"My God man! Do you ever think?" People die after they drink water. People die after the sun rises. People die after the sun sets. People die after eating breakfast. People die after tweeting. Does it mean those things caused it? The elderly and frail have high baseline mortality. "Died shortly after vax" in an 85-year-old during a pandemic isn't proof. That's why we use studies, controls, and excess mortality data. Not anecdotes.

🛑 No, Uttar Pradesh didn’t prove that ivermectin works against Covid-19. By the Ivermectín whistle blower. A persistent narrative claims that the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) crushed its Covid wave by distributing ivermectin, and that this “real-world success” is proof the drug is effective. The story has been shared millions of times, used to pressure health agencies and even promote self-medication. Promoting the “Uttar Pradesh miracle” wasn’t harmless. It gave false hope, encouraged people to shun effective interventions like vaccines and masks, and fueled dangerous self-medication with veterinary formulations. 👉 The entire “ivermectin worked” claim rested on the illusion that UP had a strikingly low case fatality rate. Remove that illusion and the data shows enormous, concealed mortality. The people who spread the story had everyone conned. Here’s why... The timeline shows the drop started before mass distribution 1. India’s devastating second wave peaked nationally around 6–10 May 2021, with Uttar Pradesh following the same trajectory. 2. The UP government officially launched large-scale distribution of ivermectin kits (with doxycycline, zinc, etc.) on 15 May 2021. After cases were already declining. 3. By the time tens of millions of kits reached people, new infections had plummeted not only in UP but across most of India. Many states without ivermectin distribution saw the same drop 1. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and others did not implement a statewide ivermectin programme, yet their curves fell in parallel with UP’s. 2. If ivermectin were the decisive factor, you’d expect a sharp divergence. Instead, the second wave subsided everywhere due to a combination of lockdowns, increased masking, natural immunity after the brutal peak and people generally taking evasive action. This is a textbook ecological fallacy 1. Comparing state-level case counts before and after an intervention while ignoring concurrent measures (strict lockdown, ramped-up testing, ring containment) leads to spurious conclusions. You cannot infer individual drug efficacy from an uncontrolled, population-wide event where huge behavioural and policy shifts happened at the same time. 2. Large, rigorous clinical trials found no benefit The supposed ‘miracle’ death toll was a fabrication 1. UP’s official death count was always suspiciously low, but investigative reports have now exposed just how much the state government buried. 2. India later reported on extrapolated data showing that the true death toll in Uttar Pradesh was likely many times the official figure. Consistent with excess mortality estimates that point to a catastrophic hidden toll. 3. Even the medical establishment that backed it later reversed course. The Uttar Pradesh government and some Indian medical bodies initially included ivermectin in their Covid-19 kits. But that recommendation was not permanent. 4. In September 2021, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the country’s apex medical research body, dropped ivermectin from its national reatment protocol, citing a lack of evidence. Hydroxychloroquine and other unproven therapies were also removed. 5. What started as a state-level political showpiece lost its scientific cover when the evidence was examined. The Uttar Pradesh story is not a miracle. It’s a manufactured narrative built on suppressed death data, a preprint that didn’t survive scrutiny, and a political campaign that was eventually abandoned by national health experts.

Write up by Health Nerd.. x.com/i/status/1440131176665…