Must be the 55th time that its imminent... Trump soon has to define "imminent " and in the meantime he starts to lose control of Bib

Took him a heck of a long time to figure that one out!! Trump To Axios: Netanyahu Has "No Fucking Judgment" But Iran Deal Still On axios.com/2026/06/14/trump-n…

This sounds like the dumbest of them all... just let it sink in for a moment what it would entail. Top Trump Officials Have Viewed Kharg Island Capture As "Endgame" Option - CNN cnn.com/2026/06/11/world/liv…

EURGBP Daily Just in time ahead of the June 18 by Election, do we see a nice dip in EURGBP to start buying the cross again after we did let the longs go into that last hick up in the UK... the GBP bounce has little to do with the confidence or trust in the UK, more to do that there was no point to be too short while we wait for that By Election to happen and the political storm to resurface.... PM Starmer has done very little since to show that he is in charge, rather the opposite, same old boring stuff.... BUT here is the dilemma.. while the current Cabinet is utter useless..... I wonder what will happen when Burnham were to come in and takes everything further to the left, as it seems the Left still has only one strategy... tax those that earn to give it to those that dont work and while we are at it.. also burn it in a few pointless infrastructure projects..... anyway... what I try to say is... the dip into the 0.8590 to 0.8620 cluster is the area to start reloading the cross Key levels to WATCH 0.8590 and 0.8620 vs 0.8700

USDJPY 4h Looks like it is time again to talk to those young quants and tell them that if Risk sells off…. especially to the tune that we did see at times yesterday… the USDJPY should not go up and follow the rest of the USD pairs but should go down (at least somewhat)… the Trump escalation story only came in later but even so, the Oil price just has undone some sell off earlier In the day to which USDJPY did not react at all…. I would still expect in a proper risk off the USDJPY to do the right thing but it seems to me those Quants need to have a look at this….. re the MOF… as we said last week…as long as the broad USD is bid… the MOF might not conduct official intervention but might just resort to the SNB Tactics of being out there quietly and sit on the offer at times, hence why we have seen XXXJPY drop nicely in the last few days with broad USD strength….. a game of chicken at the moment…. US CPI today…. That rings a bell of I think it was 2024, when the MOF intervened on a big US CPI miss, will history repeat itself? Well for that to happen, we need a real big miss today which is almost hard to see…. probably we get more of the same but it could well be that the US CPI might not beat by as much as expected and Core is even expected to see a tiny miss…. Range to start the day.. 159.90 vs 160.50 and I would suspect some MOF Agents to be at 160.50 just to smooth, awaiting US CPI

AUDUSD 4h The AUD remained very heavy… we did manage to get to that 0.7077 pivot but on Monday… yesterday, the market was not that strong to get there and failed a lot earlier and once US Equities started to tank… (firstly with no real news)… the AUD just started to really roll over BUT the key support at 0.7003 held for now BUT not much of a bounce…. of course stronger US data and US yields always hurt the AUD as risk pair but also some Oz Banks start to talk about no more hike by the RBA and then of course also all the fresh worries in the Gulf..not a great mix and the AUD has seen a big rally this year so far vs the USD and in the crosses, hence market positioning is clearly long AUD from the time the AUD being the Darling Range to start the day… 0.7000 vs 0.7055 and 0.7080

EURUSD 4H Not the most interesting markets again despite all that is happening out there BUT at least the levels do a good job….. selling EURUSD into that 1.1575-80 test worked a treat and best not to be too greedy…. I took the shorts back after it seems despite all the news in the Gulf, the EUR struggled to break 1.1530.. hence I cut….. you can only make as much as the market gives you and with the US CPI today and ECB tomorrow, I am quite happy to just chip and charge… and I guess we are best to just respect those levels. As I said yesterday, it feels we are back in that mode where the market just moves and adjusts after a big data beat or miss and then sits… and that is how it feels… we have Geopolitics that might try to push the USD higher but after the NFP induced USD rally, the market seems to be just happy to wait and see what the US CPI brings… big beat, big miss… or not much… in the not much case, we prepare for the ECB meeting tomorrow where we will see the first hike in quite some time and the market might be divided about the one and done which would be a dovish hike… the one and we wait and see which would be a somewhat dovish to neutral hike… or the signal that this could be part of more… we have yet to see and hence no reason for the market to lean out of the window and bet, if we also think we had some form of escalation in the Gulf that we also still have to wait and see if it was yet another tit for tat and one and done or if there is more to come….. I bet for now on Key levels to hold for now and awaiting US CPI later today. Range to start the day… 1.1515 vs 1.1580…. key level below 1.1480 and 1.1505 and key levels above 1.1610 and strong one at 1.1640

Labour win a landslide promising “change”, then: • cut winter fuel allowances for pensioners • punish farmers • appoint a pal of Epstein as an ambassador • massive tax increases that choke the economy and increases unemployment • rack up 13 U-turns before lunch • ban new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea and buy in £billions of oil and gas from Norway - drilled from the same North Sea • get hammered in the local elections • 95 of their own MPs beg Starmer to resign “Delivering for Britain” they call it. Completely unserious government.

