Joined October 2025
Photos and videos
8th month of doing mention markets May: $14116 April: $17182 March: $29853 February: $51921 January: $24204 December: $7295 November: $2035 October: $1027 Overall: $147633 Pretty happy with the result I've shown, as I was able to stabilise my profit after it started plummeting. First weeks of the month were pretty slow with only a few good markets, so I started researching other categories like sports, elections, culture, etc. Right now, the share of my mention gains is at 60-70% and I plan to diversify even further. There are opportunities in other categories, just not as interesting as mentions. But profit is profit.
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7th month of doing mention markets April: $17182 March: $29853 February: $51921 January: $24204 December: $7295 November: $2035 October: $1027 Overall: $133517 Wasn't the best month for me. Usually, my main profit comes from secondary markets (Mamdani, Hochul, other new speakers...). For the past one-two months I've seen some issues with volume in mentions and that's a big hit for my main profit source as I couldn't play the strikes i like more and had to choose those that had some volume. So I'm trying to adjust, to find new tactics and strategies. Trying to look into new categories which i find interesting and liquid. Also been kinda burned out after the previous months. Hopefully, I can rest a bit and come back stronger. Seeing my position on the leaderboard that hasn't changed makes me think that I'm not struggling alone.
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Yesterday was one of my best days so far | $4426 I love the days after big events. Cause for some time you get enough volume to realize all your ideas and plays.
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Could've done better considering the volume, but I'm happy that I'm done almost perfectly well in terms of my predictions. My positions were: - Ballroom N - Excursion N - Withdraw N - Uranium N - Ceasefire N - Hottest Y - Stock market Y - Regime change N (on poly) - the only one that I guessed wrong. I wish we had more of such events, but I'm sure this one will bring attention to the category and we'll see good volume in the next couple of weeks.
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6th month of doing mention markets March: $29853 February: $51921 January: $24204 December: $7295 November: $2035 October: $1027 Overall: $116335 March has been a tough month. Everything felt harder. I think the issue is less people were interested in the category in general, but those who stayed became better and competition grew. But anyway, I was able to find enough opportunities and take a spot in the top 20 of the monthly leaderboard and complete my $100k goal for this year. I believe we still should be good throughout 2026 and then we'll see.
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I've seen quite some rulescucks on Kalshi. Most often, I've been on the winning side. And I want to share some thoughts on that. Rules are often imperfect. And that's alright, considering how quickly the category grows, new speakers get added. Unexpected situations are inevitable. What worked for me in these chaotic situations? Understanding how Kalshi's staff will act. The easiest way is to remember how they acted in similar situations. It comes with time, but there's also @bernardbulletin, who compiled a Dispute Bible, which includes many of these situations. Often, unclear rules are Kalshi’s fault. Unclear wording, dates, title, sources, or resolution criteria. And in those cases, resolutions tend to follow patterns: – last traded price – one side wins, the other gets refunded - "common sense" outcome They’re actually pretty consistent and I was able to understand which way the market will go logically. I can recall only one case that felt completely unfair. If you’re not confident in the outcome — stay away. If you are, still manage risk. Because sometimes, there’s no logic. Only precedent.
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Today I finally hit $100k on @Kalshi When I was setting it as a goal for the whole 2026, I didn't expect to hit it in 3 months. This has been a crazy road, which has brought some insane opportunities. I always say that I'm just lucky, but there are hundreds, maybe even thousands of hours behind it. I'm lucky that I have such nice people in @MentionMetrix community. I think 1/4 of my profit was because of alpha shared by the community. March is much harder, but not every month will be your best month. But with midterms coming up i think we'll see some more great months. My new goal for 2026 is $500k and I hope I'll be lucky enough to reach it.
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Been missing here for some time. A lot of grind is happening in the MentionMetrix community. Kinda got burned out after previous months of non-stop grind. But mention markets supercycle is an opportunity of a lifetime, so I still grind, just not being active here. 3k until the $100k all-time profit🚀
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Ave (MentionMetrix) retweeted
Mentions P&L Leaderboard looking like the @MentionMetrix chat today......
