Editor/writer on global affairs. Ex-@CFR_org. SoCal → NorCal (via ATL, Praha, DC, NYC). Area man.

Joined July 2009
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Jonathan Masters retweeted
GRAY ZONE Traders see 1-in-6 odds of a NATO-Russia military clash this year. But the real danger lies in events that will never trigger a YES, argues @MastersJR PLUS: Three signposts to watch for escalation poly.market/l2PWXCK/
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Twas fun to write my first piece for The Oracle (by @Polymarket), on something very mundane: a market pricing the odds of a military clash this year between Russia and NATO. But what are traders really pricing? And what risks lie outside the market? news.polymarket.com/p/gray-z…
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Why the crunch in oil markets has yet to arrive giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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Remarkable trend in global biotech. ft.com/content/ad55ee0c-ae32…
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Interesting trend: Since 2000, the average age of an America CEO has increased by 10 years to 61, according to an April NBER paper. ft.com/content/f24dc56a-7f03…
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Much of disrupted oil supply could return fairly quickly (IF war ended today), but LNG capacity losses will take years to fix. Either way, with the chokepoint now having been demonstrably choked, we should expect structurally higher energy costs. giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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Now would be a great time to send US ambassadors to the Middle East giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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Good reminder that high-debt govs around the world, incl US, running low on the borrowing capacity perennially needed counter econ shocks (ie Hormuz crisis.) giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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A YouGov poll last week showed that just 14 per cent of British people still believed Britain and the US had a “special relationship” and only 18 per cent wanted to be closer to America. By contrast, 57 per cent wanted to get closer to the EU. giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…
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World faces another brewing conflict near one of its busiest shipping corridors. Landlocked Ethiopia may seize the current moment of geopolitical disruption to regain Red Sea access it lost more than three decades ago. wsj.com/world/africa/troops-…?
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“He forecast that crude prices could soar to $150 a barrel in two to three weeks if tankers and other merchant vessels were unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz” giftarticle.ft.com/giftartic…

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