The Labour Party is just too stupid to get things right... we need to boost the Defence Budget but what about cutting the welfare bills and take some money from the ridiculous net zero from Miliband... rather than cut funding for Schools and Hospitals.. you could at time think this Government is brainless. The quicker we can get rid of them the better.... Hopefully, if Burnham comes in, he calls for a Gen Election... UK Plans Hospital, School Funding Cuts To Boost Defense Budget - BBG ]bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

There is a lot that makes no Economic sense what this Government is doing, because they have a) no clue and b) incompetent Santander Chief Ana Botín: UK Bank Taxes Make ‘No Economic Sense’ - FT ]ft.com/content/ccf2e22c-9b4f…

🚨 We may be looking at the rarest market setup in 50 years. The S&P 500's four historic drawdowns since 1972: – 1973 Inflation: -43% – 1987 Liquidity: -30% – 2000 Tech: -47% – 2008 Credit: -55% Each one was driven by ONE dominant risk. Right now, all four are present at the same time. 1. INFLATION A commodity supercycle. Energy, metals, agriculture all in multi-year base breakouts. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge has been above 2% for 18 of the last 24 months. 2. LIQUIDITY The largest equity supply shock since 2000. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic raising ~$275B combined. Google flipping from $60B/year buybacks to $80B net issuance. Over $1 trillion of IPO and lockup supply hitting the Russell 3000 in 2026. 3. TECH Semiconductors trading 73% above their 200-day moving average – the largest stretch since March 2000. Climax run signals across the AI complex. Micron, Palantir, SMCI, the SOX index, all showing the textbook O'Neil sell pattern. 4. CREDIT Apollo, KKR, BlackRock, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Partners Group – all gating redemptions on their evergreen funds in the last 90 days. The private credit machine is freezing in real time. Never in 50 years have all four risks been simultaneously present. But here's the part nobody talks about While the AI Big 10 has gone vertical, quality stocks have been left for dead. – Berkshire Hathaway: trailing the S&P 500 by hundreds of basis points – Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Pepsi: trading at multi-year relative lows – HEICO, Union Pacific, MSCI: making boring new highs while everyone watches Nvidia – Healthcare vs. S&P 500: 25-year relative low The last time this happened? December 1999. Barron's ran a cover titled "What's Wrong, Warren?" – mocking Buffett for being a dinosaur, for missing the internet, for refusing to pay for growth at any price. Berkshire was down 19% in 1999 while the Nasdaq was up 85%. What followed: – Berkshire 29% over the next 24 months – Nasdaq -78% over the next 30 months The setup today Four historic risks stacked simultaneously, while the boring, durable, cash-flowing businesses that always survive these regimes have been treated like dead money for years. The math doesn't get more asymmetric than this. Quality stocks aren't out of style. They're being orphaned. That's when generational positions are built. The boring stuff hasn't worked for a long time. History suggests that's exactly the moment it starts to.

Mr Schlegel should contact Mr Ueda.... they have the opposite problems... time for them to maybe intervene in CHF/JPY that would help both Central Banks (and myself haha)

The Labour Govt should urgently review Net Zero.... the UK is insignificant when it comes to the Carbon foot print... 1% of global emission even if we were to stop all fossil fuel tomorrow... but in return... we nuke our economy, have the most expensive energy and buy stuff from those that produce goods with dirty energy... where is there any sense in this ? next to the fact we give up Energy security in a time where the world is at its most unstable..... would somebody please shake Mr Miliband out of his day dream and focus on the real problems please?

USDJPY 4h What is there to say that was not said yet….. the only thing would be what I already put on the chat.. the overnight info…. 160 traded…. Large volume went through there but we have seen no follow through… we have 80 bio USD of option expiries in the next few days but of course not all of them will be around here… so we will go through the close ones day by day……Mrs Katayama was on the wires with the usual stuff.. nothing new there…we have BOJ Ueda speaking this morning my calendar has 09.30 BST…. So that could be important if he were to speak policy with the BOJ meeting not too far away with 19bp priced for a hike in June… the other issue for the JPY right now is that we have a bid USD… with better US data and some broader USD strength that might make the job for the MOF harder… but we can still see some hidden activities in USDJPY as every time the broad USD goes bid… XXXJPY drops… so there is some supply up here…. will be interesting to see what comes next… clearly the market is on high alert with sitting near 160.00 Range to start the day.. 159.50 vs 160.00.. awaiting US Service ISM and BOJ Ueda speech

'It is hard to write down the circumstances of the death of Henry Nowak without crying. Each time I think about how that young man met his end, I find myself consumed with sadness and a sense of raging disbelief' Read @AllisonPearson's full column 👇 telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/06…

Really sad if one has to start doubting what we here from the President and/or the White House.. so much so that one has to almost think that FARS news is closer to the truth than the constant avalanche of Trump TS messages where half the stuff is just not true

Thank you @LiveSquawk and @HarryDaniels71 for having me for the discussion. As always, a great pleasure to be with you guys.

If you think the one on the left is more of a problem for the planet than the one on the right, then you are part of the problem.

Wake up call maybe for the Crypto guys that keep thinking they are in their parallel universe and free of the State.. think again.. if the State wants... you can kiss your Wallet good bye... as I say... there is just two things that is safe..... Cash and have some Gold Coins rather than Bitcoins

EURJPY- Ideally has hit the highs now at 186.00 and has been rejected by the 2026 down trend....ideally this was the top and the area to sell into... stop losses would have to be way above 186.25 as if we break and close above that fib then the risk is that we go to the highs of 2026 Range for now 185.25 vs 186.25