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5th month of doing mention markets February: $51921 January: $24204 December: $7295 November: $2035 October: $1027 Overall: $86482 Another crazy month when I was able to show significant growth. So many beautiful moments: Super Bowl, Bernie rug, Bernie rally, 1c play, SOTU. Only yesterday's Trump rally was a big loss. But i guess it saved me from being overconfident. Learned a lot of new stuff. Got to know so many good people. Grew MentionMetrix community to 200 people. Thanks to everyone with whom we spent all this time there. Wonderful place! Shoutout to @radarmentions for launching a great tool. Also helped me make at least $10k this month) $100k goal is close! I'll try to close it next week or two.
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My biggest loss ever | -$4756 I guess I was just too tired of winning😅 It disappoints me, but I understand that it still was an incredible month and I'll keep going forward.
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Ave (MentionMetrix) retweeted
That's A LOT of green from the @MentionMetrix crew. Crazy stuff going on in mentions on @Kalshi right now!
New JD Vance tools are now live! 1 - See historical Vance mentions 2 - Check his past rallies speech structure and when he hit strikes (shout out to @rigatohni for the feedback!) 3 - Four of his most recent rally transcripts in the link below
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Keep grinding | $4711 Flawless day with many nice wins and as a cherry on top - Mamdani speech with good volume and crazy mispricings. Proper research is a must!
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My first SOTU and I did gooood | $8035 Started with -$2k as Somalian was leaked, but Ballroom N was a saviour. Almost caught Olympic N during the mismog, bought only 200 shares and sold at 35c. Almost did the same with Obama, but it was mogged only to 10c, I expected 5c. Should've acted riskier.
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Follow this man! He’s new to this, but his discipline, dedication and patience are on a level that only few have. I expect him on the leaderboards soon. Helped me make $3k on Olympics last week.
My work today on @Kalshi. $3,973 Portfolio $2,235 ➡️ $6,208 Only played one market today. I have named it, "The Olympic Miracle." Full story below. _____________________ After the Bernie Billionaire ruling on Friday I was feeling pretty down and out. I only lost $160, but it hit me hard for some reason, so I took 36 hours off. Part of my down-mood was probably because that win would have put my port at $2,900. Instead it dropped me to $2,229. Why was that important? On January 22nd I left my job to do this full time with a $500 portfolio, and I told myself I had to get to $3,000 by February 22nd to justify I keep doing this. With 1 day left, I knew I needed a miracle, and I posted as much. When the Olympic Closing Ceremony event came up I prayed for something special and the universe answered. I caught one of the commentators saying "Amphitheater" in very beginning of the broadcast. No one bought it, and I didn't know if it would count either, so I waited. For the next two hours I watched and listened as they called it the "Arena" from then on out. When the event ended the strike hadn't been said so I started scooping shares at 4c and 2c before broadcasting the find in the forums. In retrospect I think I could have won $10,000 or more, but I feared another Kalshi rulecuck. The thing is, this broadcast was not set to begin until 2:30pm EST. It began at about 2:26pm and the commentator said the strike at about 2:28pm. Does that count? I don't know, I'd never seen this before. The title of the broadcast matched, but the Kalshi market didn't say LIVE yet because the broadcast started early. I confirmed with some OG's that it should count, but who really knows. The Olympics have been a shifting sand of, in my opinion, inconsistent rule applications given unprecedented and strange broadcast issues. To ameliorate this rulecuck risk, I decided to pretty quickly announce what I found. My plan was to sell into the hype to capture my gains. But I definitely rushed too much. I also feared they'd pause the market and then use the line to decide (which is a rumor going around). I had to get the news out and make sure the line went up. As soon as I announced it, priced spiked to 98. I missed selling there but sold about 1,400 shares around 90 for $1,600 to secure my best win ever. I let the rest ride, and the price dropped back to 50 before sentiment was reached and a static market was landed on in the 90s. I am disappointed in myself for this not being more, and I'm disappointed in myself for not giving more time so my guys could buy more too. Maybe this could have been a $20,000 win for me and thousands for them? Who knows. But I'm also not sure how much more I could have milked this. The market had low liquidity and no one bought my 1c shares either. After getting my 4,400 shares or so at that 4c average, it looked like this began to run into the 6s and 7s so I thought maybe there was another sharp on it. But maybe that was just some confusion of people not knowing the broadcast was done. I couldn't tell. I kind of panicked. I wanted to let my friends know, but I also wanted to protect myself from the blackhole of opaque Kalshi rule decision making that still looms over the markets. That plus recent losses prevented me from taking the cool, calm, and collected approach and putting $1,000 on it to get 15,000 shares. It was a good win, and I'm grateful. I had circa-$4,000 profit when total market volume was only $65,000 which I think is pretty rad.
