Joined February 2017
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- Followers 2,504
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1,264 Photos and videos
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15 Apr 2025
"China is the pacing threat" - bipartisan U.S. policy going back to the first Trump Administration.
I believe that *severely* understates the threat.
China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran are so connected, revisionist, and opportunistic, we need a new pacing threat. A 🧵... 1/10
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May 31
“hair trigger alert”
“qualitative arms race”
“cost-effective at the margin”
Not a thing, not a thing, trash metric, in that order.
What’s a common saying that annoys you?
I’ll go first: I digress
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May 25
President Calvin Coolidge, 101 years ago, on what became Memorial Day 👇
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Apr 30
“To Kill Nations” and “The End of Victory” by Edward Kaplan on early Cold War nuclear plans and strategy.
Also the pre-nuclear era of arms control - anything on the Washington Naval Treaties (see my citations here: nipp.org/information_series/…
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Apr 15
Google suggested the below article had references to terminating a nuclear war.
The algorithm lied, but the consolation prize is great:
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Mar 24
This is staggeringly low male self-confidence.
Can't decide which is crazier - the guy who thinks he could beat a grizzly bear, or the guy who thinks he'd lose a fight to a rat.
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Mar 22
There is a reason countries are shifting more towards hypersonic maneuvering vehicles - successful ballistic missile intercepts in space are becoming routine.
Think about that - this is the tech that critics only 10 years ago (or less) claimed required rigged tests to succeed.
Mar 22
Footage of an exoatmospheric (space) interception of an Iranian ballistic missile over Israel this evening.
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Mar 16
They wouldn’t be cheering if they knew how destabilizing missile defense is in certain corners of academia! 😉
(I know… they respond theater IAMD is fine, but big homeland investment isn’t. But the reasons why theater is good are the same fundamentally as homeland.)
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Mar 10
Adversaries around the world have a front row seat to witness the effectiveness of our missile defense.
Demonstrating a capability (over and over again) is worth a thousand deterrence speeches.
Missile defense does not destabilize - it deters and defeats.
Mar 10
U.S. Army Soldiers are supporting the most integrated air defense umbrella in the history of the Middle East.
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Feb 28
Curtis LeMay in 1968 - pretty early promoter of space-based military forces.
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Feb 19
I believe the “fog of war” is endemic and must be worked around, not a condition to be solved.
Partly because war is conducted by humans who are naturally fallible - and machines (even very clever ones!) are just one more vector for mis/disinformation, poor judgement, etc.
Feb 19
Teaching Clausewitz in my grand strategy class at Georgetown University tonight. My students say the "fog of war" has been greatly reduced by modern information technology. For example, weather is no longer a source of friction. Check your iphone before the war. Are they correct?
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Feb 16
It was either “get a PhD” or join this guy’s gang.
Fate chose me for the former, although some days the latter calls to me.
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Feb 5
"...[in the West], there is always arms control, even without negotiated agreements. Arms are controlled and limited by the West's traditional values, by its political and budgeting process, and by the influence of the media and of public opinion." ~ WVC
Goodnight New START.
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Feb 4
U.S. missile defense is the envy of the world.
As I always stress: missile defense is a deterrent in and of itself *and* a deterrence enabler - it defends capabilities the US can use to impose costs.
Bad day for adversary: attack fails *and* provokes unacceptable US response.
Footage of a Ukrainian Patriot PAC-3 interceptor slamming into an incoming Russian ballistic missile over Kyiv last night.
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Jan 31
Trump's failure to engage with Russia or China on nuclear arms control - and absence of a coherent strategy for doing so - is a dereliction of one of his most basic duties. "Barring last-minute nuclear deal, US and Russia teeter on brink of new arms race" reuters.com/business/aerospa…
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Jan 19
Sitting at home looking at my Amazon book wish list...
Dark whispers fill the air - tempting me...
I peruse all the knowledge I could buy and think...
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Jan 10
Scotland and… Scotland.
Jan 10
Which two countries genuinely hate each other the most on earth right now?
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31 Dec 2025
Sad to hear of Sen. Kyl’s diagnosis.
I had the honor of advising him first when he was a member of the 2018 National Defense Strategy Commission and then when he was Vice Chair of the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission.
Sharp as a tack, principled, and strategy-minded.
30 Dec 2025
A longtime public servant who represented Arizona from the 1990s to the 2010s announced he is retiring from public life.
ktar.com/arizona-news/jon-ky…
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