, especially for known sovereign buyers like Mubadala.

Just in case anyone didn’t understand that this BTC selloff is mostly a capital rotation story and not BTC-specific. Very easy to click “sell IBIT” in the brokerage account to free up funds for this. In the long term, BTC will continue to greatly benefit from creation of an ETF. It also becomes more susceptible to short-term capital rotations by mainstream investors. This rotation should slow (may have already started in the past day) then eventually reverse.

I agree. This is clearly an important factor right now. And institutional mentality, as always, is contagious. I also agree with the last line of this post.

Watch this video. I’ve lived my entire life in and near New York City, which has the best hospitals in the world (I’ve been in them). And this new hospital looks better than any of them. Never thought I’d say that.

Quick BTC update. In the ten years I’ve been here, this is by far the most subdued sentiment I’ve seen. It’s understandable, but the extent is striking -- especially in light of a favorable policy climate in DC, continued sovereign and corporate accumulation, etc. While overleveraged traders are getting blown out on dips, a sovereign wealth fund like Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala is happy to sit on the bid and take it in. For traders and investors looking to take advantage of this type of environment, the key is to watch for when price starts to diverge positively from depressed sentiment. For assets in long-term uptrends, that's when huge percentage gains can happen. This was certainly true for eventual winners like AMZN in the years after the tech bust a quarter-century ago; sentiment was terrible, but price gradually started to diverge upwards, quietly regaining levels that were previously lost and reflecting the long-term underlying growth story. I posted about this in 2023 -- when BTC was 25k, and sentiment was also subdued.

The same thing happened to me five years ago. My only symptom was fatigue (I'm fit, clean diet, etc). I did a sleep test which confirmed apnea. CPAP made a huge difference. Since then, I've become an evangelist for awareness about this (I urged two friends to get tested, which showed severe apnea). I think it's the most common undiagnosed medical condition globally. Many millions are unaware they have it. It can kill suddenly in your sleep, or gradually over years. I think it should be a national health priority. Anyone with risk factors (obesity, snoring) or just unexplained fatigue should talk to their doctor about getting a sleep test, which is easily done at home.

SpaceX today: "As of March 31, 2026 and December 31, 2025, the Company also held 18,712 units of Bitcoin with a cost basis of $661 million and fair value of $1,293 million and $1,637 million, respectively." Pages F-26 and F-74: sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=Bit…

Lots of debate about whether we're in a stock market bubble. Good post by @dampedspring below. In the late 90s, I was also a sell-side trader -- an equity marketmaker on one of the largest desks on the street. We were the "axe" (dominant firm) in many of the names we traded. For a time, I was our marketmaker in AMZN. So I had a good view of institutional and retail sentiment. By the last year of the 1990s tech bubble, we were clearly in a full-blown national mania. There was zero skepticism or doubt. I'm not sure current sentiment is at that level. Maybe it's 1997-1998 instead of 1999. But I'm older now and not as in touch with daily fast-money sentiment as I was 30 years ago, so I don't have a strong opinion on this. Even in a late-stage bubble, it's ok to participate as long as you're agile. You can have an oar in the water and an eye on the exit. Dance while the music is playing. The problem is that many traders get whipsawed in the type of market conditions that accompany bubbles -- especially if they’re smart enough to know it's a bubble. I’ve learned that if you think financial conditions are unsustainable, time (and capital) is better spent focusing on the inevitable policy response to the bust. Example: By 2004-2005, it was clear that a US housing bubble was underway and the eventual fallout would be brutal. So I got bullish on gold around $400. By 2011, after the Fed's policy response to the crisis got traction, gold was $1900. It’s good to be familiar with that gold cycle. As the financial crisis spread in 2008, gold fell from $1000 to $700. It showed that in a crash, everything gets sold. The key is to have done your research beforehand (and have the capital available to take advantage of it) so you’re positioned for the inevitable policy response. So maybe it’s 1997-1998. Or it’s late 1999. Regardless, readers know what I think is a good way to be positioned for the inevitable -- whether that’s a shock-and-awe policy response to a bust, or just an elevated inflation regime (out of necessity) that lasts for years.

El Salvador's favorable climate for investing and technology is getting lots of attention. There's a specific area that deserves to be watched closely: AI. On Friday, the country presented its National AI Strategy 2026. This is an impressive, no-nonsense framework. Focus areas for AI augmentation include education and healthcare. And here's something that readers will no doubt find interesting: "The Republic is awarding 5,000 passports to highly qualified individuals from abroad, with full citizenship status including voting rights and zero taxes and tariffs on relocating families, equipment, software, and intellectual property." The strategy highlights El Salvador's key national advantage: agility. "Our vision is to serve as the world's testbed for the real-world application of Al, moving at a velocity that legacy jurisdictions cannot match." And here's something very important to this industry: "Our near-perfect time zone alignment provides a critical advantage for startups and investors targeting the U.S. market." This document will get lots of attention in the global AI sector. You can read it here (and the ANIA account is worth following): x.com/theaiagencysv/status/2… I've visited El Salvador four times in the past few years. I'm often asked about opportunities in the country by people who want to build or invest. My advice is to visit. Go to a Bitcoin or technology conference there. These events are valuable opportunities to meet like-minded people from all over the world (including many of your favorite Twitter personalities). The country has become a fertile environment for ideas and action.

I think it's safe to say that this filing represents only part of their BTC holdings.

The sovereign buying of BTC continues. In a filing today, Abu Dhabi's Mubadala reported owning $566 million of IBIT (14,721,917 shares) as of March 31. That's a 16% increase in shares from 12,702,323 reported for the previous quarter. This is an important one. Filing: sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=Bit…

Tomorrow is the 13F deadline. Seeing some interesting names pop up. In a filing today, Dartmouth College reported owning $7.7 million of IBIT as of March 31 (201,531 shares, unchanged from the previous quarter). Dartmouth also reported a new position: $3.4 million of the Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (304,803 shares). Just in case you weren't sure if this sector is catching on with the most rigorous institutional investors. Filing: sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=Bit…

In my El Salvador trip report from February, I posted this: "Go to San Salvador’s historic center on a Friday or Saturday night. Have dinner at a rooftop restaurant overlooking the National Palace, while a DJ's soft beat plays in the background. I promise you will feel like you’re in an important place at an important time." That view is in the photo below.

Deadline is this Friday. Should be an interesting week of disclosures.

The deadline for 13F filings is mid-May. During the next two weeks, we’ll see what some closely-watched institutions were buying and selling during the first three months of 2026. Here’s one from Friday. Brown University reported these positions as of March 31: IBIT $8.1 million. 212,500 shares, unchanged from the previous quarter. GLD $16.9 million. 39,500 shares, unchanged from the previous quarter. OBDC (Blue Owl Capital Corp) $16.8 million. 1.52 million shares, a decrease of 53% from the previous quarter. They sold the private credit. They kept the Bitcoin and gold. Filing: sec.gov/edgar/search/#/q=Bit…