The final 2024 polls included the greatest ever underestimate of the Conservative vote (PeoplePolling 8.4 pts) and the greatest ever overestimate of the Labour vote (Opinium, Redfield & Wilton, WeThink, NumberCruncher Politics, all 6.3 pts). #GE24#politics#stats
There are three families of solutions. One very easy to find, one fairly easy, and one a bit more tricky.
(And then there's the rigmarole of proving that there are no others, which was less straightforward than I'd anticipated...)
#puzzle#puzzles#maths#math
If there are no solutions, why? If there are finitely many solutions, can you list them? If there are infinitely many solutions, can you describe them all?
A plot of Labour & Conservative polling errors in all final GB general election voting intention polls, 1945-2024. 2024 polls in red. Data from PollBase (@markpack). #GE24#politics#stats
Definitely agree with @Dannythefink that GE24 polling miss should be taken more seriously.
But in fairness to pollsters:
- Several averages had Lab at 37-38%, wide on their lead by ~6% not 10. Bad not catastrophic.
- They did pick up late dip in Lab’s vote; it was ignored
A plot of Labour & Conservative polling errors in all final GB general election voting intention polls, 1945-2024. 2024 polls in red. Data from PollBase (@markpack). #GE24#politics#stats
Definitely agree with @Dannythefink that GE24 polling miss should be taken more seriously.
But in fairness to pollsters:
- Several averages had Lab at 37-38%, wide on their lead by ~6% not 10. Bad not catastrophic.
- They did pick up late dip in Lab’s vote; it was ignored
CONCLUSION: The consistency of the polling bias towards Labour and against the Conservatives in 2024 across EIGHTEEN final polls from EIGHTEEN different organisations (at least three times as many as in any of the above examples) is unprecedented. #GE24#politics#stats
Finally, an honourable mention to the organisation who published the most inaccurate final poll in UK election history in 2010 (in terms of absolute error), underestimating both Labour & the Conservatives by a collective 15.6 %pts. They predicted a Lib Dem win... #GE24#politics
Today should be the day we hear if @QMUL plan to save Westfield nursery. @qmulnursery means so much to us so we hope the right decision is made!
We stand with the staff. We are family.
Whilst we wait for the decision as to whether
@QMUL will save or close @qmulnursery. I'm sharing testimonials from the Westfield nursery families. #savewestfieldnursery
"The environment created by the team has made our child feel safe and secure..."
Since WW2, there have been 9 changes of the gov party. Setting aside 2024, in 4 cases govt vote share increased at the following election and in 4 cases it decreased. In only 1 case did a new govt lose power (Feb 1974), and even then, they won the most votes. #GE24#stats [2/n]