What’s the bottom for Bitcoin?

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: CPI accelerates to a three-year high as BTC plunges 19% — its worst week since FTX; #HYPE pulls back 26% from ATH $75 amid a massive unlock and FCA headwinds; #Zcash patches shielded pool vulnerability and pushes forward with the Ironwood upgrade. 1️⃣ Macro: CPI Hits Three-Year High, Market Pivots to Hike Fears ➡️ June 10 CPI print: Headline CPI rose 4.2% YoY (prior: 3.8%), a three-year high driven by surging energy prices. Core CPI came in at 2.8–2.9% YoY, with MoM readings remaining benign. ➡️ The June 16–17 FOMC meeting is 98% priced to hold at 3.50%–3.75%. Forbes reports the Fed may strip out easing language, laying the groundwork for potential hikes. Markets have fully pivoted from pricing in cuts to fearing hikes. 2️⃣ BTC: Worst Week Since FTX — $235B in Market Cap Erased ➡️ bitcoin:native cratered from ~$72,840 to $59,100 (–19%), erasing $235B in market cap. The price has since stabilized in the $61,000–$63,000 range. ➡️ Spot ETFs logged 13 consecutive days of net outflows, totaling $3.4–4.4B. BlackRock's IBIT saw $1.29B exit via dark pools. ➡️ Cumulative liquidations hit ~$7B. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 8–12 (Extreme Fear). ➡️ $MSTR sold 32 BTC — its first sale since 2022 — before turning around and buying back 1,550 BTC. 3️⃣ HYPE: 26% Pullback From ATH $75 — Unlock FCA Pressure ➡️ hyperliquid:native hit ATH $75.48 on June 2, then corrected sharply to the $55–$56 range. Three concurrent headwinds: a ~$700M token unlock on June 6, Arthur Hayes liquidating his entire position at the highs, and the UK FCA adding Hyperliquid to its warning list. ➡️ Fundamentals remain strong: daily protocol fees of $1–2M with 97–99% automatically directed to HYPE buybacks and burns, cumulative burn value exceeding $1B. Grayscale and Bitwise have both filed for HYPE ETFs. Whales are accumulating via TWAP at current lows. 4️⃣ BNB Ecosystem: On-Chain Metrics Hit Records, RWA 60% ➡️ binancecoin:native trades at $585–$593. Q1 daily active addresses hit a record 2.71M; RWA on-chain supply reached $3.6B ( 60% QoQ). BSC ranked 4th globally in May DEX volume at $23B. ➡️ Three key narratives driving the ecosystem: AI Agents (BNBAgent SDK), RWA integration (tokenized NVIDIA / Apple / Tesla equities), and World Cup prediction markets ($300K USDT prize pool). 5️⃣ ZEC: Shielded Pool Vulnerability Patched, Ironwood Upgrade Underway ➡️ A critical vulnerability in the Orchard shielded pool (present since 2022) was discovered on May 29. An emergency soft fork deployed on June 1, followed by a hard fork fix on June 3. ZEC plunged 38–57% before rebounding ~45%. ➡️ The Ironwood upgrade targets activation before July. Its turnstile mechanism trustlessly guarantees that total circulating supply equals expected emissions at all times.

