With the Iran war stalemated, the Ukraine war is shifting significantly in ways that could bring peace - but that more likely mean escalation:
1. For the first time in almost three years, Russia is losing more territory than it’s gaining. The battlefield momentum is shifting toward Ukraine.
2. Russia has now been at this longer than it fought World War II. 500,000 Russian soldiers dead, huge economic costs, and international isolation that has forced Moscow into partnership with the likes of North Korea. And all to subdue a Ukraine that wasn’t threatening Russia in the first place.
3. Ukraine’s military position is strengthening, thanks both to new European aid and a domestic defense industry that is cranking out drones and missiles. Kyiv can strike deep into Russia and is doing so. Russian forces, meanwhile, are hampered by the loss of Starlink in February.
4. After years of enormous losses, Russia may finally be facing real manpower shortages. Its losses appear to exceed replacement rates and reports suggest Moscow is conscripting Ukrainians in occupied areas into the fight.
5. Both sides seem to have given up on the United States as a determinative force. Zelensky looks to Europe for far more assistance than America provides. Putin bet on Trump forcing Ukraine into a deal that never arrived. The administration itself seems tired of brokering peace where none is to be had.
6. The war has cost Russia’s global profile dearly. Moscow stood by as former client regimes in Syria and Venezuela were swept away, and as Iran came under massive attack. It played no meaningful role in Armenia-Azerbaijan talks. It is clearly the junior partner to China, with only its nukes helping it cling to great power status.
7. With the costs so high and the gains minimal at best, Putin will now look for peace, right? Unfortunately, no. When Russians can’t solve a problem they tend to enlarge it. That means escalation.
8. I’m just back from Europe and policymakers there are bracing for it. We’ve already seen a major increase in bombs landing on Kyiv. Projectiles have hit Romania. Russian nuclear forces on drill. Russian satellites maneuvering in a way that could expand the war to outer space.
9. The U.S. should bolster deterrence. Leave no doubt about U.S. commitment to defend every inch of NATO territory. Impose costs on Russia for gray zone activity in Europe. And it’d be nice to start aiding Ukraine again. The war is terrible. Its expansion to NATO soil would be worse still.
10. The upshot is that, for all the change of battlefield momentum, there is much more fighting ahead, and probably into 2027. The U.S. is no neutral arbiter in this war. It should help Ukraine survive until the end, and to prevail.