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Completed my 2nd best week after previous one | $10812 - Olympic mentions were interesting if we forget about those rulescucks. - My first 1c play on Hochul market. - Huge volume on Trump’s tariffs press conference which i was able to benefit from. - Huckabee $15k volume market where i somehow managed to profit $1k. I’m so grateful for the community i was able to build. It’s so nice to be able to share your wins and losses and support others in good or bad times.
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Had a wonderful day | $4080 Not only because of the 1c play on Hochul, but also of the perfect timing of my other plays. For the Olympics, I used the confusion yesterday to get cheaper Ys positions. Today there were a lot of swings cause apparently there were 2 streams with different announcers. Thanks to @alch3my101 I caught Powder Y at 22c. For Leavitt, I had a couple of safe positions and Shutdown N, which I sold at 62c, right before the question on it came up. Idk if it's luck or experience. Took a small loss on Trump. It was clearly a gamble since the beginning, so I didn't put much in it.
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Caught my first 1c play. Was watching Hochul announcement and was following Economy strike as I had Y position there. She said "economics" and the strike got bonded with 7500 shares. I spent a couple of seconds to understand if it counts. Once I decided to buy, there were 2500 shares left. I was very nervous while watching through the rest of the stream and even during the black stream, but fortunately for me, it wasn't hit. I already had such an opportunity with Hochul last week (when Moonlight won $67k), but I bought Billion and Afford which didn't hit then. I was waiting to hit such play, last weeks I felt like I'm ready for it and now it's done. I would say that you just need to miss a hundred of such opportunities to finally learn how to do it.
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Bernie making me rich for the second day in a row | $6232 Started the day strong with Scott Bessent and DK markets. Was lucky that Bessent weaved AI. Then almost missed Trump's market, but when it started, i saw that Ys strikes are underpriced and bought Eight wars, Nuclear and Midnight Hammer Ys. And finally, Bernie. I was prepared for it and had a strategy that prooved to be working in the past. Enormous volume allowed to size up. It was very stressful, but we cooked! Thanks to mentionmetrix.com data and MentionMetrix discord.
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Ave (MentionMetrix) retweeted
How I just made $16k betting that Bernie would not say Billionaire. -------------------- It all started with the research. I was looking into Bernie transcripts, comparing what he'd said at past rallies vs. non rallies. And I saw that he had two markets listed back to back as Fighting Oligarchy Rallies. I looked closer and found that one of these rallies was a non-standard one... it was a sit down chat! That means Alpha.. he'd certainly act very differently in his interview with someone for a sitdown chat, than he does at his very scripted rallies. Fortunately.. my tool (shameless plug) lets me change which transcripts I use for my analysis very easily. So, I was satisfied that I had an edge on a few strikes.. and sized up accordingly. And didn't think much of it... That is.. until an hour or so before. That's when I started looking more into a couple of those strikes, and realized that - Bernie normally posts his streamed events, and never posted - There was no mention of a stream on the marketing material - The website that runs these events had this listed as the first one, with no mention of stream - Bernie did not have the usual YouTube scheduled he normally would The more I dug, the more I became convinced there was a strong possibility that there would be no stream. I sized up heavily in the positions I already had conviction in. And then... I went for the jugular. I bought Billionaire N at $0.06. (Bernie ALWAYS says billionaire, so this means I was pretty high conviction :) ). And a few other strikes.... And... long story short, after 20 or so minutes of the event having started.. no stream appeared and the market reacted. Just in time for me and the @MentionMetrix crew to have bought in quite a lot of N's! --- If you're interested in more tools managing your own edge in Mentions, comment and I'll send you my tools!
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