Merkle3s 每周回顾: CPI 加速至三年新高，BTC 暴跌 19%（FTX 以来最惨一周）；#HYPE 从 ATH $75 回撤 26%，大额解锁 FCA 双重施压；#Zcash 隐身池漏洞修复后推进 Ironwood 升级 1️⃣ 宏观：CPI 创三年新高，市场转向"怕加息" ➡️ 6/10 CPI 数据：整体 CPI 同比 4.2%（前值 3.8%），三年新高，主因能源价格飙升。核心 CPI 2.8-2.9%，环比温和。 ➡️ 6/16-17 FOMC 会议 98% 维持不变（3.5-3.75%）。Forbes 报道 Fed 可能移除宽松措辞，为加息铺路。市场已从"盼降息"转向"怕加息"。 2️⃣ BTC：FTX 以来最惨一周，$2,350 亿市值蒸发 ➡️ bitcoin:native 从 ~$72,840 暴跌至 $59,100（-19%），$2,350 亿市值蒸发。目前回稳 $61,000-63,000 区间。 ➡️ ETF 连续 13 天净流出，累计 $34-44 亿。BlackRock IBIT $12.9 亿通过暗池退出。 ➡️ 累计爆仓约 $70 亿，Fear & Greed 跌至 8-12（极度恐惧）。 ➡️ $MSTR 首次卖出 32 BTC（2022 年以来首次），但随后买入 1,550 BTC。 3️⃣ HYPE：从 ATH $75 回撤 26%，解锁 FCA 施压 ➡️ hyperliquid:native 6/2 创 ATH $75.48 后快速回调，目前 $55-56。6/6 约 $7 亿大额解锁 Arthur Hayes 高位清仓 英国 FCA 将 Hyperliquid 列入警告名单。 ➡️ 基本面依然强劲：日手续费 $100-200 万，97-99% 自动回购销毁 HYPE，累计 $10 亿 。Grayscale、Bitwise 提交 HYPE ETF 申请。鲸鱼低位 TWAP 扫货。 4️⃣ BNB 生态：链上数据创新高，RWA 60% ➡️ binancecoin:native $585-593。Q1 日均活跃地址 271 万新高，RWA 链上供应 $36 亿（ 60% QoQ）。BSC 5 月 DEX 交易量全球第 4（$230 亿）。 ➡️ 三大叙事：AI Agent（BNBAgent SDK）、RWA 融合（代币化 NVIDIA/Apple/Tesla）、世界杯预测市场（$30 万 USDT 奖池）。 5️⃣ ZEC：隐身池漏洞修复，Ironwood 升级推进 ➡️ 5/29 发现 Orchard 隐身池漏洞（存在自 2022 年），6/1 紧急软分叉，6/3 硬分叉修复。ZEC 暴跌 38-57% 后反弹约 45%。 ➡️ Ironwood 升级目标 7 月前激活，turnstile 机制可无信任保证总供应量等于预期排放量。

Grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto! At least we tried. Don’t forget the road we traveled to get here — the "Big Dipper " will light the way forward. I was planning to take a couple days off to rest, but I saw so many friends losing confidence in Bitcoin and blockchain. So I’m sharing a conversation I had with a friend in a group chat to lift everyone’s spirits! Friend: "When everyone else is talking about narratives, Bitcoin can still talk about passion and belief. But when everyone starts talking about revenue, Bitcoin can’t even talk about narratives anymore!" Chris: It’s the decentralized store of value — Digital Gold, the undisputed king of virtual assets backed by global consensus. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins. Scarcity plus portability. A 4-year halving cycle that runs all the way to 2140. Adoption is rising, states, central banks, and big players are all accumulating. This is already a royal-flush product. Don’t forget why we started. When the price is low, just stack. Allocate according to your own portfolio ratio. One harvest every four years. Don’t forget the road we traveled to get here — the Big Dipper will light the way forward. Blockchain is just a tool. It can be used for good or bad — it depends on how people use it. The crypto space is definitely a mixed bag, but there are also solid people in it like Leon Li, Ramble, and others. We’re now in the institutional era: real-world assets getting tokenized (RWA), stablecoins, assets moving on-chain, etc. I’m grateful for this decentralized dream that brought together so many ambitious people to participate in one of the greatest experiments in human society. Grateful to Satoshi Nakamoto! At least we tried. Bear markets are a good thing! You can grab high-quality assets at a discount! bitcoin:native

Merkle3s Weekly Recap: PCE inflation hits a three-year high as US-Iran tensions escalate, dragging BTC below $68K; Binance launches bStocks to go all-in on tokenized equities, igniting a triple flywheel across the BSC ecosystem; #Hyperliquid hits ATH $74, #HYPE flips $DOGE to crack the top 10. 1️⃣ Macro: Sticky Inflation Geopolitical Shock — A One-Two Punch for Risk Assets ➡️ PCE data released: Headline PCE rose 3.8% YoY (a three-year high), while core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY (vs. 3.2% prior). MoM readings were benign, but the annual figures remain well above the Fed's 2% target. ➡️ The Fed turns hawkish: Powell officially stepped down, and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone in his first public remarks. CME FedWatch shows the June FOMC is all but certain to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. ➡️ Geopolitical tensions drive risk-off: Following reports of US airstrikes on Iran on June 1, BTC slid to ~$67.5K and ETH dropped to $1,975. 2️⃣ On-Chain: Launchpads Cool Off, Pre-IPO Theme Expands ➡️ Pump Fun remains in a slump: Solana DEX volume cratered 82% over two weeks to $18.8B, with new meme coin issuance cut in half. ➡️ Hyperliquid Pre-IPO contracts keep expanding: Following Cerebras and SpaceX, the platform listed Quantinuum ($QNT). Quantinuum, a Honeywell-backed quantum computing firm, priced its IPO at $53–$55 and is set to debut on Nasdaq on June 4. 3️⃣ Binance Ecosystem: bStocks 42 Space Binance Life — Triple Flywheel Ignites ➡️ On June 1, Binance announced commission-free trading of 7,000 US stocks and ETFs for non-US users (minimum $5 entry), with Nest Trading as broker and Alpaca handling custody. Simultaneously, Binance is planning tokenized equities ("bStocks") on BNB Chain via Ondo Finance. BNB surged over 5% to $722 on the announcement, gaining ~10% on the week. ➡️ 42 Space serves as Binance's event-financialization layer, positioning itself as "any event can launch a coin" — the event-driven counterpart to Pump Fun's "any narrative can launch a coin." Sports events, breaking news, KOL narratives, and project FDV ranges can all be tokenized and traded via bonding curves. The platform is deeply integrated into Binance Wallet's "Event Rush" gateway. 4️⃣ HYPE: Flips DOGE — Pre-IPO Narrative Meets Institutional Validation ➡️ #HYPE kept printing ATHs, touching the $74.04–$74.67 range. Market cap reached ~$16.1–17B, ranking #10 — officially flipping $DOGE. Weekly gain of ~17% ($61.50 → $72.17). Hyperliquid cracked the top 10 just ~1.5 years after launch. ➡️ Ecosystem metrics are compelling: accounting for ~44–70% of perp DEX volume, $800M in full-year 2025 revenue, and $2.9T in cumulative perp trading volume. RWA product OI broke through $3B, setting a new all-time high. ➡️ Pre-IPO contracts remain the core catalyst: Cerebras drove HYPE from $40 to $70, and the Quantinuum IPO lands this week. HIP-4 prediction markets are advancing in parallel.

