Reminder that, if the simulation continues to play out, bitcoin:native isn't bottoming until October this year.
Last cycle was a 77% drop top to bottom. It's a little less each time. A 70% drop this cycle would put us around $35-40k.
Some BTC thoughts aka "we've been here before"
I am not a great trader (I let my emotions carry me away), but I am a developer so I like to think I am good at pattern recognition.
I think today was the first time that people seriously started asking "is the top almost in?". I've also seen some people say that we must be "late cycle" by this point.
I'm going to argue that we still have a good 9 months ahead of us and the cycle peak will not occur until October of this year.
One note: because we're dealing with over a decade of data, I used the weekly timeframe for most of this. Measurements may be off by a day or two.
Let's take a look at the Halving 2 cycle.
The cycle bottom occured on Jan 12, 2015, the halving on Jun 6, 2016, and the cycle top on Dec 11, 2017. There were 1064 days between the absolute bottom and top, and 553 days between the halving and the top. The little teal box at the bottom is there for funsies. It represents the time between the cycle bottom and roughly where we are today in our cycle.
Now let's move to the Halving 3 cycle.
You'll find that, immediately, there are some similarities. 1064 days between the bottom and top, 546 days between halving and top, and again roughly where we stand today in comparison with the teal timeframe.
This was a weird cycle that, I think, was caused by Covid stimmy wild inflation. And yet, the top occurred exactly the same amount of time after the bottom as the previous cycle.
And now our current cycle...
First off, you'll notice that our recent dip was about 777 days after the last bottom. We are 798 days out now. Right on track. IMO, we go up violently soon.
Secondly, if we extrapolate 1064 days from the last cycle bottom to find the top, which has worked in the latest 2 of 3 complete cycles in all of Bitcoins existence, we find that the cycle top may likely come in early October.
How high will we go? What will the chart look like between now and then? I have no idea. Will Trump's policies be enough to break out of this cycle? Maybe.
So are we "late cycle"? Yes, I'd say we're about 75% of the way through. Is this the top? Almost certainly not.
NFA DYOR etc etc