Merkle3s 每周回顾: PCE 通胀创三年新高叠加美伊冲突升级，BTC 跌破 $68K；币安推 bStocks 全面进军代币化股票，BSC 生态三重飞轮启动；#Hyperliquid ATH $74，#HYPE 超越 $DOGE 挺进前十。 1️⃣ 宏观：通胀黏性 地缘冲突，双杀风险资产 ➡️ PCE 物价指数公布：整体 PCE 同比 3.8%（创三年高位），核心 PCE 同比 3.3%（前值 3.2%）。环比温和但年度数据远超 2% 目标。 ➡️ Fed 态度急转：Powell 正式卸任，Kevin Warsh 接任后首次表态偏鹰。CME FedWatch 显示 6 月 FOMC 几乎确定按兵不动（3.5%-3.75%）。 ➡️ 地缘冲突加剧避险：6 月 1 日美军轰炸伊朗消息传出后，BTC 跌至 ~$67.5K，ETH 跌至 $1,975。 2️⃣ 链上数据：发射台冷却，Pre-IPO 扩张 ➡️ Pump Fun 持续低迷：Solana DEX 交易量两周暴跌 82% 至 $188 亿，新 Meme 币发行量腰斩。 ➡️ Hyperliquid Pre-IPO 合约继续扩张：继 Cerebras、SpaceX 后上线 Quantinuum（$QNT）。Quantinuum 为 Honeywell 旗下量子计算公司，IPO 定价 $53-55，预计 6/4 登陆 Nasdaq。 3️⃣ Binance 生态：bStocks 42 Space 币安人生，三重飞轮启动 ➡️ Binance 6/1 正式宣布：面向非美国用户开放 7000 美股及 ETF 零佣金交易（最低 $5 起），Nest Trading 做经纪商、Alpaca 负责托管，同步在 BNB Chain 上通过 Ondo Finance 规划代币化股票"bStocks"。消息公布后 BNB 单日涨超 5% 至 $722，周涨约 10%。 ➡️ 42 Space 作为 Binance 生态事件金融化层，定位为"任何事件可发币"（对标 Pump Fun 的"任何叙事可发币"）。体育、新闻、KOL 叙事、项目 FDV 区间等均可通过 bonding curve 发行为可交易代币。深度整合 Binance Wallet"Event Rush"入口。 4️⃣ HYPE：超越 DOGE，Pre-IPO 叙事 机构认可双加持 ➡️ #HYPE 持续刷新 ATH，触及 ~$74.04-$74.67 区间。市值 ~$161-170 亿，rank #10——正式超越 $DOGE。周涨幅约 17%（$61.50→$72.17）。Hyperliquid 仅上线约 1.5 年即跻身前十。 ➡️ 生态数据亮眼：占据 Perp DEX 市场 ~44-70% 份额，2025 年全年收入 $8 亿、Perp 交易量 $2.9 万亿。RWA 产品 OI 突破 $30 亿历史高位。 ➡️ Pre-IPO 合约是核心催化剂：Cerebras 推动 HYPE 从 $40 涨至 $70，Quantinuum IPO 本周落地。HIP-4 预测市场同步推进。